Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern United States.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern United States. Warmer winter temperatures are expected that will lead to reductions in the intensity of freeze events and mangrove forest range expansion at the expense of salt marshes (i.e., woody plant encroachment into tidal grasslands) in Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida. The objective of this research is to better evaluate the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement as well as advance models to improve our understanding of: (1) the current distribution of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; and (2) the potential for future winter climate change-induced mangrove forest replacement of salt marsh. The research is being conducted across the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast.
Methodologies for Addressing the Issue: This research includes various components: (1) Determining the belowground and ecosystem carbon implications of mangrove replacement of salt marsh?: This component focuses primarily on the belowground and ecosystem carbon implications of mangrove replacement of salt marsh. Plant, soil, and porewater data have been collected across structural gradients in three mangrove-marsh ecotones in Texas, Louisiana, and Florida. (2) Models of the mangrove forest distribution and abundance: Climate and coastal wetland data were used to identify ecological thresholds and develop models to predict future mangrove expansion in the southeastern United States. (3) Mangrove forest resistance and resilience to winter climate extremes: Mangrove forest damage and recovery from winter climate extremes will be quantified and models will be built that identify resiliency hot spots. Data sources include field surveys following extreme freeze events that occurred in 2014, historical estimates of mangrove expansion and contraction, and historical climate data.
Future Steps: For Component 1: Documentation of project results is currently being submitted for publication. For Component 2: Microclimatic gradients are being used to evaluate the identified ecological thresholds. For Component 3: Data are being analyzed and results are being compiled for publication/dissemination.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Climate and plant controls on soil organic matter in coastal wetlands
Linear and nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands
Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century
The physiology of mangrove trees with changing climate
Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change
Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): Equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone
Freshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient
Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: Salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States
- Overview
Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern United States.
Mangrove forest range expansion at the expense of salt marshes The Science Issue and Relevance: Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern United States. Warmer winter temperatures are expected that will lead to reductions in the intensity of freeze events and mangrove forest range expansion at the expense of salt marshes (i.e., woody plant encroachment into tidal grasslands) in Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida. The objective of this research is to better evaluate the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement as well as advance models to improve our understanding of: (1) the current distribution of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; and (2) the potential for future winter climate change-induced mangrove forest replacement of salt marsh. The research is being conducted across the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast.
Methodologies for Addressing the Issue: This research includes various components: (1) Determining the belowground and ecosystem carbon implications of mangrove replacement of salt marsh?: This component focuses primarily on the belowground and ecosystem carbon implications of mangrove replacement of salt marsh. Plant, soil, and porewater data have been collected across structural gradients in three mangrove-marsh ecotones in Texas, Louisiana, and Florida. (2) Models of the mangrove forest distribution and abundance: Climate and coastal wetland data were used to identify ecological thresholds and develop models to predict future mangrove expansion in the southeastern United States. (3) Mangrove forest resistance and resilience to winter climate extremes: Mangrove forest damage and recovery from winter climate extremes will be quantified and models will be built that identify resiliency hot spots. Data sources include field surveys following extreme freeze events that occurred in 2014, historical estimates of mangrove expansion and contraction, and historical climate data.
Exposure: Predicted future mangrove forest presence and abundance (2070-2100) Future Steps: For Component 1: Documentation of project results is currently being submitted for publication. For Component 2: Microclimatic gradients are being used to evaluate the identified ecological thresholds. For Component 3: Data are being analyzed and results are being compiled for publication/dissemination.
The tipping point: where salt marshes are replaced by mangrove forests - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Climate and plant controls on soil organic matter in coastal wetlands
Coastal wetlands are among the most productive and carbon‐rich ecosystems on Earth. Long‐term carbon storage in coastal wetlands occurs primarily belowground as soil organic matter (SOM). In addition to serving as a carbon sink, SOM influences wetland ecosystem structure, function, and stability. To anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change, there is a need to advance understanding ofAuthorsMichael J. Osland, Christopher A. Gabler, James B. Grace, Richard H. Day, Meagan L. McCoy, Jennie L. McLeod, Andrew S. From, Nicholas M. Enwright, Laura C. Feher, Camille L. Stagg, Stephen B. HartleyLinear and nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands
Climate greatly influences the structure and functioning of tidal saline wetland ecosystems. However, there is a need to better quantify the effects of climatic drivers on ecosystem properties, particularly near climate-sensitive ecological transition zones. Here, we used climate- and literature-derived ecological data from tidal saline wetlands to test hypotheses regarding the influence of climatAuthorsLaura C. Feher, Michael J. Osland, Kereen T. Griffith, James B. Grace, Rebecca J. Howard, Camille L. Stagg, Nicholas M. Enwright, Ken W. Krauss, Christopher A. Gabler, Richard H. Day, Kerrylee RogersMacroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century
Coastal wetlands, existing at the interface between land and sea, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Macroclimate (for example, temperature and precipitation regimes) greatly influences coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, research on climate change impacts in coastal wetlands has concentrated primarily on sea-level rise and largely ignored macroclimatic drivers, despitAuthorsChristopher A. Gabler, Michael J. Osland, James B. Grace, Camille L. Stagg, Richard H. Day, Stephen B. Hartley, Nicholas M. Enwright, Andrew From, Meagan L. McCoy, Jennie L. McLeodThe physiology of mangrove trees with changing climate
Mangrove forests grow on saline, periodically flooded soils of the tropical and subtropical coasts. The tree species that comprise the mangrove are halophytes that have suites of traits that confer differing levels of tolerance of salinity, aridity, inundation and extremes of temperature. Here we review how climate change and elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 will influence mangrove forests. ToleAuthorsCatherine E. Lovelock, Ken W. Krauss, Michael J. Osland, Ruth Reef, Marilyn C. BallBeyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change
Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) grAuthorsMichael J. Osland, Nicholas M. Enwright, Richard H. Day, Christopher A. Gabler, Camille L. Stagg, James B. GraceAboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): Equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone
Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical cAuthorsMichael J. Osland, Richard H. Day, Jack C. Larriviere, Andrew S. FromFreshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient
Climate gradient-focused ecological research can provide a foundation for better understanding critical ecological transition points and nonlinear climate-ecological relationships, which is information that can be used to better understand, predict, and manage ecological responses to climate change. In this study, we examined the influence of freshwater availability upon the coverage of foundationAuthorsMichael J. Osland, Nicholas M. Enwright, Camille L. StaggWinter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: Salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States
We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses tAuthorsMichael J. Osland, Richard H. Day, Thomas W. Doyle, Nicholas Enwright