Paleo Research: Integrating Systems and Models (PRISM5)
PRISM5 addresses how the world, and particularly the US east coast, is affected by change. We study past warm periods from the Pliocene, Middle Miocene and early Eocene because these periods provide a suite of natural experiments in which marine ecosystems responded to rapidly changing temperature, sea-level and atmospheric CO2 for comparison to modern and future projections. We study how both shallow and deep marine environments were affected in terms of biodiversity, ocean productivity, and ecosystem thresholds, leading to a better understanding of near future effects. This research is important because records from past warm periods provide evidence of tipping points, like thresholds of ecosystem turnover and collapse. Paleoenvironmental data also provide the ground-truth needed to improve confidence in global and regional modeling efforts funded by NCAR, NSF(US), NASA, and our international partners. We 1) provide essential context for the scientific understanding needed to inform policy decisions and 2) provide a geological baseline more relevant to the near future, since current extremes are outside observed variablility.
PRISM5 uses paleodata to quantitatively reconstruct changes in sea level, marine temperature, salinity, pH, and biodiversity from past intervals that were similar to today in some way. We not only develop and interpret paleoecological data, but we also provide model verification data.
Paleoecological data
Our project members are stewards of a massive and expanding collection of unique global marine micropaleoecological data generated by USGS scientists over the last 50 years. We also collect new data. In addition to studying outcrop exposures that show layered marine deposits from past high sea level events, we collect new sediment cores. For example, we co-lead an International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP) project that will collect ten new cores from Virginia to New Jersey that record what the ocean was like during past warm intervals. These records are invaluable in understanding how shallow water ecosystems respond to rapidly warming temperatures, changes in salinity and surface water productivity, and ocean acidification. We analyze these data to explore how ecosystems near coastal population centers might be impacted now by similar changes in water temperature and chemistry.
Model verification data
Models have advanced remarkably such that they now simulate more nuanced understanding of systems, and we provide the ground truth for the marine environment. Through our continued work with the IPCC, our boundary condition data sets and verification data improve model performance, adding confidence to model simulations of the future. Our boundary condition data sets combine temperature, paleogeography, land cover, sea- and land-ice distribution around the globe. They are the product of a multidisciplinary international effort and are used to test a multitude of hypotheses. We focus on studies that address concerns about regional and economic effects. Twenty-one modeling groups currently use our data as part of the international Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP).
Piacenzian (Pliocene) foraminiferal faunal census data from Sites DSDP 594, ODP 642, ODP 846, ODP 882, ODP 982, ODP 1073, ODP 1088, and ODP 1146
Zanclean Age Benthic Foraminiferal Census and Sedimentologic Data from the Yorktown Formation, Spring Grove, Va
Plankton biodiversity estimates from the Pliocene of North Atlantic DSDP Sites 552 and 606
Alkenone temperature estimates from the Miocene and Pliocene of SE Virginia
Community-sourced lower Zanclean [early Pliocene] sea surface temperature (SST) data
Pliocene Planktic Foraminiferal Census Data from the Northeast Indian Ocean and Southeast Virginia
Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) Data Distribution
Paleocene-Eocene foraminifer census data from South Dover Bridge and Mattawoman Creek-Billingsley Road coreholes
Alkenone temperature estimates from the Miocene (Burdigalian, Langhian, Tortonian) and Pliocene (Zanclean) Atlantic Coastal Plain sediments
Planktonic foraminifer census data from type section of Yorktown Formation at Rushmere, Virginia, USA
PRISM3 Pliocene Global Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction
Planktic foraminifer census data for ODP Sites 907, 909 and 911
Formation of vertical columnar seismic structures and seafloor depressions by groundwater discharge in the drowned Miami Terrace platform and overlying deep-water carbonates, southeastern Florida
Isotopic evidence against North Pacific Deep Water formation during late Pliocene warmth
Modeling the mid-Piacenzian warm climate using the water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM1.2-ITPCAS)
Decomposition of physical processes controlling EASM precipitation changes during the mid-Piacenzian: New insights into data–model integration
Benthic foraminiferal community changes across the Miocene climatic optimum Identified by SHEBI analysis (SHE analysis for biozone identification), Calvert Cliffs, Maryland, USA
What the cliffs near America’s earliest settlements tell us about climate change
Revisiting the physical processes controlling the tropical atmospheric circulation changes during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period
Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science plan and experimental design
Early Pliocene (Zanclean) stratigraphic framework for PRISM5/PlioMIP3 time slices
The relative stability of planktic foraminifer thermal preferences over the past 3 million years
A global planktic foraminifer census data set for the Pliocene ocean
PRISM5 addresses how the world, and particularly the US east coast, is affected by change. We study past warm periods from the Pliocene, Middle Miocene and early Eocene because these periods provide a suite of natural experiments in which marine ecosystems responded to rapidly changing temperature, sea-level and atmospheric CO2 for comparison to modern and future projections. We study how both shallow and deep marine environments were affected in terms of biodiversity, ocean productivity, and ecosystem thresholds, leading to a better understanding of near future effects. This research is important because records from past warm periods provide evidence of tipping points, like thresholds of ecosystem turnover and collapse. Paleoenvironmental data also provide the ground-truth needed to improve confidence in global and regional modeling efforts funded by NCAR, NSF(US), NASA, and our international partners. We 1) provide essential context for the scientific understanding needed to inform policy decisions and 2) provide a geological baseline more relevant to the near future, since current extremes are outside observed variablility.
PRISM5 uses paleodata to quantitatively reconstruct changes in sea level, marine temperature, salinity, pH, and biodiversity from past intervals that were similar to today in some way. We not only develop and interpret paleoecological data, but we also provide model verification data.
Paleoecological data
Our project members are stewards of a massive and expanding collection of unique global marine micropaleoecological data generated by USGS scientists over the last 50 years. We also collect new data. In addition to studying outcrop exposures that show layered marine deposits from past high sea level events, we collect new sediment cores. For example, we co-lead an International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP) project that will collect ten new cores from Virginia to New Jersey that record what the ocean was like during past warm intervals. These records are invaluable in understanding how shallow water ecosystems respond to rapidly warming temperatures, changes in salinity and surface water productivity, and ocean acidification. We analyze these data to explore how ecosystems near coastal population centers might be impacted now by similar changes in water temperature and chemistry.
Model verification data
Models have advanced remarkably such that they now simulate more nuanced understanding of systems, and we provide the ground truth for the marine environment. Through our continued work with the IPCC, our boundary condition data sets and verification data improve model performance, adding confidence to model simulations of the future. Our boundary condition data sets combine temperature, paleogeography, land cover, sea- and land-ice distribution around the globe. They are the product of a multidisciplinary international effort and are used to test a multitude of hypotheses. We focus on studies that address concerns about regional and economic effects. Twenty-one modeling groups currently use our data as part of the international Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP).