Hierarchical Modeling

Decision analysis is widely used in business applications to improve cost saving and increase efficiency under uncertainty. Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC) include world-renowned experts who use data, mathematics, statistics, and computer science to help frame and solve decision problems to support U.S. national security, public health, wildlife...

USGS scientists are using innovative combinations of telemetry, genetics, and side-scan Sonar to support conservation of endangered Atlantic sturgeon ( Acipenser o. oxyrinchus).

USGS is working with federal, state and local partners to develop multiple assessments of stream and river conditions in non-tidal areas of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. These assessments will help managers preserve stream health and improve biological conditions in impaired streams as the human population and climate continue to change in this region.

USGS is developing predictive models to inform sustainable harvest of horseshoe crabs ( Limulus polyphemus) in Delaware Bay to help managers make decisions to support needs of people and shorebirds including rufa red knot ( Calidris canutus rufa).

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Eastern Ecological Science Center is home to the Northeast Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (NEARMI), one of 7 ARMI regions across the United States. NEARMI works on public lands in thirteen states from Maine to Virginia, including many National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges.

The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) is a primary source of waterfowl population status and trend information for management of ducks in North America. The survey has not been reviewed in several decades, and since the last review new analysis approaches and information needs have created a need to reassess the design, scope of inference, and analysis of the survey to...

We are working closely with multiple partners to provide updated information, model potential outcomes, and identify key uncertainties relevant to amphibian and reptile species proposed for listing in the northeast US. We also provide timely science to partners to assist in recovery of listed species, which may involve field research, data analysis, or decision support.

The Challenge: The primary dune along barrier island beaches protects leeward vegetation from tidal fluctuation, salt spray and storm surge. However, storm surges like those experienced during Hurricane Sandy can obliterate the primary dune, transporting sand inland and burying existing vegetation. The dune rebuilds naturally as recovering vegetation traps wind-blown and waterborne sand. The rate...

It is (relatively) easy to construct complex hierarchical models for analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), but deciding which model best describes population change is difficult. We are developing methods for model selection for BBS and other important survey data sets, and using them to refine our estimates of population change from this important survey.

Designing and analyzing large-scale animal surveys is an important focus of our research. Although we conduct research into analysis methods for many surveys, the primary focus of this project is to conduct analyses and develop web-based summaries of data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS).

The Challenge: Research goals of this project are to develop models, statistical methods, sampling strategies and tools for inference about animal population status from survey data. Survey data are always subject to a number of observation processes that induce bias and error. In particular, inferences are based on spatial sampling – we can only ever sample a subset of locations where species...

The Challenge: For decades, capture-recapture methods have been the cornerstone of ecological statistics as applied to population biology. While capture-recapture has become the standard sampling and analytical framework for the study of population processes (Williams, Nichols & Conroy 2002) it has advanced independent of and remained unconnected to the spatial structure of the population or the...