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Drought

Droughts of the future will be hotter, longer-lasting, and larger than droughts of the past. CASC-supported scientists are working to understand how changing drought conditions will impact important natural resources. Learn more about this work below.

Filter Total Items: 210

Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis

Drought is a common consequence of climate variability in the south-central U.S., but they are expected to occur more often and become more intense with climate change. Natural resource managers can improve their planning efforts with advance warnings of impending drought. Using input from resource managers in the Chickasaw Nation, this research team previously created models that...
Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis

Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis

Drought is a common consequence of climate variability in the south-central U.S., but they are expected to occur more often and become more intense with climate change. Natural resource managers can improve their planning efforts with advance warnings of impending drought. Using input from resource managers in the Chickasaw Nation, this research team previously created models that forecast
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Integrating Streamflow and Temperature to Identify Streams with Coldwater Refugia in the Northeast

The amount of water flowing through a stream is an important driver of aquatic habitat, but scientists don’t often measure streamflow in the small stream networks that feed larger rivers. Monitoring smaller streams is especially important as climate change is causing them to (a) flood more often and more intensely, and (b) lose habitat as drought events and water temperatures increase. A...
Integrating Streamflow and Temperature to Identify Streams with Coldwater Refugia in the Northeast

Integrating Streamflow and Temperature to Identify Streams with Coldwater Refugia in the Northeast

The amount of water flowing through a stream is an important driver of aquatic habitat, but scientists don’t often measure streamflow in the small stream networks that feed larger rivers. Monitoring smaller streams is especially important as climate change is causing them to (a) flood more often and more intensely, and (b) lose habitat as drought events and water temperatures increase. A better
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Intermittent Stream Risk Assessment: Mapping Patterns of Stream Drying and Identifying Vulnerabilities of Stream Fish and Crayfish Communities to Drying

Small creeks and streams often dry out during the summer but still support many insects, fish, crayfish, and plants. Though intermittent streams are the most common type of flowing water across the globe, not much is known about which, how, why, or when streams dry or about how patterns of drying affect species in these habitats. More information about patterns of stream drying can help...
Intermittent Stream Risk Assessment: Mapping Patterns of Stream Drying and Identifying Vulnerabilities of Stream Fish and Crayfish Communities to Drying

Intermittent Stream Risk Assessment: Mapping Patterns of Stream Drying and Identifying Vulnerabilities of Stream Fish and Crayfish Communities to Drying

Small creeks and streams often dry out during the summer but still support many insects, fish, crayfish, and plants. Though intermittent streams are the most common type of flowing water across the globe, not much is known about which, how, why, or when streams dry or about how patterns of drying affect species in these habitats. More information about patterns of stream drying can help inform the
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Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2)

Recently intensifying drought conditions have caused increased stress to non-native tamarisk vegetation across riparian areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter Tribe) and the Upper Gila River watershed in Arizona and New Mexico. This also increases wildfire risk in the area, making the removal of tamarisk vegetation a primary restoration and climate adaptation objective for the...
Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2)

Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2)

Recently intensifying drought conditions have caused increased stress to non-native tamarisk vegetation across riparian areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter Tribe) and the Upper Gila River watershed in Arizona and New Mexico. This also increases wildfire risk in the area, making the removal of tamarisk vegetation a primary restoration and climate adaptation objective for the Tribe.
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Modeling Large Fires in Response to Potential Tipping Points in Fuel Dryness

Wildfire burn areas are increasing in the western U.S., a change that has been linked to increased fuel aridity caused by climate change. Recognizing that there will likely be even more large fires in the future presents an opportunity to prepare and adapt to the expected climatic changes. This project addresses three key science questions: 1) Is there a specific level (threshold) of...
Modeling Large Fires in Response to Potential Tipping Points in Fuel Dryness

Modeling Large Fires in Response to Potential Tipping Points in Fuel Dryness

Wildfire burn areas are increasing in the western U.S., a change that has been linked to increased fuel aridity caused by climate change. Recognizing that there will likely be even more large fires in the future presents an opportunity to prepare and adapt to the expected climatic changes. This project addresses three key science questions: 1) Is there a specific level (threshold) of fuel
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Post-fire Vegetation Transitions in Burned and Reburned Forests in the Western Cascades

Climatic warming has contributed to recent increases in severe wildfires across the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Following severe wildfire, a burned forest has an increased likelihood of burning again within several decades, which can greatly alter vegetation recovery. These changes are of increasing concern to forest managers, conservationists, researchers, the public, and culture bearers...
Post-fire Vegetation Transitions in Burned and Reburned Forests in the Western Cascades

Post-fire Vegetation Transitions in Burned and Reburned Forests in the Western Cascades

