Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Andrea O'Neill

Oceanographer with the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

I'm an oceanographer and meteorologist with the Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center in Santa Cruz, CA. I have expertise in coastal and marine hazards projections, hydrodynamic simulations, and coastal impacts from long-term and extreme storms.

Professional Experience

  • Following 11 years of meteorological and oceanographic forecasting in the Western Pacific for the U.S. Navy, I joined the USGS doing long-term coastal flooding hazards projections using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS).

Education and Certifications

  • B.S. in Oceanography from the University of Washington in Seattle, WA

  • M.S. in physical oceanography and meteorology from Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA

Science and Products

link
Aerial view of coastal bluffs, marine terrace with farmland, beach in distance with lagoon, highway runs along coast.

Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.

The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Big Sur Landslides, Subduction Zone Science
link

Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.

The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
Learn More
link
An interactive mapping application in which the user can choose parameters from the menus to create a computer model of flooding

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities
link

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
Learn More

Satellite-derived shorelines from CoastSeg in multiple U.S. locations (1984-2023)

This dataset contains shoreline positions derived from available satellite imagery for multiple locations (Barter Island, Alaska; Elwha, Washington; Cape Cod, Massachusetts; Madeira Beach, Florida; and Rincon, Puerto Rico) across the United States for the time period 1984 to 2023, to support ongoing remote-sensing development and validation efforts.
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Satellite-derived shorelines for the U.S. Gulf Coast states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida for the period 1984-2022, obtained using CoastSat

This dataset contains shoreline positions derived from available Landsat satellite imagery for four states (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida) along the U.S. Gulf coast for the time period 1984 to 2022. An open-source toolbox, CoastSat (Vos and others, 2019a and 2019b), was used to classify coastal Landsat imagery and detect shorelines at the sub-pixel scale. Resulting...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise

This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands across California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast

This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts

This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1g, April 2025)

This dataset includes coastal flood and associated hazard projections for Humboldt County from Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). CoSMoS makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.1 for Central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level-rise scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. Resulting projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) provide emergency...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Hydrodynamic and sediment transport data from San Pablo Bay and China Camp marsh (northern San Francisco Bay), 2013-2016

The U.S. Geological Survey Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center collected data to investigate sediment dynamics in the shallows of San Pablo Bay and sediment exchange between bay shallows and the tidal salt marsh in China Camp State Park in a series of deployments between December 2013 and June 2016. This data release includes two related groups of data sets. The first group...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Near-surface wind fields for San Francisco Bay--historical and 21st-century projected time series

To support Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in the San Francisco Bay (v2.1), time series of historical and 21st-century near-surface wind fields (eastward and northward wind arrays) were simulated throughout the Bay. While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Photograph of Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk and Main Beach in winter of 2016 when big storms hit the California coast.
Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter
Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter
Photograph of Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk and Main Beach in winter of 2016 when big storms hit the California coast.

Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter

Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter

View of the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk amusement park in Santa Cruz, California. Photo was taken from the bluff on East Cliff Drive, east of the San Lorenzo River mouth. Sand on the beach gets eroded, redistributed, and deposited due to the dynamic conditions brought about by storms and changing river flow.

By
Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Photograph of Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk and Main Beach in winter of 2016 when big storms hit the California coast.

Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter

Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter

View of the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk amusement park in Santa Cruz, California. Photo was taken from the bluff on East Cliff Drive, east of the San Lorenzo River mouth. Sand on the beach gets eroded, redistributed, and deposited due to the dynamic conditions brought about by storms and changing river flow.

