I am the Center Director for the Saint Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, where I support scientists working on coastal research topics such as coastal hazards due to storms and sea-level rise; sediment availability and distribution; and response of coastal communities, wetlands, corals, and microbial ecosystems to extreme events and persistent changes to our coastal environment.
I have served in this capacity since October 2018, initially in an acting capacity and permanently since April 2019.
Prior to becoming Center Director, my role with the USGS was as an oceanographer. Past research projects included scientific applications to coastal management, such as assessing storm-induced and long-term coastal erosion or identification of future nesting habitat for endangered shore bird species. Throughout my research career, I have lived in a range of coastal communities in California, Mississippi, and Florida, as well as the Netherlands, and the Washington, DC area. I received my Ph.D. in Marine Geology from Oregon State University’s Oceanography program in 1998.
Science and Products
Remote Sensing Coastal Change
iCoast - Did the Coast Change?
Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision Support
Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise Assessment for the Northeastern United States
Hurricane Sandy Response- Linking the Delmarva Peninsula's Geologic Framework to Coastal Vulnerability
Beach-dependent Shorebirds
Coastal Landscape- Structured Decision Making
Coastal Landscape- Change Predictions
Hurricane Sandy Response - Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment
Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Integration of Processes over Different Spatial and Temporal Scales
Forecasting Coastal Change
Shorelines Derived From Continuous Video-Imagery at the NASA-Kennedy Space Center, Florida From August 2011 to July 2012
Dauphin Island Decadal Forecast Evolution Model Inputs and Results
Dauphin Island Decadal Hindcast Model Inputs and Results
iCoast - Did the Coast Change? Crowd-Sourced Coastal Classifications for Hurricane Sandy
Dauphin Island Storms and Sea Level Rise Assessment: XBeach Model Inputs and Results
XBeach Bottom Friction Scenarios: Model Inputs and Results
Coastal Topography-Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, 23-25 June 2016
Estuarine Shoreline and Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities
Coastal Topography - Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia, Post-Hurricane Hermine, 10-12 September 2016
Storm-Impact Scenario XBeach Model Inputs and Results
Coastal Topography-Long Island, New York, Post-Hurricane Irene, 30 August 2011
EAARL Coastal Topography-Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, 4-5 September 2010: Seamless (Bare Earth and Submerged)
Integrating Bayesian networks to forecast sea-level rise impacts on barrier island characteristics and habitat availability
Predicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for people and plovers
Satellite-derived barrier response and recovery following natural and anthropogenic perturbations, northern Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana
Piping plovers demonstrate regional differences in nesting habitat selection patterns along the U.S. Atlantic coast
Development and application of an empirical dune growth model for evaluating barrier island recovery from storms
Probabilistic patterns of inundation and biogeomorphic changes due to sea-level rise along the northeastern U.S. Atlantic coast
The roles of storminess and sea level rise in decadal barrier island evolution
Application of decadal modeling approach to forecast barrier island evolution, Dauphin Island, Alabama
Development of a modeling framework for predicting decadal barrier island evolution
Blind testing of shoreline evolution models
A pragmatic approach for comparing species distribution models to increasing confidence in managing piping plover habitat
U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy— Promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation
LinkedBNs_4Habitat - Matlab files to link Bayesian networks to generate habitat predictions
Science and Products
- Science
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Remote Sensing Coastal Change
We use remote-sensing technologies—such as aerial photography, satellite imagery, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry, and lidar (laser-based surveying)—to measure coastal change along U.S. shorelines.iCoast - Did the Coast Change?