Climatic warming has contributed to recent increases in severe wildfires across the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Following severe wildfire, a burned forest has an increased likelihood of burning again within several decades, which can greatly alter vegetation recovery. These changes are of increasing concern to forest managers, conservationists, researchers, the public, and culture bearers. However
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Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast

The California Coast has hundreds of tree groves where dual management practices aim to reduce the risk of fire and to conserve habitat for overwintering monarch butterflies. As the climate changes, longer high-intensity droughts can increase mortality and/or limb loss in grove trees which causes an accumulation of fire-prone fuels. Moreover, these trees provide the critical habitat for
Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast

Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast

The California Coast has hundreds of tree groves where dual management practices aim to reduce the risk of fire and to conserve habitat for overwintering monarch butterflies. As the climate changes, longer high-intensity droughts can increase mortality and/or limb loss in grove trees which causes an accumulation of fire-prone fuels. Moreover, these trees provide the critical habitat for
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Synthesizing the Responses and Vulnerabilities of Freshwater Invertebrates to Droughts and Heavy Precipitation in the Midwest

The Midwest United States is facing wetter winters and springs and more variable precipitation in the summer and fall. Heavy floods and prolonged droughts are costly to agriculture, housing, transportation infrastructure, and recreational opportunities across the region. These extremes also stress the health of freshwater ecosystems that are important to the regional economy and quality...
Synthesizing the Responses and Vulnerabilities of Freshwater Invertebrates to Droughts and Heavy Precipitation in the Midwest

Synthesizing the Responses and Vulnerabilities of Freshwater Invertebrates to Droughts and Heavy Precipitation in the Midwest

The Midwest United States is facing wetter winters and springs and more variable precipitation in the summer and fall. Heavy floods and prolonged droughts are costly to agriculture, housing, transportation infrastructure, and recreational opportunities across the region. These extremes also stress the health of freshwater ecosystems that are important to the regional economy and quality of life
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The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function

Wildfire, drought, and insects are reshaping forests in the Western United States in a manner that is being exacerbated by warming temperatures. Disturbance events such as these can significantly alter the amount of land that is covered by forest in an area or region. Consequently, changes in forest cover from disturbance can impact water runoff conditions leading to dangerous flooding...
The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function

The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function

Wildfire, drought, and insects are reshaping forests in the Western United States in a manner that is being exacerbated by warming temperatures. Disturbance events such as these can significantly alter the amount of land that is covered by forest in an area or region. Consequently, changes in forest cover from disturbance can impact water runoff conditions leading to dangerous flooding, erosion
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Understanding Post-fire Transformations in Inland Northwest Forests and Shrublands

Vegetation transformations after wildfires are a growing issue for forest and shrubland managers in the Inland Pacific Northwest. Severe fires combined with persistent drought and invasive species can slow or prevent the recovery of burned forests and shrublands to their pre-fire states, resulting in ecological, economic, and cultural losses. Forests may be converted to shrub fields or...
Understanding Post-fire Transformations in Inland Northwest Forests and Shrublands

Understanding Post-fire Transformations in Inland Northwest Forests and Shrublands

Vegetation transformations after wildfires are a growing issue for forest and shrubland managers in the Inland Pacific Northwest. Severe fires combined with persistent drought and invasive species can slow or prevent the recovery of burned forests and shrublands to their pre-fire states, resulting in ecological, economic, and cultural losses. Forests may be converted to shrub fields or grasslands
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Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate

Steep, mountainous watersheds, dramatic climate gradients, and tight links between the land and sea are common features of both the Pacific Islands and Southeast Alaska. In these "ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean" ecosystems, environmental changes that occur at higher elevations have downstream impacts on the waters below. Today, these two ecosystems are undergoing changes in...
Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate

Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate

Steep, mountainous watersheds, dramatic climate gradients, and tight links between the land and sea are common features of both the Pacific Islands and Southeast Alaska. In these "ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean" ecosystems, environmental changes that occur at higher elevations have downstream impacts on the waters below. Today, these two ecosystems are undergoing changes in climate that are
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A Guide to Modeling Low Flows and Intermittent Streams in the Pacific Northwest

As droughts become more frequent, there is a growing need to understand how drought impacts streamflow permanence. Intermittent streams, or streams that go dry at some point during the year, are found in all ecoregions and represent over half of the global stream network length. As stream intermittence increases, there will be implications for both aquatic and terrestrial wildlife...
A Guide to Modeling Low Flows and Intermittent Streams in the Pacific Northwest

A Guide to Modeling Low Flows and Intermittent Streams in the Pacific Northwest

As droughts become more frequent, there is a growing need to understand how drought impacts streamflow permanence. Intermittent streams, or streams that go dry at some point during the year, are found in all ecoregions and represent over half of the global stream network length. As stream intermittence increases, there will be implications for both aquatic and terrestrial wildlife communities
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