Climate Adaptation Science Centers

Publications

Browse a selection of publications from CASC-funded projects below or use our Project Explorer to explore a more comprehensive list of our science projects, publications, and data.

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Regional CASC Annual Reports

Regional CASC Annual Reports

On an annual basis, each CASC produces a report documenting the activities of the host university and consortium institutions. Click "Learn More" to see past reports.

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CASC Network Annual Reports

CASC Network Annual Reports

The CASC Network develops a comprehensive annual report document each year, highlighting particularly successful and interesting activities from across the network that have occurred over the past year. Click "Learn More" to read past reports. 

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Filter Total Items: 256
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Year Published: 2020

A Bayesian Dirichlet process community occupancy model to estimate community structure and species similarity

Community occupancy models estimate species‐specific parameters while sharing information across species by treating parameters as sampled from a common distribution. When communities consist of discrete groups, shrinkage of estimates towards the community mean can mask differences among groups. Infinite mixture models using a Dirichlet process (...

Sollmann, Rahel; Eaton, Mitchell; Link, William; Mulundo, Paul; Ayebare, Samuel; Prinsloo, Sarah; Plumptre, Andrew J.; Johnson, D.S.

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Year Published: 2020

Visually communicating future climate in a web environment

While there is growing demand for use of climate model projections to understand the potential impacts of future climate on resources, there is a lack of effective visuals that convey the range of possible climates across spatial scales and with uncertainties that potential users need to inform their impact assessments and studies. We use...

Davis, Corey; Aldridge, Heather D; Boyles, Ryan; McNeal, Karen; Mauldin, Lindsay C.; Atkins, Rachel M.

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Year Published: 2020

What are the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in western North America? A systematic map protocol

Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors, and can affect the growth, development, fecundity, dispersal, and demographic trends of populations. Changes in temperature and precipitation, and resulting shifts in plant phenology, winter severity, drought and wildfire conditions, invasive...

Malpeli, Kate; Weiskopf, Sarah R.; Thompson, Laura; Amanda R. Hardy

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Year Published: 2020

Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate change

Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate‐adaptation planning and climate‐smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC). AC is a species’ ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most...

Thurman, Lindsey L.; Stein, Bruce; Beever, Erik A.; Foden, Wendy; Geange, Sonya; Green, Nancy; Gross, John E.; Lawrence, David J; LeDee, Olivia Erin; Olden, Julian D.; Thompson, Laura; Young, Bruce

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Year Published: 2020

High‐resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands

The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the regional spectral model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non‐Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2‐km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Two 20‐...

Bowden, Jared H.; Terando, Adam; Misra, Vasu; Wootten, Adrienne; Bhardwaj, Amit; Boyles, Ryan; Gould, William A.; Collazo, Jaime; Spero, Tanya

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Year Published: 2020

Climate-change refugia in boreal North America: What, where, and for how long?

TThe vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current...

Stralberg, Diana; Arseneault, Dominique; Baltzer, Jennifer; Barber, Quinn; Bayne, Erin; Boulanger, Yan; Brown, Carissa; Cooke, Hilary; Devito, Kevin; Edwards, Jason; Estevo, Cesar; Flynn, Nadele; Frelich, Lee; Hogg, E. H. (T.); Johnston, Mark; Logan, Travis; Matsuoka, Steven M.; Moore, Paul; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Morissette, Julienne; Nelson, Elizabeth; Nenzén, Hedvig; Nielsen, Scott; Parisien, Marc-André; Pedlar, John; Price, David; Schmiegelow, Fiona; Slattery, Stuart; Sonnentag, Oliver; Thompson, Daniel; Whitman, Ellen

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Year Published: 2020

Report on the workshop ‘Next Steps in Developing Nature Futures’

The workshop ‘New Narratives for Nature: operationalizing the IPBES Nature Futures Scenarios’ was organised by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models and hosted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), with support from the research team on “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services through an...

Schoolenberg, Machteld; Okayasu, Sana; Alkemade, Rob; Krijgsman, Amanda; Dutra de Aguiar, Ana Paula; Hashimoto, Shizuka; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, Garry; Armenteras, Dolors; Cheung, William W. L.; Diaw, Mariteuw Chimère; Durán, América Paz; Gasalla, Maria; Halouani, Ghassen; Harrisson, Paula; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia; Kim, HyeJin; Kuiper, Jan J.; Miller, Brian W.; Takahashi, Yasuo; Pichs, Ramón

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Year Published: 2020

Validating climate‐change refugia: Empirical bottom‐up approaches to support management actions

Efforts to conserve biodiversity increasingly focus on identifying climate‐change refugia – areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable species persistence. Identification of refugia typically includes modeling the distribution of a species’ current habitat and then extrapolating that distribution given...

Barrows, Cameron W.; Ramirez, Aaron R.; Sweet, Lynn C.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Millar, Constance I.; Frakes, Neil; Rodgers, Jane; Mahalovich, Mary Frances

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Year Published: 2020

Climate‐change refugia: Biodiversity in the slow lane

Climate‐change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate‐change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

Morelli, Toni Lyn; Barrows, Cameron W.; Ramirez, Aaron R.; Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Ackerly, David D.; Eaves, Tatiana D.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Letcher, Benjamin; Mahalovich, Mary Frances; Meigs, Garrett; Michalak, Julia; Millar, Constance I.; Quinones, Rebecca M.; Stralberg, Diana; Thorne, James H.

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Year Published: 2020

Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burning opportunities in the south-eastern United States

Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (a ‘burn window’) are met. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the south-eastern United States by...

Kupfer, John A; Terando, Adam; Gao, Peng; Teske, Casey; Hiers, J Kevin

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Year Published: 2020

Examining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?

Climate-change-driven shifts in distribution and abundance have been documented in many species. However, in order to better predict species responses, managers are seeking to understand the mechanisms that are driving these changes, including any thresholds that might soon be crossed. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by...

DeLuca, William; Bonnot, Thomas W.; Siren, Alexej P. K.; Horton, Radley M.; Griffin, Curtice R.; Morelli, Toni Lyn

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Year Published: 2020

Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol

Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher...

Rubenstein, Madeleine A.; Weiskopf, Sarah R.; Carter, Shawn; Eaton, Mitchell; Johnson, Ciara; Lynch, Abigail; Miller, Brian W.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Rodriguez, Mari Angel; Terando, Adam; Thompson, Laura