Publications

Rapid characterization of the earthquake source and of its effects is a growing field of interest. Until recently, it still took several hours to determine the first-order attributes of a great earthquake (e.g. Mw≥ 7.5), even in a well-instrumented region. The main limiting factors were data saturation, the interference of different phases and the time duration and spatial extent of the...

We examine two stochastic models for consistency with observed long-term secular trends in sunspot number and a faint, but semi-persistent, 22-yr signal: (1) a null hypothesis, a simple one-parameter random-walk model of sunspot-number cycle-to-cycle change, and, (2) an alternative hypothesis, a two-parameter random-walk model with an imposed 22-yr alternating amplitude. The observed...

We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization...

We present the results of a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. The Mariana island arc has formed in response to northwestward subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the Philippine Sea plate, and this process controls seismic activity in the region. Historical seismicity, the Mariana megathrust, and two crustal faults on Guam were...

Prediction of the location and timing of rainfall‐induced shallow landslides is desired by organizations responsible for hazard management and warnings. However, hydrologic and mechanical processes in the vadose zone complicate such predictions. Infiltrating rainfall must typically pass through an unsaturated layer before reaching the irregular and usually discontinuous shallow water...

Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in...

This report documents the development of Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Basic Building Taxonomy and it also provides version 1.0 of this Taxonomy for its immediate application within GEM Physical Risk projects. Criteria for development of the GEM Building Taxonomy required that the Taxonomy be relevant to seismic performance of different construction types; be comprehensive yet simple; be

Landslides cause fatalities and property damage throughout the Nation. To reduce the impact from hazardous landslides, the U.S. Geological Survey develops and uses real-time and near-real-time landslide monitoring systems. Monitoring can detect when hillslopes are primed for sliding and can provide early indications of rapid, catastrophic movement. Continuous information from up-to-the...

Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the fact that Evansville is close to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern about the hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a...

The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how...

Understanding the spatial distribution of earthquake-induced landslides from specific earthquakes provides an opportunity to recognize what to expect from future events. The July 16, 2007 Mw 6.6 (MJMA 6.8) Niigata Chuetsu–Oki Japan earthquake triggered hundreds of landslides in the area surrounding the coastal city of Kashiwazaki and provides one such opportunity to evaluate the impacts...

Wind erosion following large wildfires on and around the INL Site is a recurrent threat to human health and safety, DOE operations and trafficability, and ecological and hydrological condition of the INL Site and down-wind landscapes. Causes and consequences of wind erosion are mainly known from warm deserts (e.g., Southwest U.S.), dunefields, and croplands, and some but not all findings...