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Can animals predict earthquakes?
The earliest reference we have to unusual animal behavior prior to a significant earthquake is from Greece in 373 BC. Rats, weasels, snakes, and centipedes reportedly left their homes and headed for safety several days before a destructive earthquake. Anecdotal evidence abounds of animals, fish, birds, reptiles, and insects exhibiting strange behavior anywhere from weeks to seconds before an earthquake. However, consistent and reliable behavior prior to seismic events, and a mechanism explaining how it could work, still eludes us. Most, but not all, scientists pursuing this mystery are in China or Japan.
An earthquake forecast was made in China several decades ago, based on small earthquakes and unusual animal activity. Many people chose to sleep outside of their homes and thus were spared when the main earthquake indeed occurred and caused widespread destruction. However, usually no large earthquake follows this type of seismic activity, and, unfortunately, many earthquakes are preceded by no precursory events whatsoever. The next large Chinese event was entirely unheralded and scores of thousands of Chinese died.
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Gomberg, Joan S.; Atwater, Brian F.; Beeler, Nicholas M.; Bodin, Paul; Davis, Earl; Frankel, Arthur; Hayes, Gavin P.; McConnell, Laura; Melbourne, Tim; Oppenheimer, David H.; Parrish, John G.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Rogers, Gary D.; Sherrod, Brian; Vidale, John; Walsh, Timothy J.; Weaver, Craig S.; Whitmore, Paul M.
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U.S. Geological Survey role in earthquake prediction
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New USGS maps identify potential ground-shaking hazards in 2017 from both human-induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S.
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New Audiences, New Products for the National Seismic Hazard Maps
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Throughout California April is recognized as Earthquake Preparedness Month. This Thursday's lecture, "Predictable Earthquakes", will provide an update on the current ability of scientists to predict potentially destructive earthquakes and to separate fact from fiction from this intriguing topic.
PubTalk 1/2018 — ShakeAlert: Path to West Coast EQ Early Warning
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- Alerts could save lives and properties but several challenges remain.
- With millions at risk, why isn't full public alerting happening yet?
Dog trainer with scent-detection dog at Hanalei NWR
Dog trainer stands with scent-detection canine at Hanalei National Wildlife Refuge
Mule deer migration
Insights gained from research on mule deer migration could alert managers to when animal movements are threatened by land-use changes.
PubTalk 5/2015 — Breaking Badly:Forecasting California Earthquakes
by Morgan Page, USGS Research Geophysicist
- Scientists cannot currently predict the precise time, location, and size of future damaging earthquakes.
- Historical records of earthquakes in California date back over 150 years.
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U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Vessel Seen Through Bird Flock
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service vessel Tiglax off of Kasatochi Island, Alaska, as seen through a flock of Crested Auklets.
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Aerial photo of the San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain. By Ikluft - Own work, GFDL, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3106006
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