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Publications

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The influence of anthropogenic regulation and evaporite dissolution on earthquake-triggered ground failure The influence of anthropogenic regulation and evaporite dissolution on earthquake-triggered ground failure

Remote sensing observations of Searles Lake following the 2019 moment magnitude 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake reveal an area where surface ejecta is arranged in a repeating hexagonal pattern that is collocated with a solution-mining operation. By analyzing geologic and geotechnical data, here we show that the hexagonal surface ejecta is likely not a result of liquefaction...
Authors
Paula Madeline Burgi, Eric M. Thompson, Kate E. Allstadt, Kyle Dennis Murray, Henry Mason, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Devin Katzenstein

Background seismic noise levels among the Caribbean network and the role of station proximity to coastline Background seismic noise levels among the Caribbean network and the role of station proximity to coastline

The amplitude and frequency content of background seismic noise is highly variable with geographic location. Understanding the characteristics and behavior of background seismic noise as a function of location can inform approaches to improve network performance and in turn increase earthquake detection capabilities. Here, we calculate power spectral density estimates in one‐hour windows...
Authors
Justin T. Wilgus, Adam T. Ringler, Brandon Schmandt, David C. Wilson, Robert E. Anthony

Making phase-picking neural networks more consistent and interpretable Making phase-picking neural networks more consistent and interpretable

Improving the interpretability of phase‐picking neural networks remains an important task to facilitate their deployment to routine, real‐time seismic monitoring. The popular phase‐picking neural networks published in the literature lack interpretability because their output prediction scores do not necessarily correspond with the reliability of phase picks and can even be highly...
Authors
Yongsoo Park, Brent G. Delbridge, David R. Shelly

Subduction intraslab-interface fault interactions in the 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California earthquake sequence Subduction intraslab-interface fault interactions in the 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California earthquake sequence

The Mendocino triple junction, the intersection of the Pacific, North American, and Gorda plates, activates a collection of disparate faults that reconcile Cascadia subduction with San Andreas transform motion. The December 20, 2022, Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California earthquake occurred within this complex zone as strike-slip faulting within the subducting Gorda slab. Here, we analyze the...
Authors
David R. Shelly, Dara Elyse Goldberg, Kathryn Zerbe Materna, Robert John Skoumal, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Clara Yoon, William L. Yeck, Paul S. Earle

Modeling protective action decision-making in earthquakes by using explainable machine learning and video data Modeling protective action decision-making in earthquakes by using explainable machine learning and video data

Earthquakes pose substantial threats to communities worldwide. Understanding how people respond to the fast-changing environment during earthquakes is crucial for reducing risks and saving lives. This study aims to study people’s protective action decision-making in earthquakes by leveraging explainable machine learning and video data. Specifically, this study first collected real-world...
Authors
Xiaojian Zhang, Xilei Zhao, Dare Baldwin, Sara K. McBride, Josephine Bellizzi, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nicolas Luco, Matthew Wood, Thomas J. Cova

California community Earth Models for Seismic Hazard Assessments workshop report California community Earth Models for Seismic Hazard Assessments workshop report

The California Community Earth Models for Seismic Hazard Assessments Workshop (https://www.scec.org/workshops/2024/california-community-models) was held online March 4–5, 2024, with more than 200 participants over the two days. In this report, we provide a summary of the key points from the presentations and discussions. We highlight three use cases that drive the development of...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, Scott Marshall, Sarah E. Minson, Dan Boyd, Marine A. Denolle, Eric J. Fielding, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Christine A Goulet, Russell Graymer, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Evan Tyler Hirakawa, Tran Huynh, Lorraine Hwang, Karen Luttrell, Kathryn Materna, Laurent Montesi, Michael Oskin, Arthur Rodgers, Arben Pitarka, Judy Zachariasen

The 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground-motion characterization for the conterminous United States The 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground-motion characterization for the conterminous United States

We update the ground-motion characterization for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. The update includes the use of new ground-motion models (GMMs) in the Cascadia subduction zone; an adjustment to the central and eastern United States (CEUS) GMMs to reduce misfits with observed data; an updated boundary for the application of GMMs for...
Authors
Morgan P. Moschetti, Brad T. Aagaard, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Jason M. Altekruse, Oliver S. Boyd, Arthur D. Frankel, Julie A. Herrick, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison Shumway, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Kyle Withers

Examining the connections between earthquake swarms, crustal fluids, and large earthquakes in the context of the 2020-2024 Noto Peninsula, Japan, earthquake sequence Examining the connections between earthquake swarms, crustal fluids, and large earthquakes in the context of the 2020-2024 Noto Peninsula, Japan, earthquake sequence

Earthquake swarms are most commonly composed of small-magnitude earthquakes – those that may in some cases be felt but without causing damage. However, a recent study by Yoshida et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106023) analyzed a swarm beneath the Noto Peninsula in Japan that, after more than two years of moderate-magnitude seismicity, triggered the moment magnitude (Mw) 6.2...
Authors
David R. Shelly

Liquefaction timing and post-triggering seismic energy: A comparison of crustal and subduction zone earthquakes Liquefaction timing and post-triggering seismic energy: A comparison of crustal and subduction zone earthquakes

The objective of the study is to assess when liquefaction is triggered in a suite of ground motions following simplified approaches and measure the remaining post-triggering energy content of those ground motions. For liquefaction-induced deformations, current simplified analysis procedures do not directly incorporate temporal effects and rely on peak transient intensity measurements...
Authors
Trevor J. Carey, Atira Naik, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry Mason

Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes

Predicting the recurrence times of earthquakes and understanding the physical processes that immediately precede them are two outstanding problems in seismology. Although geodetic measurements record elastic strain accumulation, most faults have recurrence intervals longer than available measurements. Foreshocks provide the principal observations of processes before mainshocks, but...
Authors
Paul Segall, Mark V. Matthews, David R. Shelly, Taiyi Wang, Kyle R. Anderson

Findings from a decade of ground motion simulation validation research and a path forward Findings from a decade of ground motion simulation validation research and a path forward

Simulated ground motions have the potential to advance seismic hazard assessments and structural response analyses, particularly for conditions with limited recorded ground motions such as large magnitude earthquakes at short source-to-site distances. However, rigorous validation of simulated ground motions is needed for hazard analysts, practicing engineers, or regulatory bodies to be...
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Jonathan P. Stewart, Nico Luco, Christine A. Goulet

Earthquake rupture forecast model construction for the 2023 U.S. 50‐State National Seismic Hazard Model Update: Central and eastern U.S. fault‐based source model Earthquake rupture forecast model construction for the 2023 U.S. 50‐State National Seismic Hazard Model Update: Central and eastern U.S. fault‐based source model

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2023 50‐State National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), we make modest revisions and additions to the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS) fault‐based seismic source model that result in locally substantial hazard changes. The CEUS fault‐based source model was last updated as part of the 2014 NSHM and considered new information from the Seismic Source
Authors
Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Gabriel Toro, Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Julie A. Herrick, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Demi Leafar Girot
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