iCoast has now been retired. When active, it allowed citizen scientists to identify changes to the coast by comparing aerial photographs taken before and after storms.Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision Support
The Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project assesses present and future coastal vulnerability to provide actionable information for management of our Nation’s coasts. Through multidisciplinary research and collaborative partnerships with decision-makers, physical, biological, and social factors that describe landscape and habitat changes are incorporated in a probabilistic modeling...Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise Assessment for the Northeastern United States
As part of the USGS Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project, this assessment seeks to predict the response to sea-level rise across the coastal landscape under a range of future scenarios by evaluating the likelihood of inundation as well as dynamic coastal change. The research is being conducted in conjunction with resource managers and decision makers from federal and state agencies...Hurricane Sandy Response- Linking the Delmarva Peninsula's Geologic Framework to Coastal Vulnerability
The Delmarva Peninsula is a 220-kilometer-long headland, spit, and barrier island complex that was significantly affected by Hurricane Sandy. In order to better constrain controls on coastal vulnerability and evolution, the region’s sediment sources, transport pathways and sediment sinks must be identified. This project defines the geologic framework of the Delmarva coastal system through...Beach-dependent Shorebirds
Policy-makers, individuals from government agencies, and natural resource managers are under increasing pressure to manage changing coastal areas to meet social, economic, and natural resource demands, particularly under a regime of sea-level rise. Scientific knowledge of coastal processes and habitat-use can support decision-makers as they balance these often-conflicting human and ecological...Coastal Landscape- Structured Decision Making
An effort to better understand the effects that sea-level rise (SLR) is likely to have on the coastal zone has brought together a network of Department of Interior collaborators and academic partners through the DOI North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NALCC) and Northeast Climate Science Center. The USGS Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project is developing decision...Coastal Landscape- Change Predictions
Sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on the coastal landscape are presented here as: 1) level of landscape submergence (adjusted land elevation with respect to projected mean high water levels); and 2) coastal response type characterized as either static (for example, inundation) or dynamic (for example, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades...Hurricane Sandy Response - Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment
This project integrated a wetland assessment with existing coastal-change hazard assessments for the adjacent dunes and beaches of Assateague Island, Maryland, to create a more comprehensive coastal vulnerability assessment.Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Process studies examine the physical processes at work prior to, during, and following coastal storm events. Understanding the processes involved in coastal landform evolution will improve the accuracy of the assessments of storm-induced coastal change hazards.Integration of Processes over Different Spatial and Temporal Scales
This research uses state-of-the-art observations, numerical models, and model-data assimilation techniques to better understand their cumulative effect on coastal change.Forecasting Coastal Change
This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety. - Data
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Shorelines Derived From Continuous Video-Imagery at the NASA-Kennedy Space Center, Florida From August 2011 to July 2012
In 2010, a video camera was installed near the northern boundary of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Kennedy Space Center (NASA-KSC) property along the Atlantic coast of Florida. A region extending 1 kilometer (km) to the south of the camera was established as the region of interest for the video image observations. During every daylight hour of camera operation from August 8, 201Dauphin Island Decadal Forecast Evolution Model Inputs and Results
The model input and output of topography and bathymetry values resulting from forecast simulations of coupled modeling scenarios occurring between 2015 and 2025 at Dauphin Island, Alabama, and described in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File Report 2020-1001 (https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201001), are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of mDauphin Island Decadal Hindcast Model Inputs and Results
The model input and output of bathymetry and topography elevations resulting from a deterministic simulation from 2004 to 2015 at Dauphin Island, Alabama, as described in Mickey and others (2020), are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of model output topography and bathymetry refer to Mickey and others (2020). For more information visit: MiciCoast - Did the Coast Change? Crowd-Sourced Coastal Classifications for Hurricane Sandy
