Probabilistic models are used to predict future beach changes at Fire Island. These models, referred to as Bayesian networks, use statistics to estimate probabilities of future beach configurations based on existing observations. Bayesian networks are easily updated with new data or observations, making this approach ideal for use in coastal systems that experience rapid and frequent changes.
Introduction
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Fire Island is a 50-km long barrier island along the south shore of Long Island, New York. The island is comprised of seventeen year-round communities; federal, state, and county parks; and supports distinct ecosystems alongside areas of economic and cultural value. In addition to providing resources to its residents, the barrier island also protects the heavily-populated mainland from storm waves...
Back-barrier and Estuarine - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Regional-scale modeling forecasts how atmospheric forcing and oceanographic circulation influence estuarine circulation and water levels, sediment transport, and wetland change.
Oceanside Beaches and Dunes - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Oceanfront research at Fire Island, New York, is primarily focused on understanding the long- and short-term behavior of the ocean-facing terrestrial barrier island system, including human influences. The USGS has had ongoing research activities on Fire Island since the late 1990s, providing science to help inform management decisions. Recent efforts include monitoring the response to and recovery...
Open Ocean/Marine - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Geophysical mapping and research have demonstrated that the seabed on the inner continental shelf has a variety of shapes which are linked to long-term evolution of the barrier island. Regional-scale modeling forecasts how atmospheric forcing and oceanographic circulation case sand, gravel, and other materials to be transported by tides, winds, waves, fresh water fluxes, and density variations.
Nearshore - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
The nearshore is the submerged portion of the shoreface between the inner shelf and the shoreline and includes the surf zone, where waves break. Along with beaches and dunes, nearshore morphology and geology adjusts to changes in waves, sediment supply, human alterations, and sea level rise. By measuring nearshore morphologic and geologic variations, we can understand how quickly beaches and dunes...
- Overview
Probabilistic models are used to predict future beach changes at Fire Island. These models, referred to as Bayesian networks, use statistics to estimate probabilities of future beach configurations based on existing observations. Bayesian networks are easily updated with new data or observations, making this approach ideal for use in coastal systems that experience rapid and frequent changes.
Introduction
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.A suite of Bayesian networks was developed to A) generate scenarios of total water level, B) forecast storm impacts and C) predict magnitudes of beach recovery. The Bayesian networks incorporate topographic, bathymetric, and shoreline data available from the historical and post Hurricane Sandy research programs at Fire Island. The Bayesian networks generate predictions in the form of probability of coastal change. - Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Fire Island is a 50-km long barrier island along the south shore of Long Island, New York. The island is comprised of seventeen year-round communities; federal, state, and county parks; and supports distinct ecosystems alongside areas of economic and cultural value. In addition to providing resources to its residents, the barrier island also protects the heavily-populated mainland from storm waves...Back-barrier and Estuarine - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Regional-scale modeling forecasts how atmospheric forcing and oceanographic circulation influence estuarine circulation and water levels, sediment transport, and wetland change.Oceanside Beaches and Dunes - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Oceanfront research at Fire Island, New York, is primarily focused on understanding the long- and short-term behavior of the ocean-facing terrestrial barrier island system, including human influences. The USGS has had ongoing research activities on Fire Island since the late 1990s, providing science to help inform management decisions. Recent efforts include monitoring the response to and recovery...Open Ocean/Marine - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Geophysical mapping and research have demonstrated that the seabed on the inner continental shelf has a variety of shapes which are linked to long-term evolution of the barrier island. Regional-scale modeling forecasts how atmospheric forcing and oceanographic circulation case sand, gravel, and other materials to be transported by tides, winds, waves, fresh water fluxes, and density variations.Nearshore - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
The nearshore is the submerged portion of the shoreface between the inner shelf and the shoreline and includes the surf zone, where waves break. Along with beaches and dunes, nearshore morphology and geology adjusts to changes in waves, sediment supply, human alterations, and sea level rise. By measuring nearshore morphologic and geologic variations, we can understand how quickly beaches and dunes... - Publications