I am current involved in 4 primary research and applied projects. These projects all focus on understanding, predicting, and assessing aspects of coastal change and the interaction of these changes with natural or human systems. The projects differ in the focal time scale, which ranges from climate-change time scales (100s to 1000s of years) to event time scales (hours to days). And the projects differ in the balance between fundamental and applied research leading to assessments of coastal vulnerabilities that impact coastal management. My approach is to use applications (e.g., oil spill, hurricane, and endangered species response) to focus fundamental research on objectives that will have intrinsic scientific value as well as societal impact. The common thread for my research efforts are (1) coupling of the interacting physical, biological, and societal systems models, (2) development of these models and increasing their skill and accuracy, and (3) evaluating model-based hypotheses with robust and powerful statistical methods.
Science and Products
The influence of bed friction variability due to land cover on storm-driven barrier island morphodynamics
Variations in bed friction due to land cover type have the potential to influence morphologic change during storm events; the importance of these variations can be studied through numerical simulation and experimentation at locations with sufficient observational data to initialize realistic scenarios, evaluate model accuracy and guide...Passeri, Davina; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, Scott C.
Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection
Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods...Zeigler, Sara; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan K.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M.
Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands: Chapter 4
This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time...Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara; Stockdon, Hilary F.
Coastal Topography—Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia, Post-Hurricane Hermine, 10–12 September 2016
Lidar-derived seamless (bare earth and submerged) topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM) mosaic and classified point-cloud datasets were produced from remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements collected post-Hurricane Hermine on September 10–12, 2016.Fredericks, Alexandra M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.
Correction of elevation offsets in multiple co-located lidar datasets
IntroductionTopographic elevation data collected with airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) can be used to analyze short- and long-term changes to beach and dune systems. Analysis of multiple lidar datasets at Dauphin Island, Alabama, revealed systematic, island-wide elevation differences on the order of 10s of centimeters (cm) that were...Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.
Storm-impact scenario XBeach model inputs and tesults
The XBeach model input and output of topography and bathymetry resulting from simulation of storm-impact scenarios at the Chandeleur Islands, LA, as described in USGS Open-File Report 2017–1009 (https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171009), are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of model output...Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Dalyander, P. Soupy
A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios
A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-...Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy
Estuarine shoreline and sandline change model skill and predicted probabilities
The Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment was created to calibrate and test probability models of barrier island estuarine shoreline and sandline change for study areas in Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey. The models examined the influence of hydrologic and physical variables related to long-term and event-driven (...Smith, Kathryn E. L.; Passeri, Davina; Plant, Nathaniel G.
Coastal Topography—Long Island, New York, Post-Hurricane Irene, 30 August 2011
Lidar-derived bare-earth topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM) mosaic and classified point-cloud datasets were produced from remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements collected post-Hurricane Irene on August 30, 2011 for Long Island, New York, using a Leica ALS50-II.Fredericks, Xan; Plant, Nathaniel G.
Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics
Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential...Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Henderson, Rachel E. ; Schwab, William C.; Nelson, Timothy R.
Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico
We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and...Plant, Nathaniel G.; Wahl, Thomas; Long, Joseph W.
Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood
Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments1, 2, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making3. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach...Lentz, Erika E.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Horton, Radley M.; Gesch, Dean B.