Publications

We describe a lightweight, accurate nowcasting model for electron flux levels measured by the Van Allen probes. Largely motivated by Rigler et al. (2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003SW000036), we turn to a time‐varying linear filter of previous flux levels and Kp. We train and test this model on data gathered from the 2.10 MeV channel of the Relativistic Electron‐Proton Telescope sensor...

We analyze a comprehensive database of ∼63,000 geocoded community intensity observations from >400 earthquakes of moment magnitude M≥3.5 in Oklahoma from 2010 to 2016 to define the intensity signature of induced events. We show that natural and induced events have similar average intensities within 10 km of the epicenter. At greater distances, induced events have low‐average intensities...

During the winter of 2014, a weak polar vortex brought record cold temperatures to the north‐central (“Midwest”) United States, and the Great Lakes reached the highest extent of ice coverage (92.5%) since 1979. This event shut down the generation of seismic signals caused by wind‐driven wave action within the lakes (termed “lake microseisms”), giving an unprecedented opportunity to...

The waveforms generated by the 2014 Long Valley Caldera earthquake swarm recorded at station MLH show clear reflected waves that are often stronger than direct P and S waves. With waveform analyses, we discover that these waves are reflected at the top of a low-velocity body, which may be residual magma from the ∼767 ka caldera-forming eruption. The polarity of the reflection compared to...

Soils in post‐wildfire environments are often characterized by a low infiltration capacity with a high degree of spatial heterogeneity relative to unburned areas. Debris flows are frequently initiated by run‐off in recently burned steeplands, making it critical to develop and test methods for incorporating spatial variability in infiltration capacity into hydrologic models. We use Monte...

This article describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2018 one‐year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity‐based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts. Rates of earthquakes across the United States...

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing near‐real‐time global earthquake‐triggered‐landslide products to augment the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The 14 November 2016 MwMw 7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake provided a test case for evaluating the performance and near‐real‐time response applicability of three published global...

The November 14, 2016, Kaikoura, New Zealand, earthquake (moment magnitude [Mw] 7.8) triggered more than 10,000 landslides over an area of about 12,000 square kilometers in the northeastern part of the South Island of New Zealand. In collaboration with GNS Science (the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Science Limited), we conducted ground and helicopter reconnaissance of the affected...

Geomagnetic field data obtained through the INTERMAGNET program are convolved with with magnetotelluric surface impedance from four EarthScope USArray sites to estimate the geoelectric variations throughout the duration of a magnetic storm. A duration of time from June 22, 2016, to June 25, 2016, is considered which encompasses a magnetic storm of moderate size recorded at the Brandon...

For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., MM 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; MM 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; MM 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving...

Precipitation thresholds are used in many areas to provide early warning of precipitation-induced landslides and debris flows, and the software distribution THRESH is designed for automated tracking of precipitation, including precipitation forecasts, relative to thresholds for landslide occurrence. This software is also useful for analyzing multiyear precipitation records to compare...

The transition of a colluvial hollow to a fluvial channel with discrete steps was observed after two landscape-scale disturbances. The first disturbance, a high-severity wildfire, changed the catchment hydrology to favor overland flow, which incised a colluvial hollow, creating a channel in the same location. This incised channel became armored with cobbles and boulders following...