By
Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Filter Total Items: 16

Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic

Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Kevin Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C Engelstad, Li Erikson, Amy Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert T. McCall, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Kees Nederhoff, Andrea O'Neill, Kai Alexander Parker, Manoochehr Shirzaei, Leonard O. Ohenhen, Peter W. Swarzenski, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Killian Vos, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Jamie Jones
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise

Coastal change is a complex combination of multi-scale processes (e.g., wave-driven cross-shore and longshore transport; dune, bluff, and cliff erosion; overwash; fluvial and inlet sediment supply; and sea-level-driven recession). Historical sea-level-driven coastal recession on open ocean coasts is often outpaced by wave-driven change. However, future sea-level-driven coastal recession...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos, Kristen Splinter, Kai Alexander Parker, Andrea O'Neill, Amy Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Li Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

A dataset of two-dimensional XBeach model set-up files for northern California

Here, we describe a dataset of two-dimensional (2D) XBeach model files that were developed for the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in northern California as an update to an earlier CoSMoS implementation that relied on one-dimensional (1D) modeling methods. We provide details on the data and their application, such that they might be useful to end-users for other coastal studies...
Authors
Andrea O'Neill, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Forecasting storm-induced coastal flooding for 21st century sea-level rise scenarios in the Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands

Oceanographic, coastal engineering, ecologic, and geospatial data and tools were combined to evaluate the increased risks of storm-induced coastal flooding in the populated Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands as a result of climate change and sea-level rise. We followed a hybrid (dynamical and statistical) downscaling approach to map flooding due to waves and storm surge at 10...
Authors
Curt D. Storlazzi, Borja G. Reguero, Camila Gaido L., Kristen A. Alkins, Chris Lowry, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li Erikson, Andrea O'Neill, Michael W. Beck
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models

In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This...
Authors
Sanne Muis, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts, Jose Antolinez, Job C. Dullaart, Trang Minh Duong, Li Erikson, Rein J. Haarsma, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Matthias Mengel, Dewi Le Bars, Andrea O'Neill, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Malcolm J. Roberts, Martin Verlaan, Philip J. Ward, Kun Yan
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018)

In this work, we show that large-scale compound flood models developed for North and South Carolina, USA, can skillfully simulate multiple drivers of coastal flooding as confirmed by measurements collected during Hurricane Florence (2018). Besides the accuracy of representing observed water levels, the importance of individual processes was investigated. We demonstrate that across the...
Authors
Tim Leijnse, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Kai Alexander Parker, Maarten van Ormondt, Li Erikson, Robert T. McCall, Ap R. van Dongeren, Andrea O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Projecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model

Numerical models for tides, storm surge, and wave runup have demonstrated ability to accurately define spatially varying flood surfaces. However these models are typically too computationally expensive to dynamically simulate the full parameter space of future oceanographic, atmospheric, and hydrologic conditions that will constructively compound in the nearshore to cause both extreme...
Authors
D. W. Anderson, P. Ruggiero, F. J. Mendez, Patrick L. Barnard, Li Erikson, Andrea O'Neill, M. Merrifield, A. Rueda, Laura Cagigal, J. M. Marra
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood risk across a much greater area. Rivers...
Authors
Andrea O'Neill, Li Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Li Erikson, Amy Foxgrover, Juliette Finzi Hart, Patrick W. Limber, Andrea O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Nathan J. Wood, Maya Kumari Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Identification of storm events and contiguous coastal sections for deterministic modeling of extreme coastal flood events in response to climate change

Deterministic dynamical modeling of future climate conditions and associated hazards, such as flooding, can be computationally-expensive if century-long time-series of waves, sea level variations, and overland flow patterns are simulated. To alleviate some of the computational costs, local impacts of individual coastal storms can be explored by first identifying particular events or...
Authors
Li Erikson, Antonio Espejo, Patrick L. Barnard, Katherine A. Serafin, Christie Hegermiller, Andrea O'Neill, Peter Ruggerio, Patrick W. Limber, Fernando J. Mendez
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast

Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we currently know them. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion...
Authors
Li Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea O'Neill, Patrick W. Limber, Sean Vitousek, Juliette Finzi Hart, Maya Kumari Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones, Nathan J. Wood, Michael Fitzgibbon, Amy Foxgrover, Jessica Lovering
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically...
Authors
Li Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea O'Neill, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Juliette Finzi Hart, Sean Vitousek, Patrick W. Limber, Maya Kumari Hayden, Michael Fitzgibbon, Jessica Lovering, Amy Foxgrover
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Forecasting Coastal Retreat Along U.S. South Atlantic Coast by Year 2100

Forecasting Coastal Retreat Along U.S. South Atlantic Coast by Year 2100

Coastal erosion is an increasingly urgent issue as rising seas and wave-driven processes reshape shorelines worldwide. New modeling by USGS combines...

