Eric Geist
Eric Geist is a research geophysicist with the USGS in Moffett Field, California, where he has worked for over three decades. Throughout his career, he has focused on computer modeling of geophysical phenomena, including large-scale deformation of the earth in response to tectonic forces and the physics of tsunami generation.
For over a decade now, Eric's research has focused on improving our ability to forecast tsunamis and their sources. Eric has authored over 120 journal articles and abstracts, including an article in Scientific American on the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and several review papers on tsunamis.
Research Statement
Natural hazards are the product of complex physical systems. Eric’s research currently focuses on the new field of earthquake combinatorics. This research examines combinations and arrangements of earthquakes on faults to explain a variety of geophysical and geological datasets. Tackling the size of combinatorial problems for fault-scale systems has only recently been made possible through advances in applied mathematics and computer science over the last decade. With newly developed computer algorithms, earthquake combinatorics provides an avenue to investigate earthquake hazards for both offshore and onshore faults.
Eric also investigates the interplay between nonlinear dynamics and a probabilistic description of geophysical processes, particularly as applied to natural hazards and their sources. Recent developments in statistical physics provide many avenues for understanding natural hazards, including how source sizes and outcomes are distributed and how individual natural hazard events occur through time. In addition, stochastic models provide a way to quantify uncertainty associated with source processes as applied to hazard assessments. A natural product of this research is development of new probabilistic methods to forecast natural hazards.
Eric has also examined nonlinear processes associated with long-term and large-scale deformation of the Earth’s lithosphere. Specific projects have included understanding the seismotectonics of island arcs and determining the state of stress and slip rates along major plate-boundary fault systems.
Research Management
2012 – 2017: Co-Leader of Marine Geohazards Project, USGS
2005 – 2012: Co-Leader of Caribbean Tsunami Hazards Project, USGS
2004 – 2007: Co-Leader of FEMA Probabilistic Tsunami Pilot Study: Seaside, Oregon
1998 – 2004: Leader of Modeling and Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Change Hazards Project, USGS
1989 – 1994: Leader of Geodynamic Modeling of Island Arcs Project, USGS
Professional Experience
1992 – Present: Research Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1986 – 1991: Operational Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1985 – 1986: Physical Science Technician, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
Education and Certifications
1985 - M.Sc. in Geophysics, Stanford University
1983 – B.Sc. in Geophysical Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
Honors and Awards
2002, 2011, 2018: American Geophysical Union, Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing
2005: USGS Western Region, Communicator of the Year Award (co-honoree)
1994: Department of the Interior Superior Service Award
1994: Fellow, Geological Society of America
Science and Products
Book review: Rogue waves in the ocean
Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence
Book review: Nonlinear ocean waves and the inverse scattering transform
Reply to “Comment on ‘Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?’ by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist” by Jens-Uwe Klügel
Distribution and tsunamigenic potential of submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico
Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
Is there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?
Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast using relationships between submarine landslides and earthquakes
Hydrodynamic modeling of tsunamis from the Currituck landslide
Tsunamis and splay fault dynamics
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources
Assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast
Science and Products
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- Publications
Filter Total Items: 118
Book review: Rogue waves in the ocean
Rogue Waves in the Ocean (2009) is a follow-on text to Extreme Ocean Waves (2008) edited by Pelinovsky and Kharif, both published by Springer. Unlike the earlier text, which is a compilation of papers on a variety of extreme waves that was the subject of a scientific conference in 2007, Rogues Waves in the Ocean is written, rather than edited, by Kharif, Pelinovsky, and Slunyaev and is focused onAuthorsEric L. GeistAssessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence
The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appearAuthorsE.L. Geist, T. ParsonsBook review: Nonlinear ocean waves and the inverse scattering transform
Nonlinear Ocean Waves and the Inverse Scattering Transform is a comprehensive examination of ocean waves built upon the theory of nonlinear Fourier analysis. The renowned author, Alfred R. Osborne, is perhaps best known for the discovery of internal solitons in the Andaman Sea during the 1970s. In this book, he provides an extensive treatment of nonlinear water waves based on a nonlinear spectrAuthorsEric L. GeistReply to “Comment on ‘Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?’ by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist” by Jens-Uwe Klügel
The focus of Parsons and Geist (2009) was to test whether the key observational data used in earthquake forecasting necessitate a characteristic earthquake rupture model. The point of our article was not to suggest that a specific form of the Gutenberg–Richter earthquake distribution is a perfect representation of reality. The uncertainties surrounding event slip estimates, paleoseismic event rateAuthorsThomas E. Parsons, Eric L. GeistDistribution and tsunamigenic potential of submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico
The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is a geologically diverse ocean basin that includes three distinct geologic provinces: a carbonate province, a salt province, and canyon to deep-sea fan province, all of which contain evidence of submarine mass movements. The threat of submarine landslides in the GOM as a generator of near-field damaging tsunamis has not been widely addressed. Submarine landslides in the GAuthorsJason D. Chaytor, David C. Twichell, Patrick Lynett, Eric L. GeistEstimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual evenAuthorsEric L. Geist, Thomas E. ParsonsIs there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?
The idea that faults rupture in repeated, characteristic earthquakes is central to most probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The concept is elegant in its simplicity, and if the same event has repeated itself multiple times in the past, we might anticipate the next. In practice however, assembling a fault-segmented characteristic earthquake rupture model can grow into a complex task laden with unquAuthorsThomas E. Parsons, Eric L. GeistAssessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast using relationships between submarine landslides and earthquakes
Submarine landslides along the continental slope of the U.S. Atlantic margin are potential sources for tsunamis along the U.S. East coast. The magnitude of potential tsunamis depends on the volume and location of the landslides, and tsunami frequency depends on their recurrence interval. However, the size and recurrence interval of submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin is poorly knowAuthorsUri S. ten Brink, H. J. Lee, E.L. Geist, D. TwichellHydrodynamic modeling of tsunamis from the Currituck landslide
Tsunami generation from the Currituck landslide offshore North Carolina and propagation of waves toward the U.S. coastline are modeled based on recent geotechnical analysis of slide movement. A long and intermediate wave modeling package (COULWAVE) based on the non-linear Boussinesq equations are used to simulate the tsunami. This model includes procedures to incorporate bottom friction, wave breaAuthorsE.L. Geist, P.J. Lynett, J.D. ChaytorTsunamis and splay fault dynamics
The geometry of a fault system can have significant effects on tsunami generation, but most tsunami models to date have not investigated the dynamic processes that determine which path rupture will take in a complex fault system. To gain insight into this problem, we use the 3D finite element method to model the dynamics of a plate boundary/splay fault system. We use the resulting ground deformatiAuthorsJ. Wendt, D. D. Oglesby, E.L. GeistProbabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources
The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amAuthorsF.I. Gonzalez, E.L. Geist, B. Jaffe, U. Kanoglu, H. Mofjeld, C.E. Synolakis, V.V. Titov, D. Areas, D. Bellomo, D. Carlton, T. Horning, J. Johnson, J. Newman, T. Parsons, R. Peters, C. Peterson, G. Priest, A. Venturato, J. Weber, F. Wong, A. YalcinerAssessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast
Estimating the likelihood of tsunamis occurring along the U.S. Atlantic coast critically depends on knowledge of tsunami source probability. We review available information on both earthquake and landslide probabilities from potential sources that could generate local and transoceanic tsunamis. Estimating source probability includes defining both size and recurrence distributions for earthquakes aAuthorsE.L. Geist, T. Parsons - News