Tom Parsons
I conduct research aimed at improving our ability to forecast hazardous events like earthquakes and tsunamis. Specifically, I study how earthquakes trigger others, how crustal movements cause earthquake stresses, and how to convert geologic observations of earthquake and tsunami processes into quantitative forecasts of use to planners, insurers, and builders.
Professional Experience
1994-Present: Research Geophysicist, U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1992-1994: National Research Council Postdoctoral Fellow
Education and Certifications
1992 – Ph.D. in Geophysics, Stanford University
1990 – M.S. in Geophysics, Stanford University
1988 – B.S. in Applied Geophysics, UCLA
Affiliations and Memberships*
Editor, AGU Advances, 2019-present
Editor in Chief, Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth, 2009-2015
Editor in Chief, Tectonophysics, 2007-2009
Editorial Board, Tectonophysics, 2005-2007
Editorial Board, Geology, 1995-2000, 2005-2008
Member: Executive Committee, Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2005-present
Member: SCEC Planning Committee, 2007-2009
Honors and Awards
Senior Scientist (ST): 1/15
Fellow American Geophysical Union, Elected 1/12
Fulbright Mutual Educational Exchange Grant USA-Greece: 2007-2008
Alumni Pillar of Achievement: Golden West College Outstanding Alumni Award (10/07)
Fellow Geological Society of America, Elected 10/97
Shoemaker Communication Award (10/00)
National Association of Government Communicators Gold Screen Award (12/00)
National Research Council Post-Doctoral Fellow (8/92)
Science and Products
Stress, distance, magnitude, and clustering influences on the success or failure of an aftershock forecast: the 2013 M 6.6 Lushan earthquake and other examples
Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M=6.0 West Napa earthquake
New imaging of submarine landslides from the 1964 earthquake near Whittier, Alaska, and a comparison to failures in other Alaskan fjords
Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model
Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates
Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock region
Diffuse Pacific-North American plate boundary: 1000 km of dextral shear inferred from modeling geodetic data
Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence
No correlation between Anderson Reservoir stage level and underlying Calaveras fault seismicity despite calculated differential stress increases
The 2007 M5.4 Alum Rock, California, earthquake: Implications for future earthquakes on the central and southern Calaveras Fault
Reply to “Comment on ‘Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?’ by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist” by Jens-Uwe Klügel
Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Science and Products
Stress, distance, magnitude, and clustering influences on the success or failure of an aftershock forecast: the 2013 M 6.6 Lushan earthquake and other examples
Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M=6.0 West Napa earthquake
New imaging of submarine landslides from the 1964 earthquake near Whittier, Alaska, and a comparison to failures in other Alaskan fjords
Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model
Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates
Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock region
Diffuse Pacific-North American plate boundary: 1000 km of dextral shear inferred from modeling geodetic data
Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence
No correlation between Anderson Reservoir stage level and underlying Calaveras fault seismicity despite calculated differential stress increases
The 2007 M5.4 Alum Rock, California, earthquake: Implications for future earthquakes on the central and southern Calaveras Fault
Reply to “Comment on ‘Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?’ by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist” by Jens-Uwe Klügel
Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government