Application of empirical land-cover changes to construct climate change scenarios in federally managed lands
July 23, 2020
Sagebrush-dominant ecosystems in the western United States are highly vulnerable to climatic variability. To understand how these ecosystems will respond under potential future conditions, we correlated changes in National Land Cover Dataset “Back-in-Time” fractional cover maps from 1985-2018 with Daymet climate data in three federally managed preserves in the sagebrush steppe ecosystem: Beaty Butte Herd Management Area, Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge, and Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge. Future (2018 to 2050) abundance and distribution of vegetation cover were modeled at a 300-m resolution under a business-as-usual climate (BAU) scenario and a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Spatially explicit map projections suggest that climate influences may make the landscape more homogeneous in the near future. Specifically, projections indicate that pixels with high bare ground cover become less bare ground dominant, pixels with moderate herbaceous cover contain less herbaceous cover, and pixels with low shrub cover contain more shrub cover. General vegetation patterns and composition do not differ dramatically between scenarios despite RCP 8.5 projections of + 1.2 °C mean annual minimum temperatures and +7.6 mm total annual precipitation. Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge is forecast to undergo the most change, with both models projecting larger declines in bare ground and larger increases in average herbaceous and shrub cover compared to Beaty Butte Herd Management Area and Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge. These scenarios present plausible future outcomes intended to guide federal land managers to identify vegetation cover changes that may affect habitat condition and availability for species of interest.
Citation Information
Publication Year | 2020 |
---|---|
Title | Application of empirical land-cover changes to construct climate change scenarios in federally managed lands |
DOI | 10.3390/rs12152360 |
Authors | Christopher E. Soulard, Matthew B. Rigge |
Publication Type | Article |
Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Series Title | Remote Sensing |
Index ID | 70211324 |
Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
USGS Organization | Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center; Western Geographic Science Center |
Related
Spatially-explicit land-cover scenarios of federal lands in the northern Great Basin, 2018-2050
As part of a 2018 Northwest Climate Adaptation and Science Center project, USGS researchers are releasing a series of spatially-explicit land-cover projections for the period 2018-2050 covering part of the northern Great Basin (Beaty Butte Herd Management Area, Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge, and Sheldon National Refuge). The dataset contains an empirically-based business-as...
Related
Spatially-explicit land-cover scenarios of federal lands in the northern Great Basin, 2018-2050
As part of a 2018 Northwest Climate Adaptation and Science Center project, USGS researchers are releasing a series of spatially-explicit land-cover projections for the period 2018-2050 covering part of the northern Great Basin (Beaty Butte Herd Management Area, Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge, and Sheldon National Refuge). The dataset contains an empirically-based business-as...