Sarah E Ogburn, PhD

Biography

I am a Research Geologist for the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) Project. My main role in the project has been to develop, populate, query, and analyze a new global eruption chronology database (Ogburn & VDAP 2015; Ogburn et al. 2016). The database currently contains several thousand events, with over 14,000 associated properties, at hundreds of volcanoes. The EFIS database system also includes two global databases I developed and populated: FlowDat, a global database of over 1200 mass flows (Ogburn 2012), and DomeHaz, a global database of more than 400 episodes of dome growth (Ogburn et al. 2012). In addition to database development and analysis, my research interests include pyroclastic flow dynamics (including ash-cloud surge detachment), geophysical flow modeling, and dome-forming eruptions.

I also help respond to volcanic crises around the world with the VDAP team. My primary role during these crisis responses has been to facilitate and participate in event tree exercises, perform global database analysis, and assess and model mass flow hazards. Facilitating and participating in international capacity building and knowledge exchange workshops has also been a large part of my role on the VDAP team, including event tree workshops, expert elicitation exercises, pyroclastic flow and lahar modeling training courses, and hazard map workshops.

Before joining the USGS, I received an M.S. and PhD in Geology from the University of Buffalo with Dr. Eliza Calder and a dual B.S. in Earth and Ocean Science and Biological Anthropology and Anatomy from Duke University. I am originally from Louisville, Kentucky. 

Education

PhD: Geology (February 2015)

State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York. GPA: 4.0

Advisor: Dr. Eliza Calder

IGERT Fellowship in GI Science

Dissertation:  Reconciling field observations of pyroclastic density currents with conceptual and computational analogs using a GIS and a newly developed global database

 

M.S. Geology (June 2008)

State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York. GPA: 3.9

Advisor: Dr. Eliza Calder

Thesis: Potential hazards at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat: northwards-directed dome-collapses and major explosive eruptions

 

B.S. Earth and Ocean Sciences (December 2005)

B.A. Biological Anthropology and Anatomy (December 2005)

Duke University, Durham, North Carolina. GPA: 3.8

Magna cum Laude

 

Publications

  1. Syahbana, D.K., Suantika, G., Kasbani, K., Prambada, O., Andreas A., Saing, U., Kunrat, S.L., Andreastuti S., Martanto, M., Kriswati, E., Suparman, Y., Humaida, H., Ogburn, S., Kelly, P., Wellik, J., Wright, H., Pesicek, J., Wessels, R., Kern, C., Lisowski, M., Diefenbach, A., Poland, M., Beauducel, F., Pallister, J., Lowenstern, J.B. 2018. The 2017–18 activity at Mount Agung in Bali (Indonesia): Intense unrest, monitoring, crisis response, evacuation, and eruption. Scientific Reports, in revision
  2. Pesicek, J.D., Wellik, J.J., Prejean, S.G., and Ogburn, S.E.  2018. Prevalence of seismic rate anomalies preceding volcanic eruptions in Alaska. Frontiers in Earth Science, 6, 1-15, doi: 10.3389/feart.2018.00100
  3. Reath, K., Pritchard, M., Poland, M., Delgado, F., Carn, S., Coppola, D., Lundgren, P., Andrews, B., Ebmeier, S.K., Rumpf, E., Henderson, S., Baker, S., Wright, R., Biggs, J., Lopex, T., Wauthier, C., Moruzzi, S., Alcott, A., Wessels, R., Griswold, J., Ogburn, S., Loughlin, S., Meyer, F., Vaughan, G.,  & Bagnardi, M. 2018. Thermal, Deformation, and Degassing Remote Sensing Time Series (CE 2000–2017) at the 47 most Active Volcanoes in Latin America: Implications for Volcanic Systems. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124, 1 doi: 10.1029/2018JB016199
  4. Ogburn, S.E. and Calder, E.S. 2017. The relative effectiveness of empirical and physical models for simulating the dense undercurrent of pyroclastic flows under different emplacement conditions. Frontiers in Earth Science, 5, 1-83, doi: 10.3389/feart.2017.00083
  5. Ogburn, S.E., Pallister, J.S., Wright, H.M. 2016. Tools for decision making in eruption forecasting. In: USGS Open File Report, 2016-1104
  6. Ogburn, S.E., Harpel, C.J., Pesicek, J.D., Wellik, J., Pallister, J.S., Wright, H.M. 2016. Using global data for eruption forecasting. In: USGS Open File Report, 2016-1104
  7. Lowenstern, J., Ogburn, S.E., Farrell, J. 2016. An exercise to obtain expert views on precursors to volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone. In: USGS Open File Report, 2016-1104
  8. Ogburn, S.E., Berger, J.O., Calder, E.S., Lopez, D., Patra, A.K., Pitman E.B., Rutarindwa, R., Spiller, E.T., Wolpert, R.L. 2016. Pooling strength amongst limited datasets using hierarchical Bayesian analysis, with application to pyroclastic density current mobility metrics. Statistics in Volcanology, 2, 1-26, doi: 10.5038/2163-338X.2.1
  9. Wolpert, R.L., Ogburn, S.E., and Calder, E.S. 2016. The longevity of lava dome eruptions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 121, 676–686 doi:10.1002/2015JB012435.
  10. Charbonnier, S.J., Palma, J.L., Ogburn, S.E. 2015. Application of ‘shallow-water’ numerical models for hazard assessment of volcanic flows: the case of Titan2D and Turrialba volcano (Costa Rica). Revista Geológica de América Central, 52, 107-128. DOI: 10.15517/rgac.v0i52.19021
  11. Ogburn, S.E., Loughlin, S., & Calder, E.S. 2015. The association of lava dome growth with major explosive activity (VEI ≥ 4): DomeHaz, a global dataset. Bulletin of Volcanology, 77, 1-17. DOI: 10.1007/s00445-015-0919-x
  12. Calder, E.S., Wagner, K, Ogburn, S.E. 2015a. Volcanic Hazard Maps. In: Loughlin, S.C., Brown, S.K., Jenkins, S.F., Sparks, R.S.J. & Vye-Brown, C. (eds) Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, Cambridge University Press, 20, 321-327
  13. Calder, E.S., Wagner, K, Ogburn, S.E. 2015b. Case Study 17: Volcanic Hazard Maps. In: Loughlin, S.C., Vye-Brown, C., Sparks, R.S.J, & Brown, S.K. (eds) Global volcanic hazards and risk: Summary background paper for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015. Global Volcano Model and IAVCEI, 62-63. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/bgdocs/GVM,%20201...
  14. Calder, E.S., Wagner, K, Ogburn, S.E. 2015c. Case Study 17: Volcanic Hazard Maps. In: Brown, S.K., Loughlin, S.C., Sparks, R.S.J, & Vye-Brown, C. (eds) Global volcanic hazards and risk: Technical background paper for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015. Global Volcano Model and IAVCEI, 181-186. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/bgdocs/GVM,%20201...
  15. Ogburn, S.E. 2014. Reconciling field observations of pyroclastic density currents with conceptual and computational analogs using a GIS and a newly developed global database. SUNY at Buffalo, PhD Dissertation, 318 p.
  16. Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., Cole, P, Stinton, A.J. 2014. The effect of topography on ash-cloud surge generation and subsequent flow propagation. In: Wadge, G., Robertson, R.E.A., & Voight, B. (eds) The Eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 2000 to 2010. Geological Society, London, Memoirs, 39, 177-192. DOI:  10.1144/M39.10
  17. Stinton, A.J., Cole, P.D. & Ogburn, S.E. 2010. Pyroclastic flow modeling in the Belham Valley using TITAN2D. Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Open File Report, OFR 07-02
  18. Ogburn, S.E. 2008. Potential hazards at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat: Northwards-directed dome-collapses and major explosive eruptions. SUNY at Buffalo M.S. thesis, 178 p.
  19. Ogburn, S.E., and Calder, E.S. 2006. Dome-building eruptions: a world-wide summary of lava domes associated with major explosive activity (VEI 4). Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Open File Report, OFR 06-08.

Databases:

  1. Ogburn, S.E. and VDAP. 2015. Eruption Forecasting Information System Eruption Chronology (EFIS echron) database. (MySQL)
  2. Ogburn, S.E., Wagner, K., Calder, E.S. 2014. HazMap database of hazard map metadata. (MySQL)
  3. Ogburn, S.E., Loughlin, S.C., and Calder, E.S. 2012. DomeHaz—Dome-forming eruptions database v2.4: Snapshot available at https://vhub.org/groups/domedatabase. (MySQL)
  4. Ogburn, S.E. 2012. FlowDat—Mass flow database: Snapshot available at https://vhub.org/groups/massflowdatabase (MySQL)

Selected Conference Abstracts/Talks:

  1. Ogburn, S.E., 2019. Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) Eruption Forecasting: Methods, data, and challenges. Invited presentation. Statistics and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute Coupling Uncertain Geophysical Hazards Workshop, Raleigh, North Carolina.
  2. Ogburn, S.E., Wright, H.W., Syahbana, D. 2018. The use of global data and analog eruptions during the 2017–2018 Agung eruption. Oral presentation. Cities on Volcanoes 10, Naples, Italy.
  3. Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., Wright, H.W. 2018. Using models for hazard mapping: perspectives on user experiences and model development. Panelist. Cities on Volcanoes 10, Naples, Italy.
  4. Ogburn, S.E. 2017. Tools for decision making in eruption forecasting. Invited presentation. Statistics in Volcanology: The Hazards of Lassen Volcano, IAVCEI 2017, Mineral, California.
  5. Ogburn, S.E. 2017. DomeHaz and FlowDat. Invited presentation. Statistics in Volcanology: Volcanic Record Completeness, IAVCEI 2017, Portland, Oregon.
  6. Ogburn, S.E. 2017. The EFIS database. Invited presentation. USGS Powell Center Working Group Meeting, Ft. Collins, Colorado.
  7. Ogburn, S.E., Harpel, C., Pesicek, J., Wellik, J. 2016. The Eruption Forecasting Information System: Volcanic Eruption Forecasting Using Databases. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California.
  8. Ogburn, S.E. 2016 The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) database project. Oral presentation. Cities on Volcanoes 9, Puerto Varas, Chile.
  9. Ogburn, S.E. 2016. The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) database project. Invited presentation. Data and Databases in Volcanology Workshop, Cities on Volcanoes 9, Puerto Varas, Chile.
  10. Ogburn, S.E., Harpel, C., Pesicek, J, Wellik, J., Wright, H., Pallister, J. 2016. The use of incomplete global data for probabilistic event trees: challenges and strategies. Oral presentation. EGU General Assembly.
  11. Ogburn, S.E., Harpel, C., Pesicek, J, Wellik, J., Pallister, J., Wright, H. 2016. The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) database project. Poster. EGU General Assembly.
  12. Ogburn, S.E., Wolpert, R.L., and Calder, E.S. 2015. The longevity of lava dome eruptions: analysis of the global DomeHaz database. Oral presentation.  AGU Fall Meeting.
  13. Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., Loughlin, S. 2013. DomeHaz, a global hazards database: understanding cyclic dome-forming eruptions, contributions to hazard assessments, and potential for future use and integration with existing cyberinfrastructure. Poster. American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California.
  14. Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., Loughlin, S. 2013. Two global databases for dome-forming eruptions (DomeHaz and FlowDat): contributions to hazards assessments and potential for future use. Oral presentation. IAVCEI General Assembly, Kagoshima, Japan.
  15. Ogburn, S.E., Lopes, D., Calder, E.S. 2012. A new look at mobility metrics for pyroclastic density currents: collection, interpretation, and use. Oral presentation. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California.
  16. Molle, A., Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., Roche, O., Harris, A. 2012. Dynamic observations of the 8 January 2010 pyroclastic flow from the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Oral presentation. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California.
  17. Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., Stinton, A.J. 2011 Ash-cloud surge generation: relative contributions from collapsing lava-dome decompression and fragmentation, and subsequent flow propagation. Oral presentation. International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Conference, Melbourne, Australia
  18. Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., and Stinton, A.J. 2011. The effects of topography on ash-cloud surge generation: the relative contributions from decompression and fragmentation of collapsing dome rock and subsequent flow propagation dynamics. Oral presentation. Soufriere Hills Volcano 15 Years On, Montserrat, West Indies.
  19. Ogburn, S.E., Calder, E.S., Dalbey, K., Ryan, G. 2008. Modeling pyroclastic flow hazards in the Belham Valley, Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Oral presentation. IAVCEI General Assembly, Reykjavik, Iceland.

 

Professional Experience

Cascades Volcano Observatory, US Geological Society, Vancouver, WA

Research Geologist with the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (2015-present)

Eruption Forecasting Information Systems (EFIS) program research geologist

SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY

Research Assistant for the Focused Research Group in Prediction and Risk of Extreme Events (2009-2012)

Developed FlowDat, a database of 500 mass flows, including pyroclastic density currents, to be used for model input parameters and statistical emulators

British Geological Society, Edinburgh, Scotland

IGERT International Experience Fellow (Spring 2009)

Developed DomeHaz, a database of over 250 dome-forming eruptions and large explosive eruptions to be incorporated into the Global Volcano Model and used in decision tree hazard analysis

SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY

Research Assistant for Dr. Eliza Calder (2007-2008)

Modeled pyroclastic density currents from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat using TITAN2D for hazard analysis

Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Montserrat, West Indies

Paid intern funded by British Geological Survey (June-July 2007)  

Processed GPS data, created models of the lava dome and flanks from surveyed points, and participated in community outreach work

SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY

Research Assistant for Dr. Eliza Calder (June-August 2006)

Researched the statistical relationship between large explosions and lava dome growth, based on recorded occurrences

Duke University Earth and Ocean Sciences Department, Durham, NC

Geology Lab Assistant (May 2005-June 2006)

Processed rock samples for mass spectrometer analysis

Duke University Biological Anthropology Department, Durham, NC

Dissection Lab Assistant (February 2005-April 2005)

Assisted with dissections and skeletal preparation of deceased animals from the Carnivore Preservation Trust

 

Teaching Experience

SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY

Geophysics Teaching Assistant (Spring 2013)

Environmental Geoscience 101 Lecturer (Fall 2012)

Global Environmental Science Teaching Assistant (Spring 2007)

Pegrum Lecture Series Teaching Assistant (Fall 2006)

Evolution of Earth and the Solar System Teaching Assistant (Fall 2006)