Read Article
USGS CoSMoS web tool preferred by coastal practitioners in California Coastal Adaptation Needs Assessment

USGS CoSMoS web tool preferred by coastal practitioners in California Coastal Adaptation Needs Assessment

In the latest (2023) California Coastal Adaptation Needs Assessment, coastal practitioners have identified the USGS “Our Coast, Our Future” web tool...

Read Article
New flood hazard products to support coastal climate adaptation planning in Northern California

New flood hazard products to support coastal climate adaptation planning in Northern California

UPDATE APRIL 29, 2025: The USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) flood hazard products are now available for Humboldt and Del Norte counties...

Read Article
The Complex Dynamics of Coastal Flooding along the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast

The Complex Dynamics of Coastal Flooding along the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast

New research led by Deltares, USGS, and USACE investigates the interplay between tropical and extratropical cyclones in driving coastal flooding along...

Read Article
Forecasting Storm-Induced Coastal Flooding for the Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands

Forecasting Storm-Induced Coastal Flooding for the Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands

A team of USGS researchers and partners has integrated oceanographic, coastal engineering, ecological, and geospatial data and tools to model the...

Read Article
Using Climate Models for Global Storm Surge Projections

Using Climate Models for Global Storm Surge Projections

In new research, an international team of scientists including USGS oceanographers utilized advanced global hydrodynamic and climate models to project...

Read Article
USGS and NASA researchers meet to discuss Synthetic Aperture Radar for assessing USGS coastal-flooding projections

USGS and NASA researchers meet to discuss Synthetic Aperture Radar for assessing USGS coastal-flooding projections

USGS and NASA researchers met July 16 at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to discuss Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery of the Southern...

Read Article

Science and Products

link
Aerial view of coastal bluffs, marine terrace with farmland, beach in distance with lagoon, highway runs along coast.

Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.

The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Big Sur Landslides, Subduction Zone Science
link

Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.

The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
Learn More
link
An interactive mapping application in which the user can choose parameters from the menus to create a computer model of flooding

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities
link

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
Learn More

Satellite-derived shorelines from CoastSeg in multiple U.S. locations (1984-2023)

This dataset contains shoreline positions derived from available satellite imagery for multiple locations (Barter Island, Alaska; Elwha, Washington; Cape Cod, Massachusetts; Madeira Beach, Florida; and Rincon, Puerto Rico) across the United States for the time period 1984 to 2023, to support ongoing remote-sensing development and validation efforts.
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Satellite-derived shorelines for the U.S. Gulf Coast states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida for the period 1984-2022, obtained using CoastSat

This dataset contains shoreline positions derived from available Landsat satellite imagery for four states (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida) along the U.S. Gulf coast for the time period 1984 to 2022. An open-source toolbox, CoastSat (Vos and others, 2019a and 2019b), was used to classify coastal Landsat imagery and detect shorelines at the sub-pixel scale. Resulting...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise

This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands across California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast

This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts

This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1g, April 2025)

This dataset includes coastal flood and associated hazard projections for Humboldt County from Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). CoSMoS makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.1 for Central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level-rise scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. Resulting projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) provide emergency...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Hydrodynamic and sediment transport data from San Pablo Bay and China Camp marsh (northern San Francisco Bay), 2013-2016

