Publications

This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California...

The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for this event, scientists of the U.S...

Volcanoes have been erupting in the Cascade Range for over 500,000 years. During the past 4,000 years eruptions have occurred at an average rate of about 2 per century. This chart shows 13 volcanoes on a map of Washington, Oregon, and northern California and time lines for each showing the ages of their eruptions.

Most volcano hazards are associated with eruptions. However, some hazards, such as lahars and debris avalanches, can occur even when a volcano is not erupting.

Time series of position changes estimated from data from 236 continuously recording GPS receivers operating in Southern California and Southern Nevada are evaluated for noise models that characterize their temporal correlations. The lengths of the time series range between 3.5 and 10 years. After adjusting these data for postseismic deformation, offsets, and annual periodicities, I find...

The Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) presented in this report estimates the number and economic loss (cost) of landslides during a specified future time in individual areas, and then calculates the sum of those estimates. The analytic probabilistic methodology is based upon conditional probability theory and laws of expectation and variance. The...

Sampling and analysis of eruptive products at Mount St. Helens is an integral part of volcano monitoring efforts conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey?s Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO). The objective of our eruption sampling program is to enable petrological assessments of pre-eruptive magmatic conditions, critical for ascertaining mechanisms for eruption triggering and forecasting...

This open-file report presents a catalog of information about 135 ash samples along with geochemical analyses of bulk ash, glass and individual mineral grains from tephra deposited as a result of volcanic activity at Mount St. Helens, Washington, from October 1, 2004 until August 15, 2005. This data, in conjunction with that in a companion report on 2004-2007 Mount St. Helens dome...

Power-law equations that are physically motivated and statistically tested and calibrated provide a basis for forecasting areas likely to be inundated by debris flows, rock avalanches, and lahars with diverse volumes. The equations A=α1V2/3 and B=α2V2/3 are based on the postulate that the maximum valley cross-sectional area (A) and total valley planimetric area (B) likely to be inundated...

The many volcanoes of the remote and mostly uninhabited Kurile Island arc (fig. 1; table 1) pose a serious hazard for air traffic in the North Pacific. Ash clouds from Kurile eruptions can impact some of the busiest air travel routes in the world and drift quickly into airspace managed by three countries: Russia, Japan, and the United States. Prevailing westerly winds throughout the...

In this paper we achieve three goals: (1) We demonstrate that crack tips governed by friction laws, including slip weakening, rate- and state-dependent laws, and thermal pressurization of pore fluids, propagating at supershear speed have slip velocity functions with reduced high-frequency content compared to crack tips traveling at subshear speeds. This is demonstrated using a fully...

The southern Whidbey Island fault zone (SWIF), as previously mapped using borehole data, potential field anomalies, and marine seismic reflection surveys, consists of three subparallel, northwest trending strands extending ∼100 km from near Vancouver Island to the northern Puget Lowland. East of Puget Sound, the SWIF makes landfall between the cities of Seattle and Everett but is...