On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall as a post-tropical storm near Brigantine, New Jersey, with sustained winds of 70 knots (80 miles per hour) and tropical-storm-force winds extending 870 nautical miles in diameter (Blake, et. al, 2013). The effects of Sandy's winds and storm surge included erosion of the beaches and dunes as well as breaching of barrier islands in both natural andDauphin Island Storms and Sea Level Rise Assessment: XBeach Model Inputs and Results
XBeach was used to simulate hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005) at Dauphin Island, Alabama, under present-day conditions and future sea level rise (SLR) scenarios as described in Passeri and others, 2018. Model inputs and outputs in the form of topography and bathymetry are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of model output topography anXBeach Bottom Friction Scenarios: Model Inputs and Results
Various bottom friction scenarios were simulated for hurricanes Ivan and Katrina at Dauphin Island, AL, using XBeach, as described in Passeri and others, 2017. Model inputs and outputs in the form of topography are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of model output topography and bathymetry, refer to Passeri and others, 2017. Passeri, D.L., LCoastal Topography-Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, 23-25 June 2016
Lidar-derived seamless (bare earth and submerged) topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM) mosaic and classified point-cloud datasets of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana were produced from remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements collected June 23-25, 2016.Estuarine Shoreline and Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities
The Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment was created to calibrate and test probability models of barrier island estuarine shoreline and sandline change for study areas in Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey. The models examined the influence of hydrologic and physical variables related to long-term and event-driven (Hurricane Sandy) estuarine back-barrier shoreline and ovCoastal Topography - Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia, Post-Hurricane Hermine, 10-12 September 2016
Lidar-derived seamless (bare earth and submerged) topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM) mosaic and classified point-cloud datasets were produced from remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements collected post-Hurricane Hermine on September 10-12, 2016.Storm-Impact Scenario XBeach Model Inputs and Results
The XBeach model input and output of topography and bathymetry resulting from simulation of storm-impact scenarios at the Chandeleur Islands, LA, as described in USGS Open-File Report 2017-1009 (https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171009), are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of model output topography and bathymetry refer to USGS Open-File ReportCoastal Topography-Long Island, New York, Post-Hurricane Irene, 30 August 2011
Lidar-derived bare-earth topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM) mosaic and classified point-cloud datasets were produced from remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements collected post-Hurricane Irene on August 30, 2011 for Long Island, New York, using a Leica ALS50-II.EAARL Coastal Topography-Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, 4-5 September 2010: Seamless (Bare Earth and Submerged)
This XYZ dataset, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provides lidar-derived seamless (bare earth and submerged) topography for the Chandeleur Islands in Louisiana. Elevation measurements were acquired by the first-generation Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) on September 4 and 5, 2010. The data were collected as part of a se - Multimedia
- Publications
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Integrating Bayesian networks to forecast sea-level rise impacts on barrier island characteristics and habitat availability
Evaluation of sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on coastal landforms and habitats is a persistent need for informing coastal planning and management, including policy decisions, particularly those that balance human interests and habitat protection throughout the coastal zone. Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to model barrier island change under different SLR scenarios that are relevant to management aAuthorsBenjamin T. Gutierrez, Sara Zeigler, Erika E. Lentz, Emily J. Sturdivant, Nathaniel PlantPredicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for people and plovers
Forecasting biogeomorphological conditions for barrier islands is critical for informing sea-level rise (SLR) planning, including management of coastal development and ecosystems. We combined five probabilistic models to predict SLR-driven changes and their implications on Fire Island, New York, by 2050. We predicted barrier island biogeomorphological conditions, dynamic landcover response, pipingAuthorsSara Lynn Zeigler, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Erika E. Lentz, Nathaniel Plant, Emily J. Sturdivant, Kara S. DoranSatellite-derived barrier response and recovery following natural and anthropogenic perturbations, northern Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana
The magnitude and frequency of storm events, relative sea-level rise (RSLR), sediment supply, and anthropogenic alterations drive the morphologic evolution of barrier island systems, although the relative importance of any one driver will vary with the spatial and temporal scales considered. To explore the relative contributions of storms and human alterations to sediment supply on de-cadal changeAuthorsJulie Bernier, Jennifer L. Miselis, Nathaniel PlantPiping plovers demonstrate regional differences in nesting habitat selection patterns along the U.S. Atlantic coast