The U.S. Geological Survey Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center collected data to investigate sediment dynamics in the shallows of San Pablo Bay and sediment exchange between bay shallows and the tidal salt marsh in China Camp State Park in a series of deployments between December 2013 and June 2016. This data release includes two related groups of data sets. The first group...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Near-surface wind fields for San Francisco Bay--historical and 21st-century projected time series

To support Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in the San Francisco Bay (v2.1), time series of historical and 21st-century near-surface wind fields (eastward and northward wind arrays) were simulated throughout the Bay. While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Photograph of Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk and Main Beach in winter of 2016 when big storms hit the California coast.
Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter
Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter
Photograph of Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk and Main Beach in winter of 2016 when big storms hit the California coast.

Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter

Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter

View of the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk amusement park in Santa Cruz, California. Photo was taken from the bluff on East Cliff Drive, east of the San Lorenzo River mouth. Sand on the beach gets eroded, redistributed, and deposited due to the dynamic conditions brought about by storms and changing river flow.

By
Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Photograph of Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk and Main Beach in winter of 2016 when big storms hit the California coast.

Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter

Santa Cruz, California's Main Beach in winter

View of the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk amusement park in Santa Cruz, California. Photo was taken from the bluff on East Cliff Drive, east of the San Lorenzo River mouth. Sand on the beach gets eroded, redistributed, and deposited due to the dynamic conditions brought about by storms and changing river flow.

By
Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Filter Total Items: 16

Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic

Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Kevin Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C Engelstad, Li Erikson, Amy Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert T. McCall, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Kees Nederhoff, Andrea O'Neill, Kai Alexander Parker, Manoochehr Shirzaei, Leonard O. Ohenhen, Peter W. Swarzenski, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Killian Vos, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Jamie Jones
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise

Coastal change is a complex combination of multi-scale processes (e.g., wave-driven cross-shore and longshore transport; dune, bluff, and cliff erosion; overwash; fluvial and inlet sediment supply; and sea-level-driven recession). Historical sea-level-driven coastal recession on open ocean coasts is often outpaced by wave-driven change. However, future sea-level-driven coastal recession...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos, Kristen Splinter, Kai Alexander Parker, Andrea O'Neill, Amy Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Li Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

A dataset of two-dimensional XBeach model set-up files for northern California

Here, we describe a dataset of two-dimensional (2D) XBeach model files that were developed for the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in northern California as an update to an earlier CoSMoS implementation that relied on one-dimensional (1D) modeling methods. We provide details on the data and their application, such that they might be useful to end-users for other coastal studies...
Authors
Andrea O'Neill, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Forecasting storm-induced coastal flooding for 21st century sea-level rise scenarios in the Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands

Oceanographic, coastal engineering, ecologic, and geospatial data and tools were combined to evaluate the increased risks of storm-induced coastal flooding in the populated Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands as a result of climate change and sea-level rise. We followed a hybrid (dynamical and statistical) downscaling approach to map flooding due to waves and storm surge at 10...
Authors
Curt D. Storlazzi, Borja G. Reguero, Camila Gaido L., Kristen A. Alkins, Chris Lowry, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li Erikson, Andrea O'Neill, Michael W. Beck
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models

In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This...
Authors
Sanne Muis, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts, Jose Antolinez, Job C. Dullaart, Trang Minh Duong, Li Erikson, Rein J. Haarsma, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Matthias Mengel, Dewi Le Bars, Andrea O'Neill, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Malcolm J. Roberts, Martin Verlaan, Philip J. Ward, Kun Yan
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018)

In this work, we show that large-scale compound flood models developed for North and South Carolina, USA, can skillfully simulate multiple drivers of coastal flooding as confirmed by measurements collected during Hurricane Florence (2018). Besides the accuracy of representing observed water levels, the importance of individual processes was investigated. We demonstrate that across the...
Authors
Tim Leijnse, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Kai Alexander Parker, Maarten van Ormondt, Li Erikson, Robert T. McCall, Ap R. van Dongeren, Andrea O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Projecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model

