My work at USGS is aimed at improving our understanding of coastal change processes, developing innovative methods for forecasting coastal change, applying these methods to identify potential hazards along our Nation’s coastlines, and then sharing the information with coastal stakeholders.
Hilary Stockdon is currently the Acting Program Coordinator for the Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program with the U.S. Geological Survey. For almost 20 years, she has been part of a multifaceted project that quantifies how sea level rise, storms and long-term erosion are shaping our shorelines. Her research contributions include advances in:
- Real-time forecasts and scenario-based predictions of coastal total water level and geomorphic change during storms
- Use of wave runup parameterization in coastal hazard assessments
- Barrier island response to extreme storms and hurricanes
- Modeling wave swash, setup, and runup
- Lidar-derived measures of coastal change
Her work is both fundamental and applied: rigorous science on coastal processes is used to create tools for decision makers who are responsible for preparedness, response, and resilience along our coastlines. Her work on the effects of storms on the coastal communities of our Nation has raised public awareness about the value of scientific information on coastal vulnerability, helping residents prepare for future events. Most recently, she served as a Science Advisor for the Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, helping to develop a National initiative for coastal change hazards research and applications.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. Oceanography Oregon State University
M.S. Oceanography Oregon State University
B.S. Geology Duke University
Science and Products
Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast
Vulnerability of National Park Service beaches to inundation during a direct hurricane landfall: Cape Lookout National Seashore
Vulnerability of National Park Service beaches to inundation during a direct hurricane landfall: Cumberland Island National Seashore
Hurricane Matthew: Predictions, observations, and an analysis of coastal change
Forecasts of coastal change hazards
iCoast – Did the Coast Change?: Storm-impact model verification using citizen scientists
The influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels: Linking large-scale changes of the wave climate to local coastal hazards
Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands
The relative contribution of waves, tides, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels on U.S. West Coast sandy beaches
Testing model parameters for wave‐induced dune erosion using observations from Hurricane Sandy
Dune management challenges on developed coasts
National assessment of nor’easter-induced coastal erosion hazards: mid- and northeast Atlantic coast
iCoast - Did the Coast Change?
Coastal Change Hazards
Hurricane Sandy Response - Storm Impacts and Vulnerability of Coastal Beaches
Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Forecasting Coastal Change
National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards
Lidar-derived Beach Morphology (Dune Crest, Dune Toe, and Shoreline) for U.S. Sandy Coastlines
Storm-Induced Coastal Change Forecasts: Archive of Individual Storm Events
Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer
Total water level (TWL) at the shoreline is the combination of tides, surge, and wave runup. A forecast of TWL is an estimate of the elevation where the ocean will meet the coast and can provide guidance on potential coastal erosion and flooding hazards.
National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards: South Carolina to New Hampshire update
Coastal Change Hazards Portal
Interactive access to coastal change science and data for our Nation’s coasts. Information and products are organized within three coastal change hazard themes: 1) extreme storms, 2) shoreline change, and 3) sea-level rise. Displays probabilities of coastal erosion.
Science and Products
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Filter Total Items: 44
Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast
Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable to coastalVulnerability of National Park Service beaches to inundation during a direct hurricane landfall: Cape Lookout National Seashore
Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier-island coastal park in North Carolina, is vulnerable to the powerful, sand-moving forces of hurricanes. Waves and storm surge associated with these strong tropical storms are part of a natural process in barrier-island evolution and can cause extensive morphologic changes in coastal parks, leading to road closures and reduced visitor accessibility. The vulVulnerability of National Park Service beaches to inundation during a direct hurricane landfall: Cumberland Island National Seashore
Cumberland Island National Seashore, a barrier-island coastal park in Georgia, is vulnerable to the powerful, sand-moving forces of hurricanes. Waves and storm surge associated with these strong tropical storms are part of the natural process of barrier-island evolution and can cause extensive morphologic changes in coastal parks, leading to reduced visitor accessibility and enjoyment. The vulneraHurricane Matthew: Predictions, observations, and an analysis of coastal change
Hurricane Matthew, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of the 2016 hurricane season, made land-fall south of McClellanville, S.C., around 1500 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on October 8, 2016. Hurricane Matthew affected the States of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina along the U.S. Atlantic coastline. Numerous barrier islands were breached, and the erosion of beaches and dunes oForecasts of coastal change hazards
Model predictions of severe storm impacts provide coastal residents, emergency managers, and partner organizations valuable predictive information for planning and response to extreme storm events. The foundation of this work is a USGS-developed numerical model to forecast storm-induced coastal water levels and expected coastal change, including dune erosion, overwash, and inundation. The model isiCoast – Did the Coast Change?: Storm-impact model verification using citizen scientists
The USGS provides model predictions of severe storm impacts prior to landfall based on pre-storm morphology and predicted total water levels, including waves and surge. Presented in near real time on the USGS Coastal Change Hazard Portal, they provide coastal residents, scientists, and emergency managers valuable coastal response information. iCoast – Did the Coast Change?, an online tool for compThe influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels: Linking large-scale changes of the wave climate to local coastal hazards
Total water levels (TWLs) at the coast are driven by a combination of deterministic (e.g., tides) and stochastic (e.g., waves, storm surge, and sea level anomalies) processes. The contribution of each process to TWLs varies depending on regional differences in climate and framework geology, as well as local-scale variations in beach morphology, coastal orientation, and shelf bathymetry. Large-scalExamples of storm impacts on barrier islands
This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time series of island elevation measurements have documentThe relative contribution of waves, tides, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels on U.S. West Coast sandy beaches
To better understand how individual processes combine to cause flooding and erosion events, we investigate the relative contribution of tides, waves, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels (TWLs) at the shoreline of U.S. West Coast sandy beaches. Extreme TWLs, defined as the observed annual maximum event and the simulated 100 year return level event, peak in Washington, and are on avTesting model parameters for wave‐induced dune erosion using observations from Hurricane Sandy
Models of dune erosion depend on a set of assumptions that dictate the predicted evolution of dunes throughout the duration of a storm. Lidar observations made before and after Hurricane Sandy at over 800 profiles with diverse dune elevations, widths, and volumes are used to quantify specific dune erosion model parameters including the dune face slope, which controls dune avalanching, and the trajDune management challenges on developed coasts
From October 26-28, 2015, nearly 100 members of the coastal management and research communities met in Kitty Hawk, NC, USA to bridge the apparent gap between the coastal dune research of scientists and engineers and the needs of coastal management practitioners. The workshop aimed to identify the challenges involved in building and managing dunes on developed coasts, assess the extent to which sciNational assessment of nor’easter-induced coastal erosion hazards: mid- and northeast Atlantic coast
Beaches serve as a natural buffer between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and natural resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During extreme storms, changes to beaches can be great, and the results are sometimes catastrophic. Lives may be lost, communities destroyed, and millions of dollars spent on rebuilding. During - Science
iCoast - Did the Coast Change?
iCoast has now been retired. When active, it allowed citizen scientists to identify changes to the coast by comparing aerial photographs taken before and after storms.Coastal Change Hazards
Natural processes such as waves, tides, and weather, continually change coastal landscapes. The integrity of coastal homes, businesses, and infrastructure can be threatened by hazards associated with event-driven changes, such as extreme storms and their impacts on beach and dune erosion, or longer-term, cumulative changes associated with coastal and marine processes, such as sea-level rise...Hurricane Sandy Response - Storm Impacts and Vulnerability of Coastal Beaches
Scientists evaluated and improved the accuracy of pre-landfall forecasts of storm-induced coastal erosion hazards for Northeast beaches using data from post-Sandy lidar sruveys, beach morphology, and storm hydrodamics.Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Process studies examine the physical processes at work prior to, during, and following coastal storm events. Understanding the processes involved in coastal landform evolution will improve the accuracy of the assessments of storm-induced coastal change hazards.Forecasting Coastal Change
This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards
Research to identify areas that are most vulnerable to coastal change hazards including beach and dune erosion, long-term shoreline change, and sea-level rise. - Data
Lidar-derived Beach Morphology (Dune Crest, Dune Toe, and Shoreline) for U.S. Sandy Coastlines
The USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project aims to identify areas of the nation's coastline that are most vulnerable to extreme storms and long-term shoreline change. These assessments require coastal elevation data across diverse geographic regions and covering a time span of many years. The datasets published here, organized by individual field activity numbers (FANs), definStorm-Induced Coastal Change Forecasts: Archive of Individual Storm Events
These data sets contain information on the probabilities of storm-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) on sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts during real-time peak forecast conditions. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will responTotal Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer
Total water level (TWL) at the shoreline is the combination of tides, surge, and wave runup. A forecast of TWL is an estimate of the elevation where the ocean will meet the coast and can provide guidance on potential coastal erosion and flooding hazards.
National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards: South Carolina to New Hampshire update
These data sets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 1-km section of the U.S. coast for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of - Web Tools
Coastal Change Hazards Portal
Interactive access to coastal change science and data for our Nation’s coasts. Information and products are organized within three coastal change hazard themes: 1) extreme storms, 2) shoreline change, and 3) sea-level rise. Displays probabilities of coastal erosion.
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