Quantitative Modeling
Quantitative Modeling
A requirement for managing a species, be it a common native species, a species of conservation concern, or an invasive species, is having some information on its distribution and potential drivers of distribution. Branch scientists have been tackling the question of where these types of species are and where they might be in the future. Focus species are as varied as the invasive tamarisk, Russian olive, Africanized honey bee and nutria to the federally threatened Lesser Prairie chicken and others. These and other species are modeled at a variety of spatial scales, from park or wildlife refuge to global levels. Models use various predictor layers that can include current and future climate layers (near- and long-term projections), remote-sensing derivatives (such as MODIS phenology metrics), land cover, topography, and anthropogenic features.
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Feasibility of Remote Sensing Data Sets for Evaluation of Next Generation Fire Behavior Models
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are working with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) to advance efforts to deploy next generation fire behavior models through a research-to-operations transition to enable land managers to use advanced modeling tools for real-time decision making. As part of this effort, USGS is leading an...
Estimating locally relevant scales of effect for population trends of a species of conservation concern
Wildlife movement and distribution can be influenced by local conditions like topography and landscape features, and the distances within which species respond to their landscape – scales of effect – can vary over space and time. We are estimating scales of effect for wildlife population trends to help land managers determine the distance within which wildlife will respond to landscape change.
Fire Behavior and Effects Model Evaluation and Demonstration across Innovation Landscapes.
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are working with the U.S. Department of War (DoW) Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) to demonstrate and improve how next-generation fire behavior models inform land management decision-making for partners within the National Innovation Landscape Network (Innovation Landscapes Network). Specifically, this project looks to...
Fostering greater use of habitat models for managing rare and invasive plants on public lands
Habitat models can provide critical information on the current and potential distribution of plant species, as well as help target and support conservation efforts. Despite their potential utility in public land management, model use may be constrained by a variety of factors including staff access to and trust in models. In this project, we seek to bring together model users and model developers...
Counting America’s Wild Horses and Burros: Better Estimates for Population Management
The Wild Free-Roaming Horses and Burros Act of 1971, as amended, states that, "It is the policy of Congress that wild free-roaming horses and burros shall be protected from capture, branding, harassment, or death; and to accomplish this they are to be considered in the area where presently found, as an integral part of the natural system of the public lands (PL 92-195, Sec. 1331, Congressional...
INHABIT: A web tool for invasive plant management across the contiguous United States
INHABIT is a desktop-optimized web application and decision support tool with mapped and tabular summaries of habitat suitability models for over two hundred fifty terrestrial invasive plant species of management concern across the contiguous United States. It is the product of a scientist-practitioner partnership and is designed to facilitate enhanced invasive species management actions...
Assessing vegetation and avian community response to juniper reduction treatments in Southwest Montana
The Southwest Montana Sagebrush Partnership (SMSP) team, including land managers, landowners, and scientists, is implementing conifer removal projects encompassing over 55,000 acres of private, state, and federal lands throughout the region. To date, little place-based information exists regarding likely vegetation and bird responses to such treatments in Southwestern Montana. To address this...
Mapping wild horse densities across broad landscapes of the Western United States
Researchers at USGS are using historical wild horse survey and monitoring records to conduct a study of horse density across sagebrush ecosystems of the western United States. Researchers will develop generalized density maps for the species that will enhance concurrent evaluations into the ecological effects of wild horse populations.
Developing a step-by-step process for assessing cumulative effects in the Bureau of Land Management
The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires federal agencies to assess potential impacts of proposed actions as part of their decision-making processes. Assessing potential cumulative effects is a challenging component of NEPA analyses. The USGS is working with the Bureau of Land Management to develop a process that public land managers can use to strengthen cumulative effects analyses.
Predicting Recovery of Sagebrush Ecosystems Across the Sage-grouse Range from Remotely Sensed Vegetation Data
USGS researchers are using remote-sensing and other broadscale datasets to study and predict recovery of sagebrush across the sage-grouse range, assessing influence of disturbance, restoration treatments, soil moisture, and other ecological conditions on trends in sagebrush cover. The results will be used to inform conservation prioritization models, economic analyses, projections of future...
Developing habitat models for rare plants to inform decision making on multiple-use public lands
Public lands provide important habitat for many rare plants. However, public lands often need to accommodate many other uses, including traditional and renewable energy development, in addition to conservation. We are working with the Bureau of Land Management to coproduce ensemble habitat suitability models that can inform agency planning and permitting decisions that may impact rare plants.
Gunnison Sage-grouse Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET)
In partnership with the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, and other partners, scientists from USGS Fort Collins Science Center are working to create a suite of prioritization scenarios that will inform adaptive management for Gunnison sage-grouse.