Habitat studies that encompass a large portion of a species’ geographic distribution can explain characteristics that are either consistent or variable, further informing inference from more localized studies and improving management successes throughout the range. We identified landscape characteristics at Piping Plover nests at 21 sites distributed from Massachusetts to North Carolina and comparAuthorsSara Lynn Zeigler, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Anne Hecht, Nathaniel Plant, Emily J. SturdivantDevelopment and application of an empirical dune growth model for evaluating barrier island recovery from storms
Coastal zone managers require models that predict barrier island change on decadal time scales to estimate coastal vulnerability, and plan habitat restoration and coastal protection projects. To meet these needs, methods must be available for predicting dune recovery as well as dune erosion. In the present study, an empirical dune growth model (EDGR) was developed to predict the evolution of the pAuthorsPatricia (Soupy) Dalyander, Rangley C. Mickey, Davina Passeri, Nathaniel G. PlantProbabilistic patterns of inundation and biogeomorphic changes due to sea-level rise along the northeastern U.S. Atlantic coast
ContextCoastal landscapes evolve in response to sea-level rise (SLR) through a variety of geologic processes and ecological feedbacks. When the SLR rate surpasses the rate at which these processes build elevation and drive lateral migration, inundation is likely.ObjectivesTo examine the role of land cover diversity and composition in landscape response to SLR across the northeastern United States.AuthorsErika E. Lentz, Sara L. Zeigler, E. Robert Thieler, Nathaniel G. PlantThe roles of storminess and sea level rise in decadal barrier island evolution
Models of alongshore sediment transport during quiescent conditions, storm‐driven barrier island morphology, and poststorm dune recovery are integrated to assess decadal barrier island evolution under scenarios of increased sea levels and variability in storminess (intensity and frequency). Model results indicate barrier island response regimes of keeping pace, narrowing, flattening, deflation (naAuthorsDavina Passeri, P. Soupy Dalyander, Joseph W. Long, Rangley C. Mickey, Robert L. Jenkins, David M. Thompson, Nathaniel G. Plant, Elizabeth Godsey, Victor GonzalezApplication of decadal modeling approach to forecast barrier island evolution, Dauphin Island, Alabama
Forecasting barrier island evolution provides coastal managers and stakeholders the ability to assess the resiliency of these important coastal environments that are home to both established communities and existing natural habitats. This study uses an established coupled model framework to assess how Dauphin Island, Alabama, responds to various storm and sea-level change scenarios, along with a sAuthorsRangley C. Mickey, Elizabeth Godsey, P. Soupy Dalyander, Victor Gonzalez, Robert L. Jenkins, Joseph W. Long, David M. Thompson, Nathaniel G. PlantDevelopment of a modeling framework for predicting decadal barrier island evolution
Predicting the decadal evolution of barrier island systems is important for coastal managers who propose restoration or preservation alternatives aimed at increasing the resiliency of the island and its associated habitats or communities. Existing numerical models for simulating morphologic changes typically include either long-term (for example, longshore transport under quiescent conditions) orAuthorsRangley C. Mickey, Joseph W. Long, P. Soupy Dalyander, Robert L. Jenkins, David M. Thompson, Davina Passeri, Nathaniel G. PlantBlind testing of shoreline evolution models
Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show resAuthorsJennifer Montaño, Giovanni Coco, Jose Antolinez, Tomas Beuzen, Karin Bryan, Laura Cagigal, Bruno Castelle, Mark Davidson, Evan B. Goldstein, Raimundo Ibaceta, Déborah Idier, Bonnie C. Ludka, Sina Masoud-Ansari, Fernando Mendez, A. Brad Murray, Nathaniel G. Plant, Katherine Ratlif, Arthur Robinet, Ana Rueda, Nadia Sénéchal, Joshua Simmons, Kristen Splinter, Scott Stephens, Ian Townend, Sean Vitousek, Kilian VosA pragmatic approach for comparing species distribution models to increasing confidence in managing piping plover habitat
Conservation management often requires decision-making without perfect knowledge of the at-risk species or ecosystem. Species distribution models (SDMs) are useful but largely under-utilized due to model uncertainty. We provide a case study that utilizes an ensemble modeling approach of two independently derived SDMs to explicitly address common modeling impediments and to directly inform conservaAuthorsBrooke Maslo, Sara Zeigler, Evan Drake, Todd Pover, Nathaniel G. PlantU.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy— Promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation
Executive SummaryThe mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understAuthorsRobert R. Holmes, Lucile M. Jones, Jeffery C. Eidenshink, Jonathan W. Godt, Stephen H. Kirby, Jeffrey J. Love, Christina A. Neal, Nathaniel G. Plant, Michael L. Plunkett, Craig S. Weaver, Anne Wein, Suzanne C. Perry - Software
LinkedBNs_4Habitat - Matlab files to link Bayesian networks to generate habitat predictions
Matlab m-files that were used to generate performance tests and hindcasts for geomorphologic characteristics and piping plover habitat probabilities for Fire Island New York - News