When prioritizing natural resource management activities, managers need to understand how plant and animal species differ in terms of their vulnerability to variation in environmental conditions caused by climate change. Species vulnerability to climate change is controlled by (1) exposure to changing environmental conditions, (2) sensitivity to direct and indirect effects of those changing environmental conditions, and (3) adaptive capacity, or the ability of a species to accommodate or adapt to changing environmental conditions.
Elements that contribute to adaptive capacity include dispersal and colonization, phenotypic and behavioral flexibility, and evolutionary capacity. For example, in response to environmental change, species with greater adaptive capacity can move to or colonize more favorable habitats, can change their behavior or the timing of their life-cycle events, or can evolve over time tend to exhibit higher adaptive capacity. These coping mechanisms vary among species, so understanding and considering adaptive capacity can help managers determine which species within an ecosystem are most likely to be vulnerable to – and impacted by – climate change. This will improve the value of vulnerability assessments, help resource managers prioritize the conservation of species and habitats, and improve the efficacy of natural resource management activities designed to enhance adaptation to climate change.
This multi-year collaboration among partners including USGS, USFWS, NPS, the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife and the National Research Council will (1) identify and categorize traits and behaviors of organisms that contribute to adaptive capacity, (2) summarize the taxonomic, climatic, biogeographic, and/or disturbance context that affects the expression of adaptive capacity, (3) synthesize our understanding of how adaptive capacity has controlled the response of species already exposed to climate change, (4) highlight how an understanding of adaptive capacity can be used for natural resource management and conservation activities, (5) identify climate-adaptation management actions that may facilitate or increase adaptive capacity, (6) outline crucial information and research needs related to understanding adaptive capacity, (7) establish the research agenda needed to better understand adaptive capacity. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop a framework that natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners can use to assess the likely adaptive capacity of species, to help improve effectiveness of conservation planning and resource management in a changing climate.
Adaptive Capacity Project Publications
Adaptive Capacity Project Presentations
Project Activities and Schedule:
Feb – July 2017: Draft list of research needs; begin literature review
Aug 2017 – Jan 2018: Host first workshop and provide feedback; continue literature review
Feb – July 2018: Draft framework; begin publication submissions
Aug 2018 – Jan 2019: Host second workshop and provide feedback, Review/revise framework, define tests/case studies
Feb – July 2019: Complete AC Framework v1, implement tests and make adjustments
Aug 2019 – Jan 2020: Documentation of framework and additional applications, development of “tool”; development of training materials and guidance documents; finalize submissions of publications
Partners:
Nancy Green, Climate Change Scientist, US Fish & Wildlife Service, Falls Church, VA
Tel: (703) 358-2151, nancy_green@fws.gov
John Gross, Ecologist, NPS Climate Change Response Program, Ft. Collins, CO
Tel: (970) 267-2111, john_gross@nps.gov
Claudia Mengelt, Science Coordinator, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Sacramento, CA
Tel: (916) 278-9415, claudia_mengelt@fws.gov
Gregor Schuurman, Ecologist, NPS, Ft. Collins, CO
Tel: (970) 267-7211, gregor_schuurman@nps.gov
Laura Thompson, Research Biologist, USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, Reston, VA
Tel: (703) 648-4083, lthompson@usgs.gov
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Hoary Marmot Abundance in North Cascades National Park 2007-2008 and 2016-2017
Below are publications associated with this project.
Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate change
An integrated framework for ecological drought across riverscapes of North America
Ecological consequences of anomalies in atmospheric moisture and snowpack
Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change
Pika (Ochotona princeps) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region
Improving conservation outcomes with a new paradigm for understanding species’ fundamental and realized adaptive capacity
Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change
- Overview
When prioritizing natural resource management activities, managers need to understand how plant and animal species differ in terms of their vulnerability to variation in environmental conditions caused by climate change. Species vulnerability to climate change is controlled by (1) exposure to changing environmental conditions, (2) sensitivity to direct and indirect effects of those changing environmental conditions, and (3) adaptive capacity, or the ability of a species to accommodate or adapt to changing environmental conditions.
(Public domain.) Elements that contribute to adaptive capacity include dispersal and colonization, phenotypic and behavioral flexibility, and evolutionary capacity. For example, in response to environmental change, species with greater adaptive capacity can move to or colonize more favorable habitats, can change their behavior or the timing of their life-cycle events, or can evolve over time tend to exhibit higher adaptive capacity. These coping mechanisms vary among species, so understanding and considering adaptive capacity can help managers determine which species within an ecosystem are most likely to be vulnerable to – and impacted by – climate change. This will improve the value of vulnerability assessments, help resource managers prioritize the conservation of species and habitats, and improve the efficacy of natural resource management activities designed to enhance adaptation to climate change.
This multi-year collaboration among partners including USGS, USFWS, NPS, the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife and the National Research Council will (1) identify and categorize traits and behaviors of organisms that contribute to adaptive capacity, (2) summarize the taxonomic, climatic, biogeographic, and/or disturbance context that affects the expression of adaptive capacity, (3) synthesize our understanding of how adaptive capacity has controlled the response of species already exposed to climate change, (4) highlight how an understanding of adaptive capacity can be used for natural resource management and conservation activities, (5) identify climate-adaptation management actions that may facilitate or increase adaptive capacity, (6) outline crucial information and research needs related to understanding adaptive capacity, (7) establish the research agenda needed to better understand adaptive capacity. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop a framework that natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners can use to assess the likely adaptive capacity of species, to help improve effectiveness of conservation planning and resource management in a changing climate.
