Predicting Future Beach Change - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York

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Probabilistic models are used to predict future beach changes at Fire Island. These models, referred to as Bayesian networks, use statistics to estimate probabilities of future beach configurations based on existing observations. Bayesian networks are easily updated with new data or observations, making this approach ideal for use in coastal systems that experience rapid and frequent changes.

Introduction

 

A suite of Bayesian networks was developed to A) generate scenarios of total water level, B) forecast storm impacts and C) predi

A suite of Bayesian networks was developed to A) generate scenarios of total water level, B) forecast storm impacts and C) predict magnitudes of beach recovery. The Bayesian networks incorporate topographic, bathymetric, and shoreline data available from the historical and post Hurricane Sandy research programs at Fire Island. The Bayesian networks generate predictions in the form of probability of coastal change.