The following provides a short synopsis of current and recently completely projects using USGS EROS’ FORE-SCE model, and where applicable, links to download data. Additional project information and data will be made available as our research progresses.
Please contact the principal investigator for any questions regarding the projects below, or for queries about data access.
Conterminous United States Landscape Projections from 1992 to 2100: The USGS LandCarbon project assessed the potential storage and emissions of carbon and greenhouse gases in biological systems across the United States. A component of the work was an assessment of historic, current, and future landscape change on biogeochemical cycling. Historic landscape change from 1992 to 2005 was mapped and modeled for the conterminous United States, while scenarios of future LULC through 2100 were modeled for four IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Data characteristics and access through ScienceBase are as follows:
- Geographic Coverage – Conterminous United States
- Spatial Resolution – 250-meter pixel
- Thematic Resolution – 17 land-use and land-cover classes
- Temporal Resolution – Annual raster maps from 1992 through 2100
- Additional data layers on forest age over time
Data Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5b96c2f9e4b0702d0e826f6d
Recommended Citation: Sohl, TL, Sayler, KL, Bouchard, MA, Reker, RR, Freisz, AM, Bennett, SL, Sleeter, BM, Sleeter, RR, Wilson, T, Soulard, C, Knuppe, M, and Van Hofwegen, T, 2014, Spatially explicit modeling of 1992 to 2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States. Ecological Applications 24(5):1115-1136. https://doi.org/10.1890/13-1245.1
Land-use and Land-cover Backcasting from 1938 to 1992: Annual, historical land-cover maps were modeled from 1938 to 1992, based on best available tabular and statistical data, including data from the Agriculture Census, Population Census, USGS Land Cover Trends, and other sources. The data are thematically and spatially consistent with the land-cover projections produced as part of the National Assessesment of Ecosystem Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes project. The combined data from the two projects thus provides consistent, annual land-cover maps from 1938 to 2100 for the conterminous US. Data characteristics and access through ScienceBase are as follows:
- Geographic Coverage – Conterminous United States
- Spatial Resolution – 250-meter pixel
- Thematic Resolution – 17 land-use and land-cover classes
- Temporal Resolution – Annual raster maps from 1938 through 1992
Data Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/59d3c73de4b05fe04cc3d1d1
Recommended Citation: Sohl, T.L., Reker, R., Bouchard, M., Sayler, K., Dornbierer, J., Wika, S., Quenzer, R., and Friesz, A., 2016, Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States. Journal of Land Use Science 11(4):476-499. https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2016.1147619
Bird Species Modeling in the Conterminous United States: Species distribution models often use climate change information to assess potential changes in bird species range in the future, but rarely use projected land use information. We used projected land use data, projected climate data, and information on current bird species' distributions to model the relative impacts of land use and climate on both current and future distributions. Results for 50 modeled species indicate that both climate and land-use change may strongly impact bird species distributions in the conterminous United States by 2075. Data characteristics and access through ScienceBase are as follows:
- Geographic Coverage – Conterminous United States
- Current and projected estimated range for 50 bird species
- Scenarios including climate change, land-cover change, and both
- Spatial Resolution – 250-meter pixel
Data Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5bb390e3e4b08583a5d75096
Recommended Citation: Sohl, T.L., 2014, The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075, PLoS ONE 9(11): e112251.
High-resolution, parcel-based modeling in the Great Plains: A new version of FORE-SCE was developed to produce high spatial- and thematic-resolution land-cover projections across broad geographic areas, using real land ownership and management boundaries to mimic parcel-level change. Eleven land-use scenarios and 3 climate realizations are being modeled, with 33 unique scenario combinations. The Great Plains are being modeled in three individual regions, two of which are available for download. Data characteristics and access through ScienceBase are as follows:
- Geographic Coverage – Great Plains (two of three regions currently complete)
- Spatial Resolution – 30-meter pixel
- Thematic Resolution – 29 land-use and land-cover classes, including crop type
- Temporal Resolution – 10-year intervals from 2014 through 2100
- Scenarios – 11 anthropogenic land-use scenarios and 3 climate realizations.