Numerical models for tides, storm surge, and wave runup have demonstrated ability to accurately define spatially varying flood surfaces. However these models are typically too computationally expensive to dynamically simulate the full parameter space of future oceanographic, atmospheric, and hydrologic conditions that will constructively compound in the nearshore to cause both extreme...
Authors
D. W. Anderson, P. Ruggiero, F. J. Mendez, Patrick L. Barnard, Li Erikson, Andrea O'Neill, M. Merrifield, A. Rueda, Laura Cagigal, J. M. Marra
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood risk across a much greater area. Rivers...
Authors
Andrea O'Neill, Li Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Li Erikson, Amy Foxgrover, Juliette Finzi Hart, Patrick W. Limber, Andrea O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Nathan J. Wood, Maya Kumari Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Identification of storm events and contiguous coastal sections for deterministic modeling of extreme coastal flood events in response to climate change

Deterministic dynamical modeling of future climate conditions and associated hazards, such as flooding, can be computationally-expensive if century-long time-series of waves, sea level variations, and overland flow patterns are simulated. To alleviate some of the computational costs, local impacts of individual coastal storms can be explored by first identifying particular events or...
Authors
Li Erikson, Antonio Espejo, Patrick L. Barnard, Katherine A. Serafin, Christie Hegermiller, Andrea O'Neill, Peter Ruggerio, Patrick W. Limber, Fernando J. Mendez
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast

Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we currently know them. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion...
Authors
Li Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea O'Neill, Patrick W. Limber, Sean Vitousek, Juliette Finzi Hart, Maya Kumari Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones, Nathan J. Wood, Michael Fitzgibbon, Amy Foxgrover, Jessica Lovering
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically...
Authors
Li Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea O'Neill, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Juliette Finzi Hart, Sean Vitousek, Patrick W. Limber, Maya Kumari Hayden, Michael Fitzgibbon, Jessica Lovering, Amy Foxgrover
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Forecasting Coastal Retreat Along U.S. South Atlantic Coast by Year 2100

Forecasting Coastal Retreat Along U.S. South Atlantic Coast by Year 2100

Coastal erosion is an increasingly urgent issue as rising seas and wave-driven processes reshape shorelines worldwide. New modeling by USGS combines...

Read Article
USGS CoSMoS web tool preferred by coastal practitioners in California Coastal Adaptation Needs Assessment

USGS CoSMoS web tool preferred by coastal practitioners in California Coastal Adaptation Needs Assessment

In the latest (2023) California Coastal Adaptation Needs Assessment, coastal practitioners have identified the USGS “Our Coast, Our Future” web tool...

Read Article
New flood hazard products to support coastal climate adaptation planning in Northern California

New flood hazard products to support coastal climate adaptation planning in Northern California

UPDATE APRIL 29, 2025: The USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) flood hazard products are now available for Humboldt and Del Norte counties...

Read Article
The Complex Dynamics of Coastal Flooding along the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast

The Complex Dynamics of Coastal Flooding along the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast

New research led by Deltares, USGS, and USACE investigates the interplay between tropical and extratropical cyclones in driving coastal flooding along...

Read Article
Forecasting Storm-Induced Coastal Flooding for the Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands

Forecasting Storm-Induced Coastal Flooding for the Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands

A team of USGS researchers and partners has integrated oceanographic, coastal engineering, ecological, and geospatial data and tools to model the...

Read Article
Using Climate Models for Global Storm Surge Projections

Using Climate Models for Global Storm Surge Projections

In new research, an international team of scientists including USGS oceanographers utilized advanced global hydrodynamic and climate models to project...

Read Article
USGS and NASA researchers meet to discuss Synthetic Aperture Radar for assessing USGS coastal-flooding projections

USGS and NASA researchers meet to discuss Synthetic Aperture Radar for assessing USGS coastal-flooding projections

USGS and NASA researchers met July 16 at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to discuss Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery of the Southern...

Read Article
Was this page helpful?