Publications

The relationship (scaling) between scalar moment, M0, and duration, T, potentially provides key constraints on the physics governing fault slip. The prevailing interpretation of M0-T observations proposes different scaling for fast (earthquakes) and slow (mostly aseismic) slip populations and thus fundamentally different driving mechanisms. We show that a single model of slip events...

Following earthquakes, faults are often observed to continue slipping aseismically. It has been proposed that this afterslip occurs on parts of the fault with rate-strengthening friction that are stressed by the mainshock, but our understanding has been limited by a lack of immediate, high-resolution observations. Here we show that the behavior of afterslip following the 2014 South Napa...

This article reports on a workshop held to explore the potential uses of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). We discuss the current status of OEF in the United States and elsewhere, the types of products that could be generated, the various potential users and uses of OEF, and the need for carefully crafted communication protocols. Although operationalization challenges remain...

We investigate the aftershock sequence of the 2014 MW6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake. Low-magnitude aftershocks missing from the network catalog are detected by applying a matched-filter approach to continuous seismic data, with the catalog earthquakes serving as the waveform templates. We measure precise differential arrival times between events, which we use for double...

Presented is a new approach for picking P‐phase arrival time in single‐component acceleration or broadband velocity records without requiring detection interval or threshold settings. The algorithm PPHASEPICKER transforms the signal into a response domain of a single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) oscillator with viscous damping and then tracks the rate of change of dissipated damping energy...

A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data...

Post-earthquake financial decision-making is a realm beyond that of many people. In the immediate aftermath of a damaging earthquake, billions of dollars of relief, recovery, and insurance funds are in the balance through new financial instruments that allow those with resources to hedge against disasters and those at risk to limit their earthquake losses and receive funds for response...

Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking...

The southern San Andreas Fault in California has hosted two historic surface-rupturing earthquakes, the ~M7 1812 Wrightwood earthquake and the ~M7.9 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake (e.g., Sieh, 1978; Jacoby et al., 1988). Numerous paleoseismic studies have established chronologies of historic and prehistoric earthquakes at sites along the full length of the 1857 rupture (e.g., Sieh, 1978...

The magnitude 4.0 earthquake that occurred on October 16, 2012, near Hollis Center and Waterboro in southwestern Maine surprised and startled local residents but caused only minor damage. A two-person U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) team was sent to Maine to conduct an intensity survey and document the damage. The only damage we observed was the failure of a chimney and plaster cracks in...

We invert Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity data to estimate fault slip rates in California using a fault‐based crustal deformation model with geologic constraints. The model assumes buried elastic dislocations across the region using Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault geometries. New GPS velocity and geologic slip‐rate data were compiled by...

Subduction zones contain many of Earth’s most remarkable geologic structures, from the deepest oceanic trenches to glacier-covered mountains and steaming volcanoes. These environments formed through spectacular events: Nature’s largest earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions are born here.