Jay Alder
Jay Alder is a Physical Scientist based in Corvallis, Oregon with the Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center. Jay maintains a courtesy faculty position in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University.
Jay is a climate modeler with interests in past, present and future climate change, dynamically downscaling, hydroclimate, and model visualization. He is interested in helping to make climate model information accessible and useful to other scientific disciplines seeking to incorporate future climate change projections into their own work.
Professional Experience
2012-present Physical Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon.
2012-present Courtesy Research Associate, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon.2011-2012 Research Associate, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon.
2009-2011 Student Services, U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon.
2004-2008 Software Developer, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California.
Education and Certifications
PhD, