The Challenge: Threatened and endangered species have to be managed in the face of uncertainty, but traditionally, there has been reluctance to think about adaptive management of listed species. Management agencies with responsibility for threatened and endangered species need tools to help manage in the face of uncertainty, with the hope of reducing that uncertainty.
The Science: We have worked closely with management agencies in the US and Australia to develop adaptive frameworks for management of polar bears, wolves, Tasmanian devils, Florida scrub-jays, bull trout, Mead’s milkweed, and humpback chub, among other species.
The Future: A vision for the use of adaptive management under the U.S. Endangered Species Act was published in the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management in 2011. We are currently helping develop recovery criteria for Florida Panthers, and are working with the USFWS and other partners to develop a framework for allocating funding to recovery efforts.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change
Resilience and risk: a demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears
Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan
Active adaptive management for reintroduction of an animal population
White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range
An introduction to adaptive management for threatened and endangered species
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
The Challenge: Threatened and endangered species have to be managed in the face of uncertainty, but traditionally, there has been reluctance to think about adaptive management of listed species. Management agencies with responsibility for threatened and endangered species need tools to help manage in the face of uncertainty, with the hope of reducing that uncertainty.
The Science: We have worked closely with management agencies in the US and Australia to develop adaptive frameworks for management of polar bears, wolves, Tasmanian devils, Florida scrub-jays, bull trout, Mead’s milkweed, and humpback chub, among other species.
The Future: A vision for the use of adaptive management under the U.S. Endangered Species Act was published in the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management in 2011. We are currently helping develop recovery criteria for Florida Panthers, and are working with the USFWS and other partners to develop a framework for allocating funding to recovery efforts.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change
Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulneraAuthorsErik E. Osnas, Qing Zhao, Michael C. Runge, G Scott BoomerResilience and risk: a demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears
Climate change is having widespread ecological effects, including loss of Arctic sea ice. This has led to listing of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and other ice-dependent marine mammals under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Methods are needed to evaluate the effects of climate change on population persistence to inform recovery planning for listed species. For polar bears, this includesAuthorsEric V. Regehr, Ryan H. Wilson, Karyn D. Rode, Michael C. RungeDecision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and Argonne National Laboratory, completed a decision analysis to use in the evaluation of alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement concerning the long-term management of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam and associated management activities. Two primary decision analysis methods, multicriAuthorsMichael C. Runge, Kirk E. LaGory, Kendra Russell, Janet R. Balsom, R. Alan Butler, Lewis G. Coggins,, Katrina A. Grantz, John Hayse, Ihor Hlohowskyj, Josh Korman, James E. May, Daniel J. O'Rourke, Leslie A. Poch, James R. Prairie, Jack C. VanKuiken, Robert A. Van Lonkhuyzen, David R. Varyu, Bruce T. Verhaaren, Thomas D. Veselka, Nicholas T. Williams, Kelsey K. Wuthrich, Charles B. Yackulic, Robert P. Billerbeck, Glen W. KnowlesActive adaptive management for reintroduction of an animal population
Captive animals are frequently reintroduced to the wild in the face of uncertainty, but that uncertainty can often be reduced over the course of the reintroduction effort, providing the opportunity for adaptive management. One common uncertainty in reintroductions is the short-term survival rate of released adults (a release cost), an important factor because it can affect whether releasing adultsAuthorsMichael C. RungeWhite-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range
White-nose syndrome, a novel fungal pathogen spreading quickly through cave-hibernating bat species in east and central North America, is responsible for killing millions of bats. We developed a stochastic, stage-based population model to forecast the population dynamics of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) subject to white-nose syndrome. Our population model explicitly incorporated enviAuthorsWayne E. Thogmartin, Carol A. Sanders-Reed, Jennifer A. Szymanski, Patrick C. McKann, Lori Pruitt, R. Andrew King, Michael C. Runge, Robin E. RussellAn introduction to adaptive management for threatened and endangered species
Management of threatened and endangered species would seem to be a perfect context for adaptive management. Many of the decisions are recurrent and plagued by uncertainty, exactly the conditions that warrant an adaptive approach. But although the potential of adaptive management in these settings has been extolled, there are limited applications in practice. The impediments to practical implementaAuthorsMichael C. Runge - Partners
Below are partners associated with this project.