Peak streamflow trends in Minnesota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This report chapter summarizes the effect of hydroclimatic variability of annual peak streamflow in Minnesota and is part of a larger U.S. Geological Survey multistate study to assess potential nonstationarity in annual peak streamflows across the Midwest. Spatial and temporal patterns were examined for nonstationarity in annual peak streamflow, daily mean streamflow, and modeled climatic data in four analysis periods: (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. Upward trends in annual peak streamflow were detected in northwest to southeast and north to south directions. Downward trends in annual peak streamflow were detected in northeastern and southeastern areas. Trends in peak-flow timing indicated that peak streamflows are being detected later in the water year (the period from October 1 to September 30 designated by the year in which it ends) mainly in the southern areas and earlier in the water year mainly in the northern areas.

Changes in climate data point to wetter conditions in southern areas and drier conditions in northern areas. Annual precipitation was determined to be increasing in a northwest to southeast direction and in the east. In contrast, some areas in the north and northwest indicated decreasing annual precipitation. Annual snowfall was determined to be decreasing except in the extreme northeast, where annual snowfall was determined to be increasing. Decreases in annual potential evapotranspiration were detected in the south, and increases were detected in the north. Annual soil moisture increased in southern areas and decreased in northern and eastern areas. The potential spatial and temporal nonstationarity violations detected in the four analysis periods have important implications for flood-frequency analysis and point to the need for guidance on how to incorporate nonstationarities into future flood-frequency analysis in Minnesota.