Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Forecasts of coastal change hazards

June 30, 2019

Model predictions of severe storm impacts provide coastal residents, emergency managers, and partner organizations valuable predictive information for planning and response to extreme storm events. The foundation of this work is a USGS-developed numerical model to forecast storm-induced coastal water levels and expected coastal change, including dune erosion, overwash, and inundation. The model is operated in three modes: generalized scenarios, real-time storms, and an operational forecast, with each mode requiring slightly different water level inputs. To evaluate and improve the accuracy of the models, we collect data on water levels and coastal change. In particular, observations before, after, and during storm conditions are used to test the different model applications. Forecast validation for Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Irma (2017) illustrate three cases with demonstrated forecast skill and three cases with poor skill, and reveal elements of the modeling and/or testing approach which require improvement.

Publication Year 2019
Title Forecasts of coastal change hazards
DOI 10.1142/9789811204487_0122
Authors Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Joseph Long, Nathaniel G. Plant
Publication Type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Index ID 70202422
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center