Prairie Potholes Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5b683db2e4b006a11f75b06a
Southern/Central Great Plains Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/59fc7d9be4b0531197b2ea75
Long-Term (1680-2100), high-resolution, parcel-based modeling in the Delaware River Basin: The FORE-SCE model was used to generate land cover datasets reaching back in time to 1680 and forward in time to 2100 with similar spatial and thematic resolution to contemporary-era land use and land cover products. Historical reconstruction utilizes both spatial and nonspatial historical reference datasets. Future projections were conducted under multiple economic and climate scenarios. This prototype, conducting in the Delaware River Basin, demonstrates the results of an extensible modeling methodology with potential for national scale application. Data characteristics and access through ScienceBase are as follows:
- Geographic Coverage – Delaware River Basin
- Spatial Resolution – 30-meter pixel
- Thematic Resolution – 20 land-use and land-cover classes, including multiple crop types
- Temporal Resolution – 10-year intervals from 1680 through 2100
- Future Scenarios – 7 anthropogenic land-use scenarios, under 3 climate realizations (2018-2100)
Data Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/605c987fd34ec5fa65eb6a74
Recommended Citation: Dornbierer, J.; Wika, S.; Robison, C.; Rouze, G.; Sohl, T. Prototyping a Methodology for Long-Term (1680–2100) Historical-to-Future Landscape Modeling for the Conterminous United States. Land 2021, 10, 536. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10050536
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Conterminous United States Land Cover Projections - 1992 to 2100
Long-term database of historical, current, and future land cover for the Delaware River Basin (1680 through 2100)
Conterminous United States Land Cover Projections - 1992 to 2100
33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region
Below are publications associated with this project.
Prototyping a methodology for long-term (1680-2100) historical-to-future landscape modeling for the conterminous United States
Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States
The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075
Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States
- Overview
The following provides a short synopsis of current and recently completely projects using USGS EROS’ FORE-SCE model, and where applicable, links to download data. Additional project information and data will be made available as our research progresses.
Please contact the principal investigator for any questions regarding the projects below, or for queries about data access.
Conterminous United States Landscape Projections from 1992 to 2100: The USGS LandCarbon project assessed the potential storage and emissions of carbon and greenhouse gases in biological systems across the United States. A component of the work was an assessment of historic, current, and future landscape change on biogeochemical cycling. Historic landscape change from 1992 to 2005 was mapped and modeled for the conterminous United States, while scenarios of future LULC through 2100 were modeled for four IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Data characteristics and access through ScienceBase are as follows:
- Geographic Coverage – Conterminous United States
- Spatial Resolution – 250-meter pixel
- Thematic Resolution – 17 land-use and land-cover classes
- Temporal Resolution – Annual raster maps from 1992 through 2100
- Additional data layers on forest age over time
Data Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5b96c2f9e4b0702d0e826f6d
Recommended Citation: Sohl, TL, Sayler, KL, Bouchard, MA, Reker, RR, Freisz, AM, Bennett, SL, Sleeter, BM, Sleeter, RR, Wilson, T, Soulard, C, Knuppe, M, and Van Hofwegen, T, 2014, Spatially explicit modeling of 1992 to 2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States. Ecological Applications 24(5):1115-1136. https://doi.org/10.1890/13-1245.1
Land-use and Land-cover Backcasting from 1938 to 1992: Annual, historical land-cover maps were modeled from 1938 to 1992, based on best available tabular and statistical data, including data from the Agriculture Census, Population Census, USGS Land Cover Trends, and other sources. The data are thematically and spatially consistent with the land-cover projections produced as part of the National Assessesment of Ecosystem Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes project. The combined data from the two projects thus provides consistent, annual land-cover maps from 1938 to 2100 for the conterminous US. Data characteristics and access through ScienceBase are as follows:
- Geographic Coverage – Conterminous United States
- Spatial Resolution – 250-meter pixel
- Thematic Resolution – 17 land-use and land-cover classes
- Temporal Resolution – Annual raster maps from 1938 through 1992
Data Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/59d3c73de4b05fe04cc3d1d1
Recommended Citation: Sohl, T.L., Reker, R., Bouchard, M., Sayler, K., Dornbierer, J., Wika, S., Quenzer, R., and Friesz, A., 2016, Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States. Journal of Land Use Science 11(4):476-499. https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2016.1147619
Bird Species Modeling in the Conterminous United States: Species distribution models often use climate change information to assess potential changes in bird species range in the future, but rarely use projected land use information. We used projected land use data, projected climate data, and information on current bird species' distributions to model the relative impacts of land use and climate on both current and future distributions. Results for 50 modeled species indicate that both climate and land-use change may strongly impact bird species distributions in the conterminous United States by 2075. Data characteristics and access through ScienceBase are as follows:
- Geographic Coverage – Conterminous United States
- Current and projected estimated range for 50 bird species
- Scenarios including climate change, land-cover change, and both
- Spatial Resolution – 250-meter pixel
Data Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5bb390e3e4b08583a5d75096
Recommended Citation: Sohl, T.L., 2014, The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075, PLoS ONE 9(11): e112251.
