The third SAFRR scenario is initiated by a magnitude 9.0 megathrust earthquake in the eastern Aleutian Islands, an event presenting a hypothetical but plausible distant-tsunami threat to southern and central California. USGS and other federal and state agencies entities developed the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. The scenario describes wave heights, current velocities and inundation for the coast of California. Physical damages and disruption are estimated for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, marinas, near-coast roadways, and coastal property. Population vulnerability is evaluated for the inundation zone. These analyses are further translated into environmental, ecological, and economic implications to inform options for public policy, emergency preparedness, mitigation, and response. The tsunami scenario development began in January 2011 and was published in September, 2013 prior to a series of workshops for the coastal counties.
Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication Contributions
For the SAFRR Tsunami scenario, WGSC coordinated analyses of population vulnerability and economic consequences. Nate Wood let the exposure assessment of population, public places and businesses in the scenario inundation zone (Fig.1). Jeff Peters and Jamie Jones provided GIS analyses support across the scenario analyses (Fig. 2). Anne Wein coordinated input from the ports about economic reilience with economic consequence modeling for the state of California (Table 1). Anne Wein oversaw an evaluation of the SAFRR scenario development process and communication of the scenario to emergency managers.
Below are news stories associated with this project.
California Tsunami Would Have Costly Aftermath
The fearsome aftermath of a tsunami striking California might cost at least $3.4 billion to repair, but neither of the state's nuclear power plants would be damaged, suggests a new analysis that could help officials and the public prepare for a tsunami and reduce risks before any such disasters happen.
Below are FAQ associated with this project.
What are tsunamis?
Tsunamis are ocean waves triggered by:Large earthquakes that occur near or under the oceanVolcanic eruptionsSubmarine landslidesOnshore landslides in which large volumes of debris fall into the water Scientists do not use the term "tidal wave" because these waves are not caused by tides. Tsunami waves are unlike typical ocean waves generated by wind and storms, and most tsunamis do not "break"...
Could a large tsunami happen in the United States?
Large tsunamis have occurred in the United States and will undoubtedly occur again. Significant earthquakes around the Pacific rim have generated tsunamis that struck Hawaii, Alaska, and the U.S. west coast. One of the largest and most devastating tsunamis that Hawaii has experienced was in 1946 from an earthquake along the Aleutian subduction zone. Runup heights reached a maximum of 33 to 55 feet...
- Overview
The third SAFRR scenario is initiated by a magnitude 9.0 megathrust earthquake in the eastern Aleutian Islands, an event presenting a hypothetical but plausible distant-tsunami threat to southern and central California. USGS and other federal and state agencies entities developed the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. The scenario describes wave heights, current velocities and inundation for the coast of California. Physical damages and disruption are estimated for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, marinas, near-coast roadways, and coastal property. Population vulnerability is evaluated for the inundation zone. These analyses are further translated into environmental, ecological, and economic implications to inform options for public policy, emergency preparedness, mitigation, and response. The tsunami scenario development began in January 2011 and was published in September, 2013 prior to a series of workshops for the coastal counties.
Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication Contributions
For the SAFRR Tsunami scenario, WGSC coordinated analyses of population vulnerability and economic consequences. Nate Wood let the exposure assessment of population, public places and businesses in the scenario inundation zone (Fig.1). Jeff Peters and Jamie Jones provided GIS analyses support across the scenario analyses (Fig. 2). Anne Wein coordinated input from the ports about economic reilience with economic consequence modeling for the state of California (Table 1). Anne Wein oversaw an evaluation of the SAFRR scenario development process and communication of the scenario to emergency managers.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Figure 1. Map showing inundation zones for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario and the statewide maximum zone, as well as estimated residential population counts (based on 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data) for island communities in Newport Beach, California. (Credit: Nathan Wood, USGS. Public domain.)
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Figure 2. Map of estimated tsunami-related wave force and inundation extent in the Long Beach, CA. area, as modeled using the Next Wave tsunami scenario development model. (Credit: Jeff Peters, USGS. Public domain.)
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Table of SAFRR Tsunami Scenario estimated economic losses (Credit: Anne Wein, USGS. Public domain.) - Publications
- News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
California Tsunami Would Have Costly Aftermath
The fearsome aftermath of a tsunami striking California might cost at least $3.4 billion to repair, but neither of the state's nuclear power plants would be damaged, suggests a new analysis that could help officials and the public prepare for a tsunami and reduce risks before any such disasters happen.
- FAQ
Below are FAQ associated with this project.
What are tsunamis?
Tsunamis are ocean waves triggered by:Large earthquakes that occur near or under the oceanVolcanic eruptionsSubmarine landslidesOnshore landslides in which large volumes of debris fall into the water Scientists do not use the term "tidal wave" because these waves are not caused by tides. Tsunami waves are unlike typical ocean waves generated by wind and storms, and most tsunamis do not "break"...
Could a large tsunami happen in the United States?
Large tsunamis have occurred in the United States and will undoubtedly occur again. Significant earthquakes around the Pacific rim have generated tsunamis that struck Hawaii, Alaska, and the U.S. west coast. One of the largest and most devastating tsunamis that Hawaii has experienced was in 1946 from an earthquake along the Aleutian subduction zone. Runup heights reached a maximum of 33 to 55 feet...
- Partners