Quantitative Modeling
Quantitative Modeling
A requirement for managing a species, be it a common native species, a species of conservation concern, or an invasive species, is having some information on its distribution and potential drivers of distribution. Branch scientists have been tackling the question of where these types of species are and where they might be in the future. Focus species are as varied as the invasive tamarisk, Russian olive, Africanized honey bee and nutria to the federally threatened Lesser Prairie chicken and others. These and other species are modeled at a variety of spatial scales, from park or wildlife refuge to global levels. Models use various predictor layers that can include current and future climate layers (near- and long-term projections), remote-sensing derivatives (such as MODIS phenology metrics), land cover, topography, and anthropogenic features.
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Modeling Songbird Density-Habitat Relationships to Predict Population Responses to Environmental Change Within Pinyon-juniper and Sagebrush Ecosystems
Within areas of overlapping sagebrush and pinyon-juniper ecosystems, wildlife populations are declining due to habitat fragmentation and degradation, changing environments, and human development. However, management to bolster species associated with one ecosystem may result in negative consequences for species associated with the other. Thus, land managers are challenged with balancing which...
Linking post-fire sagebrush restoration and sage-grouse habitat recovery
Many revegetation projects are intended to benefit focal wildlife species. Yet, few scope the ability of revegetation efforts to yield habitat. To investigate the ability of alternative sagebrush planting strategies to recover habitat conditions for wildlife like sage-grouse, USGS and Colorado State University scientists developed a spatial vegetation-habitat recovery model. Scientists combined...
Prioritizing sagebrush protection and restoration within the upper Colorado River Basin
Arid shrublands of western North America face growing threats from disturbances such as wildfire, drought, and invasive species. These threats are increasingly altering the sagebrush ( Artemisia species) biome and degrading habitat for species of conservation concern such as greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus). Effective management and restoration are needed to slow or reverse these...
Understanding the use of habitat models for managing and conserving rare plants on western public lands
The use of rare plant habitat models in land management decisions can be constrained by issues surrounding data access, model quality, and institutional capacity, among other factors. This project seeks to understand challenges associated with using habitat models and explore avenues for addressing these challenges to facilitate greater use of habitat models in public lands decision making.
Spatiotemporal conditions of vegetation and invasive plant species on mine lands.
To support the Department of Interior's bureaus, states, and local communities, we are developing 1) a document highlighting remote sensing approaches that can be leveraged for site prioritization, recovery design, and long-term assessments of recovery trends, and 2) data products of vegetation conditions, change, recovery potential, and risk of exotic plant invasion on mine lands. We will...
Developing science syntheses to facilitate climate-informed land management decisions and NEPA analyses on rangelands in the sagebrush biome
The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires federal public land managers to assess potential environmental impacts of proposed actions. The USGS, Bureau of Land Management, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Colorado State University, and North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center are working together to develop science syntheses that can facilitate considerations of climate change in...
Road Ecology
Roads and their associated infrastructure can cause substantial and pervasive effects on adjacent ecosystems but are necessary for the movement and redistribution of goods, people, wealth, and natural resources in modern societies. The Fort Collins Science Center has initiated research looking at how roads and traffic may be impacting sagebrush ecosystems and the wildlife inhabiting them. This...
Understanding Population Trends for the Gunnison Sage-Grouse to Inform Adaptive Management
In partnership with the Bureau of Land Management and Colorado Parks and Wildlife, scientists from USGS Fort Collins Science Center and Western Ecological Research Center are applying a hierarchical monitoring framework to Gunnison sage-grouse ( Centrocercus minimus) to evaluate population trends and inform adaptive management.
Wild horse and livestock influences on vegetation and wildlife in sagebrush ecosystems: Implications for refining and validating Appropriate Management Level (AML)
USGS researchers are conducting a comprehensive study of wild horse and livestock records across the greater sage-grouse range to investigate impacts on vegetation and wildlife (specifically, sage-grouse and songbirds). Researchers will use these results to evaluate Appropriate Management Levels for wild horse and burros, and projections of vegetation productivity under changing conditions.
Using simulation models to project and evaluate post-fire success in restoring sage-grouse habitat over large landscapes
Wildfires are increasingly destroying wildlife habitat in sagebrush ( Artemisia species) ecosystems, and managers need approaches to scope the pace and degree to which post-fire restoration actions can re-create habitat in dynamic landscapes. Sagebrush recovery takes a long time, and it can be difficult to anticipate restoration outcomes over large, diverse landscapes that have experienced decades...
Simulating the influence of sagebrush restoration on post-fire sage-grouse population recovery
Increased wildfire-induced loss of sagebrush in North American shrublands are outpacing natural recovery and leading to substantial habitat loss for sagebrush-obligate species like sage-grouse. Transplanting sagebrush ( Artemisia species) is a possible strategy for revegetating burned areas, but little is known about sage-grouse or other wildlife responses to restoration strategies.
Mapping Grassland Bird Community Distribution under a Changing Landscape
Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, and University of Arizona are studying the distribution of grassland bird communities across the western Great Plains to anticipate how species distributions may respond to a changing landscape.