Publications
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A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective
We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly...
Authors
Edward H. Field, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Bruce E. Shaw, Morgan T. Page, P. Martin Mai, Kevin Ross Milner, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Frederick Pollitz, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Thomas E. Parsons, Olaf Zielke, David R. Shelly, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Devin McPhillips, Richard W. Briggs, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nico Luco, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Justin Rubinstein, Allison Shumway, Nicholas van der Elst, Yuehua Zeng, Christopher DuRoss, Jason M. Altekruse
Improved prediction of postfire debris flows through rainfall anomaly maps Improved prediction of postfire debris flows through rainfall anomaly maps
Predicting where runoff-generated debris flows might occur during rainfall on steep, recently burned terrain is challenging. Studies of mass-movement processes in unburned areas indicate that event locations are well-predicted by rainfall anomaly, R*, in which peak observed rainfall is normalized by local rainfall climatology. Here, we use remote and field methods to map debris flows...
Authors
David B. Cavagnaro, Scott W. McCoy, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Donald N. Lindsay
Landsliding follows signatures of wildfire history and vegetative regrowth in a steep coastal shrubland Landsliding follows signatures of wildfire history and vegetative regrowth in a steep coastal shrubland
Five years after the deadly and destructive 9 January 2018 Montecito debris flows (Santa Barbara County, California, USA), an atmospheric river storm on 9 January 2023 triggered widespread landsliding that affected many of the same drainages in the Santa Ynez Mountains. Using high-resolution aerial imagery, we identified >10,000 landslides over an ∼160 km2 area. Most of the landslides...
Authors
Matthew A. Thomas, Donald N. Lindsay, Jason W. Kean, Andrew Paul Graber, Rebecca K. Rossi, Jaime Kostelnik, Francis K. Rengers, Jonathan Y. Schwartz, Brian J. Swanson, Nina S. Oakley, Paul W. Richardson, Alexander E. Morelan, Andrew C. Ritchie, Jonathan A. Warrick, Lindsey L. Rotche, Brian D. Penserini, Stephen L. Slaughter
Dynamic feedbacks between river meandering and landsliding in northwestern Washington glacial terraces Dynamic feedbacks between river meandering and landsliding in northwestern Washington glacial terraces
Landsliding in river valleys poses unique risks for cascading hazards and can damage infrastructure and cause fatalities. In postglacial valleys, many landslides are posited to occur in relation to lateral river erosion, but the dynamics of fluvial-hillslope interactions are not well understood. Here, we investigate a section of the Nooksack River in western Washington State where the...
Authors
Shelby Marie Ahrendt, Benjamin Mirus, Sean Richard LaHusen, Jonathan Patrick Perkins
Site response and wave propagation effects in the eastern United States Site response and wave propagation effects in the eastern United States
Fourier amplitude spectra from regional earthquakes in the eastern United States are used in a parametric inversion for source, path, and site effects. Five earthquakes are selected for analysis during the installation of the United States National Seismic Network (US), Earthscope’s USArray Transportable Array (TA), and other temporary arrays to maximize station coverage. A global search...
Authors
Stephen H. Hartzell, Luis B. Martinetti, Carlos Mendoza, Robert G. Schmitt
Forecast, monitor, adapt: A multi-agency strategy to protect people from postfire debris flows Forecast, monitor, adapt: A multi-agency strategy to protect people from postfire debris flows
In 2020, a wildfire burned across Glenwood Canyon in Colorado, USA. A history of postfire debris flows in the region and a hazard assessment for the burn area indicated that potentially life-threatening debris flows could be triggered by rainfall within months of a wildfire. As a result, four government agencies evaluated strategies to help mitigate hazards, including the loss of human...
Authors
Francis K. Rengers, Jason W. Kean, Cory A. Williams, Mark F. Henneberg, John R. Banta, Eric Schroder, Cara Sponaugle, David Callery, Erin Walter, Todd Blake, Dennis M. Staley
Constraining landslide frequency across the United States to inform county-level risk reduction Constraining landslide frequency across the United States to inform county-level risk reduction
Informative landslide hazard estimates are needed to support landslide mitigation strategies to reduce landslide risk across the United States. Whereas existing national-scale landslide susceptibility products assess where landslides are likely to occur, they do not address how often, which is a critical element of landslide hazard and risk assessments. In particular, the U.S. Federal...
Authors
Lisa Victoria Luna, Jacob Woodard, Janice L. Bytheway, Gina Belair, Benjamin B. Mirus
The impact of the May 1921 superstorm on American telecommunication systems The impact of the May 1921 superstorm on American telecommunication systems
A compilation is presented of impacts (interference and damage) realized on long-line telegraph and telephone systems across North America during the 13-16 May 1921 magnetic storm. Impacts occurred primarily during local nighttime, after the third of four sudden commencements, and during the storm’s most-prominent main phase. Impacts are attributed to rapid and high-amplitude geomagnetic...
Authors
Jeffrey J. Love, Greg M. Lucas, Anna Kelbert, Neesha R. Schnepf, Paul A. Bedrosian, Sara K. McBride
Long-term dynamics of earthquake swarms in the Yellowstone caldera Long-term dynamics of earthquake swarms in the Yellowstone caldera
The factors controlling the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of earthquake swarms in volcanic systems remain unclear. We leverage leading-edge deep learning algorithms and a detailed three-dimensional velocity model to construct a 15-year high-resolution earthquake catalog of the Yellowstone caldera region. More than half of the region’s earthquakes are clustered into swarm...
Authors
Manuel Florez, Bing Q. Li, David R. Shelly, Mia Angulo, Jose Sanabria-Gomez
Estimating earthquake source depth using teleseismic broadband waveform modeling at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center Estimating earthquake source depth using teleseismic broadband waveform modeling at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center
The U.S. Geologic Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) monitors global seismicity, producing a catalog of earthquake source parameters in near-real-time to provide information that can help mitigate the societal impact of earthquakes. The NEIC commonly relies on teleseismic observations to constrain earthquake source parameters (e.g., location, depth, magnitude, and...
Authors
William L. Yeck, Robert B. Herrmann, John Patton, William D. Barnhart, Harley M. Benz
2024 Surprise Inlet landslides: Insights from a prototype landslide‐triggered tsunami monitoring system in Prince William Sound, Alaska 2024 Surprise Inlet landslides: Insights from a prototype landslide‐triggered tsunami monitoring system in Prince William Sound, Alaska
Alaska's coastal communities face growing landslide hazards owing to glacier retreat and extreme weather intensified by the warming climate, yet hazard monitoring remains challenging. As part of ongoing experimental monitoring in Prince William Sound, we detected three large landslides (0.5–2.3 M m3) at Surprise Inlet on 20 September 2024, within the span of an hour. These events were...
Authors
Ezgi Karasozen, Michael E. West, Katherine R. Barnhart, John J. Lyons, Terry Nichols, Lauren N. Schaefer, Bohyun Bahng, Summer Ohlendorf, Dennis M. Staley, Gabriel J. Wolken
Quantitative evaluations of earthquake early warning performance using “Did You Feel It?” and post-alert surveys Quantitative evaluations of earthquake early warning performance using “Did You Feel It?” and post-alert surveys
We examine responses to the U.S. Geological Survey’s “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) survey and its companion earthquake early warning (EEW) questionnaire to assess the performance of the U.S. ShakeAlert EEW system directly from the alert recipients’ perspectives. ShakeAlert rapidly detects earthquakes and develops alert information, but as official alert delivery partners issue these alerts...
Authors
Jessie K. Saunders, David J. Wald