Publications

A large portion of the population of the United States lives in areas vulnerable to earthquake hazards. This investigation aims to quantify population and infrastructure exposure within the conterminous U.S. that are subjected to varying levels of earthquake ground motions by systematically analyzing the last four cycles of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard...

This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings...

Accurate information on the timing of earliest marine incursion into the Gulf of California (northwestern México) is critical for paleogeographic models and for understanding the spatial and temporal evolution of strain accommodation across the obliquely divergent Pacific-North America plate boundary. Marine strata exposed on southwest Isla Tiburón (SWIT) have been cited as evidence for...

We report our findings from a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program-funded project to develop and test a wireless, portable, strong-motion network of up to 40 triaxial accelerometers for structural health monitoring. The overall goal of the project was to record ambient vibrations for several days from USGS-instrumented structures. Structural health...

Global Navigation Satellite System data across the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) in the central United States over the period from 2000 through 2014 are analyzed and modeled with several deformation mechanisms including the following: (1) creep on subsurface dislocations, (2) postseismic frictional afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation from the 1811–1812 and 1450 earthquakes in the NMSZ...

Northwest directed slip from the southern San Andreas Fault is transferred to the Mission Creek, Banning, and Garnet Hill fault strands in the northwestern Coachella Valley. How slip is partitioned between these three faults is critical to southern California seismic hazard estimates but is poorly understood. In this paper, we report the first slip rate measured for the Banning fault...

The central United States has undergone a dramatic increase in seismicity over the past 6 years (Fig. 1), rising from an average of 24 M≥3 earthquakes per year in the years 1973–2008 to an average of 193 M≥3 earthquakes in 2009–2014, with 688 occurring in 2014 alone. Multiple damaging earthquakes have occurred during this increase including the 2011 M 5.6 Prague, Oklahoma, earthquake...

Knowledge of the electrical properties of multicomponent systems with gas hydrate, sediments, and pore water is needed to help relate electromagnetic (EM) measurements to specific gas hydrate concentration and distribution patterns in nature. Toward this goal, we built a pressure cell capable of measuring in situ electrical properties of multicomponent systems such that the effects of...

Aftershocks may be driven by stress concentrations left by the main shock rupture or by elastic stress transfer to adjacent fault sections or strands. Aftershocks that occur within the initial rupture may be limited in size, because the scale of the stress concentrations should be smaller than the primary rupture itself. On the other hand, aftershocks that occur on adjacent fault...

A remarkable increase in seismic activity in Oklahoma since 2009 has been shown to correlate closely with enhanced hydrocarbon extraction and associated wastewater disposal; 99% of this recent Oklahoma earthquake activity has occurred within 15 km of a call II injection well (Ellsworth, 2013). In response to this increase in seismic activity, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnered...

Triggered seismicity arising from dynamic stresses is often explained by the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, where elevated pore pressures reduce the effective strength of faults in fluid-saturated rock. The seismic response of a fluid-rock system naturally depends on its hydro-mechanical properties, but accurately assessing how pore-fluid pressure responds to applied stress over large...

I present a long-term earthquake rate model for the central and eastern United States from adaptive smoothed seismicity. By employing pseudoprospective likelihood testing (L-test), I examined the effects of fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and the effects of catalog duration and composition on the ability of the models to forecast the spatial distribution of recent earthquakes. To...