Adaptive Capacity Project Publications
Adaptive Capacity Project Presentations
Project Activities and Schedule:
Feb – July 2017: Draft list of research needs; begin literature review
Aug 2017 – Jan 2018: Host first workshop and provide feedback; continue literature review
Feb – July 2018: Draft framework; begin publication submissions
Aug 2018 – Jan 2019: Host second workshop and provide feedback, Review/revise framework, define tests/case studies
Feb – July 2019: Complete AC Framework v1, implement tests and make adjustments
Aug 2019 – Jan 2020: Documentation of framework and additional applications, development of “tool”; development of training materials and guidance documents; finalize submissions of publications
Partners:
Nancy Green, Climate Change Scientist, US Fish & Wildlife Service, Falls Church, VA
Tel: (703) 358-2151, nancy_green@fws.govJohn Gross, Ecologist, NPS Climate Change Response Program, Ft. Collins, CO
Tel: (970) 267-2111, john_gross@nps.govClaudia Mengelt, Science Coordinator, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Sacramento, CA
Tel: (916) 278-9415, claudia_mengelt@fws.govGregor Schuurman, Ecologist, NPS, Ft. Collins, CO
Tel: (970) 267-7211, gregor_schuurman@nps.govLaura Thompson, Research Biologist, USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, Reston, VA
Tel: (703) 648-4083, lthompson@usgs.gov
- Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Hoary Marmot Abundance in North Cascades National Park 2007-2008 and 2016-2017
USGS and NPS biologists used distance sampling to estimate abundance of hoary marmots (Marmota caligata) in North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA during 2007-2008 and 2016-2017. Biologists resurveyed hoary marmots in 2016 and 2017 at 78 point-count stations across 19 sites surveyed by NPS in 2007-2008. Data include marmot detection distances and survey conditions used to estimate abundance - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate change
Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate‐adaptation planning and climate‐smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC). AC is a species’ ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most inconsistently applied of these three factors. WeAuthorsLindsey L. Thurman, Bruce Stein, Erik A. Beever, Wendy Foden, Sonya Geange, Nancy Green, John E. Gross, David J Lawrence, Olivia E. LeDee, Julian D. Olden, Laura Thompson, Bruce YoungAn integrated framework for ecological drought across riverscapes of North America
Climate change is increasing the severity and extent of extreme droughts events, posing a critical threat to freshwater ecosystems, particularly with increasing human demands for diminishing water supplies. Despite the importance of drought as a significant driver of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, current understanding of drought consequences for freshwater biodiversity is very limited. WAuthorsRyan Kovach, Jason B. Dunham, Robert Al-Chokhachy, Craig Snyder, Erik A. Beever, Gregory T. Pederson, Abigail Lynch, Nathaniel P. Hitt, Christopher P. Konrad, Kristin Jaeger, Alan H. Rea, Adam J. Sepulveda, Patrick M. Lambert, Jason M. Stoker, J. Joseph Giersch, Clint C. MuhlfeldEcological consequences of anomalies in atmospheric moisture and snowpack
Although increased frequency of extreme‐weather events is one of the most secure predictions associated with contemporary climate change, effects of such events on distribution and abundance of climate‐sensitive species remain poorly understood. Montane ecosystems may be especially sensitive to extreme weather because of complex abiotic and biotic interactions that propagate from climate‐driven reAuthorsAaron N. Johnston, Jason E. Bruggeman, Roger Christophersen, Aidan Beers, Erik A. Beever, Jason I. RansomBehavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change
Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate changAuthorsErik A. Beever, L. Embere Hall, Johanna Varner, Anne E. Loosen, Jason B. Dunham, Megan K. Gahl, Felisa A. Smith, Joshua J. LawlerPika (Ochotona princeps) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region
Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) at > 910 locations in 3 geographicAuthorsErik A. Beever, John D. Perrine, Tom Rickman, Mary Flores, John P. Clark, Cassie Waters, Shana S. Weber, Braden Yardley, David P. Thoma, Tara L. Chesley-Preston, Kenneth E. Goehring, Michael Magnuson, Nancy Nordensten, Melissa Nelson, Gail H. CollinsImproving conservation outcomes with a new paradigm for understanding species’ fundamental and realized adaptive capacity
Worldwide, many species are responding to ongoing climate change with shifts in distribution, abundance, phenology, or behavior. Consequently, natural-resource managers face increasingly urgent conservation questions related to biodiversity loss, expansion of invasive species, and deteriorating ecosystem services. We argue that our ability to address these questions is hampered by the lack of explAuthorsErik A. Beever, John O’Leary, Claudia Mengelt, Jordan M. West, Susan Julius, Nancy Green, Dawn Magness, Laura E. Petes, Bruce A. Stein, Adrienne B Nicotra, Jessica J Hellmann, Amanda L Robertson, Michelle D. Staudinger, Andrew A. Rosenberg, Eleanora Babij, Jean Brennan, Gregor W. Schuurman, Gretchen E HofmannAssessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change
Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying itsAuthorsAdrienne Nicotra, Erik A. Beever, Amanda Robertson, Gretchen Hofmann, John O’Leary