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Sarah E. Ogburn, PhD (she/her/hers)

Volcanologist with the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP), which helps respond to volcanic crises around the world.

I am a Volcanologist with the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP), which helps respond to volcanic crises around the world. My main role is to develop, populate, query, and analyze databases of volcanic eruption information for eruption forecasting. During crisis responses, I help facilitate and participate in event tree exercises, perform global database analyses, and assess and model mass flow hazards. I am also heavily involved in international capacity building and knowledge exchange workshops, including event tree workshops, expert elicitation exercises, pyroclastic flow and lahar modeling training courses, and hazard map workshops. I teach a module on lahar and pyroclastic flow hazard mapping at the Center for the Study of Active Volcanoes (CSAV) International Training Course every year. Additionally, I developed the IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk Volcanic Hazard Maps Database. My other research interests also include pyroclastic flow dynamics (including ash-cloud surge detachment), geophysical flow modeling, hazard-mapping, and dome-forming eruptions. I am originally from Louisville, Kentucky. 

Professional Experience

  • 2015-present: Research Geologist, USGS/USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, Washington

  • 2012: Environmental Geoscience 101 Lecturer, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York

  • 2009-2012: Research Assistant for the Focused Research Group in Prediction and Risk of Extreme Events, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York

  • 2006-2013: Teaching Assistant, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York

  • 2009: IGERT International Experience Fellow, British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, Scotland

  • 2006-2008: Research Assistant for Dr. Eliza Calder, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York

  • 2005-2006: Geology Lab Assistant, Duke University Earth and Ocean Sciences Department, Durham, North Carolina

  • 2005: Dissection Lab Assistant, Duke University Biological Anthropology Department, Durham, North Carolina

Education and Certifications

  • PhD: Geology (2015) State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York

  • M.S. Geology (2008) State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York.

  • B.S. Earth and Ocean Sciences (2005)
    B.A. Biological Anthropology and Anatomy (2005)
    Magna cum laude
    Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.

Affiliations and Memberships*

  • IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk (CVHR)

  • IAVCEI Commission on Statistics in Volcanology (COSIV)

Honors and Awards

  • STAR (Special Thanks for Achieving Results) Award (2019)

  • College of Arts and Sciences Dissertation Fellowship, SUNY at Buffalo (2013)

  • Great Lakes National STEM Scholarship (2013)

  • Pegrum Outstanding Graduate Research Award, SUNY at Buffalo (2013)

  • Center for Geohazards Studies Student Research Grant (2011)

  • IGERT GI Science Fellowship, SUNY at Buffalo (2008-present)

  • Presidential Scholarship, SUNY at Buffalo (2008-2012)

  • Pegrum Scholarship, SUNY at Buffalo (2006)

  • Graduated magna cum laude, Duke University (2005)

  • Estwing Award for Excellence in Field Work (2005)

  • Phi Beta Kappa (2004)

Abstracts and Presentations

  • Ogburn, S.E. (2019). Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) Eruption Forecasting: Methods, data, and challenges. Invited presentation. Statistics and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute Coupling Uncertain Geophysical Hazards Workshop, Raleigh, North Carolina.

  • Ogburn, S.E., Wright, H.W., Syahbana, D. (2018). The use of global data and analog eruptions during the 2017–2018 Agung eruption. Cities on Volcanoes 10, Naples, Italy.

  • Ogburn, S.E. (2016). Using global data for hazards assessment. Volcano Observatory Best Practices, Vancouver, Washington.

  • Ogburn, S.E., Pallister, J., Wright, H. (2016). Tools for decision making in eruption forecasting. In: Lowenstern, J.B. (ed.) (2016). Abstract volume for the 2016 biennial meeting of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report, 2016–1104, 46 p., http://www.dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20161104

  • Ogburn, S.E. Harpel, C., Pesicek, J, Wellik, J., Wright, H., Pallister, J. (2016). Using global data for eruption forecasting. In: Lowenstern, J.B. (ed.) (2016). Abstract volume for the 2016 biennial meeting of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report, 2016–1104, 46 p., http://www.dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20161104

  • Ogburn, S.E., Harpel, C., Pesicek, J, Wellik, J., Wright, H., Pallister, J. (2016). The use of incomplete global data for probabilistic event trees: challenges and strategies. Oral presentation. EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria

  • Ogburn, S.E., Harpel, C., Pesicek, J, Wellik, J., Pallister, J., Wright, H. (2016). The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) database project. Poster. EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria

  • Ogburn, S.E., Wolpert, R.L., and Calder, E.S. (2015). The longevity of lava dome eruptions: analysis of the global DomeHaz database. Oral presentation.  AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California

  • Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., Loughlin, S. (2013). DomeHaz, a global hazards database: understanding cyclic dome-forming eruptions, contributions to hazard assessments, and potential for future use and integration with existing cyberinfrastructure. Poster. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California

  • Ogburn, S.E., Lopes, D., Calder, E.S. (2012). A new look at mobility metrics for pyroclastic density currents: collection, interpretation, and use. Oral presentation. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California

  • Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., Stinton, A.J. (2011). Ash-cloud surge generation: relative contributions from collapsing lava-dome decompression and fragmentation, and subsequent flow propagation. Oral presentation. International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Conference, Melbourne, Australia

  • Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., and Stinton, A.J. (2011). The effects of topography on ash-cloud surge generation: the relative contributions from decompression and fragmentation of collapsing dome rock and subsequent flow propagation dynamics. Oral presentation. Soufriere Hills Volcano 15 Years On, Montserrat, West Indies