High-resolution, parcel-based modeling in the Great Plains: A new version of FORE-SCE was developed to produce high spatial- and thematic-resolution land-cover projections across broad geographic areas, using real land ownership and management boundaries to mimic parcel-level change. Eleven land-use scenarios and 3 climate realizations are being modeled, with 33 unique scenario combinations. The Great Plains are being modeled in three individual regions, two of which are available for download. Data characteristics and access through ScienceBase are as follows:
- Geographic Coverage – Great Plains (two of three regions currently complete)
- Spatial Resolution – 30-meter pixel
- Thematic Resolution – 29 land-use and land-cover classes, including crop type
- Temporal Resolution – 10-year intervals from 2014 through 2100
- Scenarios – 11 anthropogenic land-use scenarios and 3 climate realizations.
Prairie Potholes Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5b683db2e4b006a11f75b06a
Southern/Central Great Plains Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/59fc7d9be4b0531197b2ea75
Long-Term (1680-2100), high-resolution, parcel-based modeling in the Delaware River Basin: The FORE-SCE model was used to generate land cover datasets reaching back in time to 1680 and forward in time to 2100 with similar spatial and thematic resolution to contemporary-era land use and land cover products. Historical reconstruction utilizes both spatial and nonspatial historical reference datasets. Future projections were conducted under multiple economic and climate scenarios. This prototype, conducting in the Delaware River Basin, demonstrates the results of an extensible modeling methodology with potential for national scale application. Data characteristics and access through ScienceBase are as follows:
- Geographic Coverage – Delaware River Basin
- Spatial Resolution – 30-meter pixel
- Thematic Resolution – 20 land-use and land-cover classes, including multiple crop types
- Temporal Resolution – 10-year intervals from 1680 through 2100
- Future Scenarios – 7 anthropogenic land-use scenarios, under 3 climate realizations (2018-2100)
Data Access: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/605c987fd34ec5fa65eb6a74
Recommended Citation: Dornbierer, J.; Wika, S.; Robison, C.; Rouze, G.; Sohl, T. Prototyping a Methodology for Long-Term (1680–2100) Historical-to-Future Landscape Modeling for the Conterminous United States. Land 2021, 10, 536. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10050536
- Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Conterminous United States Land Cover Projections - 1992 to 2100
The USGS's FORE-SCE model was used to produce land-use and land-cover (LULC) projections for the conterminous United States. The projections were originally created as part of the "LandCarbon" project, an effort to understand biological carbon sequestration potential in the United States. However, the projections are being used for a wide variety of purposes, including analyses of the efLong-term database of historical, current, and future land cover for the Delaware River Basin (1680 through 2100)
The USGS's FORE-SCE model was used to produce a long-term landscape dataset for the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Using historical landscape reconstruction and scenario-based future projections, the data provided land-use and land-cover (LULC) data for the DRB from year 1680 through 2100, with future projections from 2020-2100 modeled for 7 different socioeconomic-based scenarios, and 3 climate realConterminous United States Land Cover Projections - 1992 to 2100
The USGS's FORE-SCE model was used to produce land-use and land-cover (LULC) projections for the conterminous United States. The projections were originally created as part of the "LandCarbon" project, an effort to understand biological carbon sequestration potential in the United States. However, the projections are being used for a wide variety of purposes, including analyses of the ef33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region
A new version of USGSs FORE-SCE model was used to produce unprecedented landscape projections for four ecoregions in the Great Plains (corresponding to the area represented by the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative). The projections are characterized by 1) high spatial resolution (30-meter cells), 2) high thematic resolution (29 land use and land cover classes), 3) broad spatial exten - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Prototyping a methodology for long-term (1680-2100) historical-to-future landscape modeling for the conterminous United States
Land system change has been identified as one of four major Earth system processes where change has passed a destabilizing threshold. A historical record of landscape change is required to understand the impacts change has had on human and natural systems, while scenarios of future landscape change are required to facilitate planning and mitigation efforts. A methodology for modeling long-term hisModeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States
The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landThe relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075
Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird specSpatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States
Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental