Hilary Stockdon
My work at USGS is aimed at improving our understanding of coastal change processes, developing innovative methods for forecasting coastal change, applying these methods to identify potential hazards along our Nation’s coastlines, and then sharing the information with coastal stakeholders.
Biography
Hilary Stockdon is a Research Oceanographer with the U.S. Geological Survey. For almost 20 years, she has been part of a multifaceted project that quantifies how sea level rise, storms and long-term erosion are shaping our shorelines. Her research contributions include advances in:
- Real-time forecasts and scenario-based predictions of coastal total water level and geomorphic change during storms
- Use of wave runup parameterization in coastal hazard assessments
- Barrier island response to extreme storms and hurricanes
- Modeling wave swash, setup, and runup
- Lidar-derived measures of coastal change
Her work is both fundamental and applied: rigorous science on coastal processes is used to create tools for decision makers who are responsible for preparedness, response, and resilience along our coastlines. Her work on the effects of storms on the coastal communities of our Nation has raised public awareness about the value of scientific information on coastal vulnerability, helping residents prepare for future events. She is currently acting as a Science Advisor for the Coastal and Marine Geology Program, helping to develop National programs for coastal change hazards research and applications.
Education
Ph.D. Oceanography Oregon State University
M.S. Oceanography Oregon State University
B.S. Geology Duke University
Science and Products
Hurricane Sandy Response - Storm Impacts and Vulnerability of Coastal Beaches
Scientists evaluated and improved the accuracy of pre-landfall forecasts of storm-induced coastal erosion hazards for Northeast beaches using data from post-Sandy lidar sruveys, beach morphology, and storm hydrodamics.
National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards
This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards
Research to identify areas that are most vulnerable to coastal change hazards including beach and dune erosion, long-term shoreline change, and sea-level rise.
Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer
Total water level (TWL) at the shoreline is the combination of tides, surge, and wave runup. A forecast of TWL is an estimate of the elevation where the ocean will meet the coast and can provide guidance on potential coastal erosion and flooding hazards.
Coastal Change Hazards Portal
Interactive access to coastal change science and data for our Nation’s coasts. Information and products are organized within three coastal change hazard themes: 1) extreme storms, 2) shoreline change, and 3) sea-level rise. Displays probabilities of coastal erosion.
Hurricane Matthew: Predictions, observations, and an analysis of coastal change
Hurricane Matthew, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of the 2016 hurricane season, made land-fall south of McClellanville, S.C., around 1500 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on October 8, 2016. Hurricane Matthew affected the States of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina along the U.S. Atlantic coastline. Numerous barrier islands...
Birchler, Justin J.; Doran, Kara S.; Long, Joseph W.; Stockdon, Hilary F.
Forecasts of coastal change hazards
Model predictions of severe storm impacts provide coastal residents, emergency managers, and partner organizations valuable predictive information for planning and response to extreme storm events. The foundation of this work is a USGS-developed numerical model to forecast storm-induced coastal water levels and expected coastal change, including...
Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Joseph Long; Plant, Nathaniel G. iCoast – Did the Coast Change?: Storm-impact model verification using citizen scientists
The USGS provides model predictions of severe storm impacts prior to landfall based on pre-storm morphology and predicted total water levels, including waves and surge. Presented in near real time on the USGS Coastal Change Hazard Portal, they provide coastal residents, scientists, and emergency managers valuable coastal response information....
Morgan, Karen L M; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Richard J. Snell The influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels: Linking large-scale changes of the wave climate to local coastal hazards
Total water levels (TWLs) at the coast are driven by a combination of deterministic (e.g., tides) and stochastic (e.g., waves, storm surge, and sea level anomalies) processes. The contribution of each process to TWLs varies depending on regional differences in climate and framework geology, as well as local-scale variations in beach morphology,...
Katherine A. Serafin; Peter Ruggiero; Barnard, Patrick L.; Stockdon, Hilary F. Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands: Chapter 4
This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time...
Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F. Lidar-derived beach morphology (dune crest, dune toe, and shoreline) for U.S. sandy coastlines
The USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project aims to identify areas of the nation’s coastline that are most vulnerable to extreme storms and long-term shoreline change. These assessments require coastal elevation data across diverse geographic regions and covering a time span of many years. The datasets published here,...
Doran, Kara; Long, Joseph W.; Birchler, Justin; Brenner, Owen T.; Hardy, Matthew; Morgan, Karen L. M.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Torres, Miguel Loubriel The relative contribution of waves, tides, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels on U.S. West Coast sandy beaches
To better understand how individual processes combine to cause flooding and erosion events, we investigate the relative contribution of tides, waves, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels (TWLs) at the shoreline of U.S. West Coast sandy beaches. Extreme TWLs, defined as the observed annual maximum event and the simulated 100 ...
Serafin, Katherine A.; Ruggiero, Peter; Stockdon, Hilary F. Testing model parameters for wave‐induced dune erosion using observations from Hurricane Sandy
Models of dune erosion depend on a set of assumptions that dictate the predicted evolution of dunes throughout the duration of a storm. Lidar observations made before and after Hurricane Sandy at over 800 profiles with diverse dune elevations, widths, and volumes are used to quantify specific dune erosion model parameters including the dune face...
Overbeck, Jacquelyn R.; Long, Joseph W.; Stockdon, Hilary F. National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards—Gulf of Mexico update
These data sets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 1-km section of the Gulf of Mexico coast for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to...
Doran, Kara; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Birchler, Justin; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Overbeck, Jacquelyn R. National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards—South Carolina to New Hampshire update
These data sets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 1-km section of the U.S. coast for category 1–5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict...
Doran, Kara; Birchler, Justin; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Morgan, Karen L. M.; Brenner, Owen T. Dune management challenges on developed coasts
From October 26-28, 2015, nearly 100 members of the coastal management and research communities met in Kitty Hawk, NC, USA to bridge the apparent gap between the coastal dune research of scientists and engineers and the needs of coastal management practitioners. The workshop aimed to identify the challenges involved in building and managing dunes...
Elko, Nicole A.; Brodie, Kate; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Nordstrom, Karl F.; Houser, Chris; McKenna, Kim; Moore, Laura; Rosati, Julie D.; Ruggiero, Peter; Thuman, Roberta; Walker, Ian J.
National assessment of nor’easter-induced coastal erosion hazards: mid- and northeast Atlantic coast
Beaches serve as a natural buffer between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and natural resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During extreme storms, changes to beaches can be great, and the results are sometimes catastrophic. Lives may be lost, communities destroyed,...
Birchler, Justin J.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.
Scientists Prepare for Hurricane Season with New Tools and Data that Advance Forecasting of Storm Impacts
As hurricane season officially begins, scientists with the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project are ready to provide scientific information, data, and tools to guide hurricane response and recovery efforts for U.S. shorelines.
FL, GA, SC Beaches Face 80-95 Percent Chance of Erosion from Hurricane Matthew
As the east coast prepares for Hurricane Matthew's arrival, the U.S. Geological Survey uses advanced models to forecast the coastal impacts Matthew could bring.
This hurricane season, scientists bring wave action into the picture
New USGS models help predict storm effects on beaches
This hurricane season, scientists bring wave action into the picture
New USGS models help predict storm effects on beaches
As the 2016 hurricane season opens, weather forecasters, emergency managers and coastal residents have access to tools developed by the U.S. Geological Survey that predict, more precisely than ever, where beach erosion and beachfront flooding will take place during hurricanes and other storms.
Forecasting Coastal Change Prior to Hurricanes Takes Leap Forward
When the next hurricane heads toward a coastal community in the United States, residents and emergency managers busily readying for the storm will have a new resource available to help them better understand what to expect – a detailed forecast of how the storm may change the coast.