Science and Products

The Volcanic Hazard Maps Database: An initiative of the IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk

In this work we present the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk (CVHR) Volcanic Hazard Maps Database and the accompanying volcanichazardmaps.org website. Using input from a series of IAVCEI CVHR Working Group on Hazard Mapping workshops, we developed a classification scheme and terminology framework for cat
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center

Optimizing satellite resources for the global assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards—Suggestions from the USGS Powell Center Volcano Remote Sensing Working Group

A significant number of the world’s approximately 1,400 subaerial volcanoes with Holocene eruptions are unmonitored by ground-based sensors yet constitute a potential hazard to nearby residents and infrastructure, as well as air travel and global commerce. Data from an international constellation of more than 60 current satellite instruments provide a cost-effective means of tracking activity and
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Volcano Hazards Program, Astrogeology Science Center, Volcano Science Center

Indicators of volcanic eruptions revealed by global M4+ earthquakes

Determining whether seismicity near volcanoes is due primarily to tectonic or magmatic processes is a challenging but critical endeavor for volcanic eruption forecasting and detection, especially at poorly monitored volcanoes. Global statistics on the occurrence and timing of earthquakes near volcanoes both within and outside of eruptive periods reveal patterns in eruptive seismicity that may impr
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center

Volcanic hazard assessment for an eruption hiatus, or post-eruption unrest context: Modeling continued dome collapse hazards for Soufrière Hills Volcano

Effective volcanic hazard management in regions where populations live in close proximity to persistent volcanic activity involves understanding the dynamic nature of hazards, and associated risk. Emphasis until now has been placed on identification and forecasting of the escalation phase of activity, in order to provide adequate warning of what might be to come. However, understanding eruption hi
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center

The 2017-19 activity at Mount Agung in Bali (Indonesia): Intense unrest, monitoring, crisis response, evacuation, and eruption

After 53 years of quiescence, Mount Agung awoke in August 2017, with intense seismicity, measurable ground deformation, and thermal anomalies in the summit crater. Although the seismic unrest peaked in late September and early October, the volcano did not start erupting until 21 November. The most intense explosive eruptions with accompanying rapid lava effusion occurred between 25 and 29 November
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center

Thermal, deformation, and degassing remote sensing time-series (A.D. 2000-2017) at the 47 most active volcanoes in Latin America: Implications for volcanic systems

Volcanoes are hazardous to local and global populations, but only a fraction are continuously monitored by ground-based sensors. For example, in Latin America, more than 60% of Holocene volcanoes are unmonitored, meaning long-term multi-parameter datasets of volcanic activity are rare and sparse. We use satellite observations of degassing, thermal anomalies, and surface deformation spanning 17 yea
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center, John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis

Prevalence of seismic rate anomalies preceding volcanic eruptions in Alaska

Seismic rate increases often precede eruptions at volcanoes worldwide. However, many eruptions occur without such precursors. Additionally, identifying seismic rate increases near volcanoes with high levels of background seismicity is non-trivial and many periods of elevated seismicity occur without ensuing eruptions, limiting their usefulness for forecasting in some cases. Although these issues a
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center

The relative effectiveness of empirical and physical models for simulating the dense undercurrent of pyroclastic flows under different emplacement conditions

High concentration pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are hot avalanches of volcanic rock and gas and are among the most destructive volcanic hazards due to their speed and mobility. Mitigating the risk associated with these flows depends upon accurate forecasting of possible impacted areas, often using empirical or physical models. TITAN2D, VolcFlow, LAHARZ, and ΔH/L or energy cone models each e
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center

Non-USGS Publications**

Ogburn, S.E., Berger, J.O., Calder, E.S., Lopez, D., Patra, A.K., Pitman E.B., Rutarindwa, R., Spiller, E.T., Wolpert, R.L. (2016). Pooling strength amongst limited datasets using hierarchical Bayesian analysis, with application to pyroclastic density current mobility metrics. Statistics in Volcanology, 2, 1-26, http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/2163-338X.2.1
Wolpert, R.L., Ogburn, S.E., and Calder, E.S. (2016). The longevity of lava dome eruptions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 121, 676–686 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012435
Charbonnier, S.J., Palma, J.L., Ogburn, S.E. (2015). Application of ‘shallow-water’ numerical models for hazard assessment of volcanic flows: the case of Titan2D and Turrialba volcano (Costa Rica). Revista Geológica de América Central, 52, 107-128, https://doi.org/10.15517/rgac.v0i52.19021
Ogburn, S.E., Loughlin, S., & Calder, E.S. (2015). The association of lava dome growth with major explosive activity (VEI ≥ 4): DomeHaz, a global dataset. Bulletin of Volcanology, 77, 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-015-0919-x
Calder, E.S., Wagner, K, Ogburn, S.E. (2015). Volcanic Hazard Maps. In: Loughlin, S.C., Brown, S.K., Jenkins, S.F., Sparks, R.S.J. & Vye-Brown, C. (eds) Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, Cambridge University Press, 20, 335-342, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273.022
Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., Cole, P, Stinton, A.J. (2014). The effect of topography on ash-cloud surge generation and subsequent flow propagation. In: Wadge, G., Robertson, R.E.A., & Voight, B. (eds) The Eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 2000 to 2010. Geological Society, London, Memoirs, 39, 177-192. https://doi.org/10.1144/M39.10

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

Science and Products

*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government