Publications

The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke’s approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke’s approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments coupled with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The

Aseismic or slow slip events have been observed in many subduction zones, but whether they affect the occurrence of earthquakes or result from stress changes caused by nearby events is unclear. In an area lacking direct geodetic observations, inferences can be made from seismological studies of co-seismic slip, associated stress changes and the spatiotemporal nature of aftershocks. These

The Chilean tsunami of 22 May 1960 reamed out a breach and built up a fan as it flowed across a sparsely inhabited beach-ridge plain near Maullín, midway along the length of the tsunami source. Eyewitnesses to the flooding, interviewed mainly in 1988 and 1989, identified levels that the tsunami had reached on high ground, trees, and build- ings. The maximum levels fell, from about 10 m...

We estimate the arms‐stress drop, Graphic, (Hanks, 1979) using acceleration time records of 59 earthquakes from two earthquake sequences in eastern Honshu, Japan. These acceleration‐based static stress drops compare well to stress drops calculated for the same events by Baltay et al. (2011) using an empirical Green’s function (eGf) approach. This agreement supports the assumption that...

1] The Kanto seismic corridor surrounding Tokyo has hosted four to five M ≥ 7 earthquakes in the past 400 years. Immediately after the Tohoku earthquake, the seismicity rate in the corridor jumped 10-fold, while the rate of normal focal mechanisms dropped in half. The seismicity rate decayed for 6–12 months, after which it steadied at three times the pre-Tohoku rate. The seismicity rate...

Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their...

We present a quantitative procedure for constraining probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results at a given site, based on the existence of fragile geologic structures at that site. We illustrate this procedure by analyzing precarious rocks and undamaged lithophysae at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The key metric is the probability that the feature would have survived to the present day...

This study focuses on the production of convergent margin calc-alkaline andesites by crystallization–differentiation of basaltic magmas in the lower to middle crust. Previous experimental studies show that dry, reduced, subalkaline basalts differentiate to tholeiitic (high Fe/Mg) daughter liquids, but the influences of H2O and oxidation on differentiation are less well established...

A recent study by Schmidt et al. (2011) suggests that Thera Macula, one of the “chaos regions” on Europa, may be actively forming over a large liquid water lens. Such a process could conceivably produce a thermal anomaly detectable by a future Europa orbiter or flyby mission, allowing for a direct verification of this finding. Here, we present a set of models that quantitatively assess...

The complex tectonics surrounding the Philippine Islands are dominated by the interactions of the Pacific, Sunda, and Eurasia plates with the Philippine Sea plate (PSP). The latter is unique because it is almost exclusively surrounded by zones of plate convergence. At its eastern and southeastern edges, the Pacific plate is subducted beneath the PSP at the Izu-Bonin, Mariana, and Yap...

Geophysical measurements are often acquired at scattered locations in space. Therefore, interpolating or fitting the sparsely sampled data as a uniform function of space (a procedure commonly known as gridding) is a ubiquitous problem in geophysics. Most gridding methods require a model of spatial correlation for data. This spatial correlation model can often be inferred from some sort...

This report summarizes the current understanding of floodplain processes and landforms for the Willamette River and its major tributaries. The area of focus encompasses the main stem Willamette River above Newberg and the portions of the Coast Fork Willamette, Middle Fork Willamette, McKenzie, and North, South and main stem Santiam Rivers downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams...