The National Land Change Assessment (NLCA) is a research effort that examines the causes, trends, and implications of United States land change. The project takes a comprehensive approach towards understanding land change by systematically examining land conversion and management across a full range of land use and land cover types and climate and ecological settings. Land change is a key driver of environmental change and has important implications related to climate variability and change, biodiversity, natural resources, and ecosystem services.
Historical and recent land transformations are examined using an innovative multi-scale ecoregion framework . The approach employs a variety of spatial analysis approaches to provide an understanding of the geographically- and temporally-variable processes of land change, focusing on the interactions between humans and their environment. A goal of the project is to provide a scientific basis for land management and policy decisions related to issues of sustainability and resilience.
Research
Changes to the National Landscape
How are the long-term trends, land change transitions, and historical legacies of land use change affecting social-environmental systems and sustainability? This research examines the spatial-temporal dynamics and implications of US land change within the context of global environmental change.
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
- Land-cover Change in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative, 1973 to 2000
The results show that an estimated 17.7 percent of the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) land cover had a change during the 27-year period. Cyclic forest dynamics—of timber harvest and regrowth—are the most extensive types of land conversion. Agricultural land had an estimated net decline of 3.5 percent as cropland and pasture were urbanized and developed and converted to forest use. Urban and other developed land covers expanded from 2.0 percent of the LCC in 1973 to 3.1 percent in 2000.
Great Plains
- Land Change Variability and Human-Environment Dynamics in the United States Great Plains
- Ecoregional Differences in Late-20th-century Land-use and Land-cover Change in the U.S. Northern Great Plains
Eastern U.S.
- Assessing Landscape Change and Processes of Recurrence, Replacement, and Recovery in the Southeastern Coastal Plains, USA
Replacement processes, whereby a land use or cover is supplanted by a new land use, including urbanization and agricultural expansion, accounted for approximately 15 % of the extent of change. Recurrent processes that contribute to cyclical changes in land cover, including forest harvest/replanting and fire, accounted for 83 %. Most forest cover changes were recurrent, while the extents of recurrent silviculture and forest replacement processes such as urbanization far exceeded forest recovery processes. The total extent of landscape recovery, from prior land use to natural or semi-natural vegetation cover, accounted for less than 3 % of change.
- Land-use Pressure and a Transition to Forest-cover Loss in the Eastern United States
- Land Changes and their Driving Forces in the Southeastern United States
Intensive Land Systems
- Southern Coniferous Forest Belt
- Corn Belt
- Central California Valley
Below are publications associated with this project.
Status and trends of land change in the Great Plains of the United States--1973 to 2000
Assessing landscape change and processes of recurrence, replacement, and recovery in the Southeastern Coastal Plains, USA
Land-cover change in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative, 1973 to 2000
Recent land-use/land-cover change in the Central California Valley
The driving forces of land change in the Northern Piedmont of the United States
Late twentieth century land-cover change in the basin and range ecoregions of the United States
Land change variability and human-environment dynamics in the United States Great Plains
Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the Eastern United States
- Overview
The National Land Change Assessment (NLCA) is a research effort that examines the causes, trends, and implications of United States land change. The project takes a comprehensive approach towards understanding land change by systematically examining land conversion and management across a full range of land use and land cover types and climate and ecological settings. Land change is a key driver of environmental change and has important implications related to climate variability and change, biodiversity, natural resources, and ecosystem services.
Historical and recent land transformations are examined using an innovative multi-scale ecoregion framework . The approach employs a variety of spatial analysis approaches to provide an understanding of the geographically- and temporally-variable processes of land change, focusing on the interactions between humans and their environment. A goal of the project is to provide a scientific basis for land management and policy decisions related to issues of sustainability and resilience.
Research
Changes to the National Landscape
How are the long-term trends, land change transitions, and historical legacies of land use change affecting social-environmental systems and sustainability? This research examines the spatial-temporal dynamics and implications of US land change within the context of global environmental change.
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
- Land-cover Change in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative, 1973 to 2000
The results show that an estimated 17.7 percent of the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) land cover had a change during the 27-year period. Cyclic forest dynamics—of timber harvest and regrowth—are the most extensive types of land conversion. Agricultural land had an estimated net decline of 3.5 percent as cropland and pasture were urbanized and developed and converted to forest use. Urban and other developed land covers expanded from 2.0 percent of the LCC in 1973 to 3.1 percent in 2000.
Great Plains
- Land Change Variability and Human-Environment Dynamics in the United States Great Plains
- Ecoregional Differences in Late-20th-century Land-use and Land-cover Change in the U.S. Northern Great Plains
Eastern U.S.
- Assessing Landscape Change and Processes of Recurrence, Replacement, and Recovery in the Southeastern Coastal Plains, USA
Replacement processes, whereby a land use or cover is supplanted by a new land use, including urbanization and agricultural expansion, accounted for approximately 15 % of the extent of change. Recurrent processes that contribute to cyclical changes in land cover, including forest harvest/replanting and fire, accounted for 83 %. Most forest cover changes were recurrent, while the extents of recurrent silviculture and forest replacement processes such as urbanization far exceeded forest recovery processes. The total extent of landscape recovery, from prior land use to natural or semi-natural vegetation cover, accounted for less than 3 % of change.
- Land-use Pressure and a Transition to Forest-cover Loss in the Eastern United States
- Land Changes and their Driving Forces in the Southeastern United States
Intensive Land Systems
- Southern Coniferous Forest Belt
- Corn Belt
- Central California Valley
- Land-cover Change in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative, 1973 to 2000
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Status and trends of land change in the Great Plains of the United States--1973 to 2000
Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–B is the second in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Great Plains of the United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, C, and D provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the MidwesAssessing landscape change and processes of recurrence, replacement, and recovery in the Southeastern Coastal Plains, USA
The processes of landscape change are complex, exhibiting spatial variability as well as linear, cyclical, and reversible characteristics. To better understand the various processes that cause transformation, a data aggregation, validation, and attribution approach was developed and applied to an analysis of the Southeastern Coastal Plains (SECP). The approach integrates information from availableAuthorsMark A. Drummond, Michael P. Stier, Roger F. Auch, Janis L. Taylor, Glenn E. Griffith, D. J. Hester, Jodi L. Riegle, Christopher E. Soulard, Jamie L. McBethLand-cover change in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative, 1973 to 2000
This report summarizes baseline land-cover change information for four time intervals from between 1973 and 2000 for the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC). The study used sample data from the USGS Land Cover Trends dataset to develop estimates of change for 10 land-cover classes in the LCC. The results show that an estimated 17.7 percent of the LCC land coverAuthorsMark A. Drummond, Michael P. Stier, Alisa W. CoffinRecent land-use/land-cover change in the Central California Valley
Open access to Landsat satellite data has enabled annual analyses of modern land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) for the Central California Valley ecoregion between 2005 and 2010. Our annual LULCC estimates capture landscape-level responses to water policy changes, climate, and economic instability. From 2005 to 2010, agriculture in the region fluctuated along with regulatory-driven changes in wAuthorsChristopher E. Soulard, Tamara S. WilsonThe driving forces of land change in the Northern Piedmont of the United States
Driving forces facilitate or inhibit land-use/land-cover change. Human driving forces include political, economic, cultural, and social attributes that often change across time and space. Remotely sensed imagery provides regional land-change data for the Northern Piedmont, an ecoregion of the United States that continued to urbanize after 1970 through conversion of agricultural and forest land covAuthorsRoger F. Auch, Darrell E. Napton, Steven Kambly, Thomas R. Moreland, Kristi SaylerLate twentieth century land-cover change in the basin and range ecoregions of the United States
As part of the US Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends project, land-use/land-cover change estimates between 1973 and 2000 are presented for the basin and range ecoregions, including Northern, Central, Mojave, and Sonoran. Landsat data were employed to estimate and characterize land-cover change from 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 using a post-classification comparison. Overall, spatial changeAuthorsChristopher E. Soulard, Benjamin M. SleeterLand change variability and human-environment dynamics in the United States Great Plains
Land use and land cover changes have complex linkages to climate variability and change, biophysical resources, and socioeconomic driving forces. To assess these land change dynamics and their causes in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary changes across 16 ecoregions using Landsat satellite data and statistical analysis. Large-area change analysis of agricultural regions is ofteAuthorsMark A. Drummond, Roger F. Auch, Krista A. Karstensen, Kristi Sayler, Janis L. Taylor, Thomas R. LovelandLand-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the Eastern United States
Contemporary land-use pressures have a significant impact on the extent and condition of forests in the eastern United States, causing a regional-scale decline in forest cover. Earlier in the 20th century, land cover was on a trajectory of forest expansion that followed agricultural abandonment. However, the potential for forest regeneration has slowed, and the extent of regional forest cover hasAuthorsMark A. Drummond, Thomas R. Loveland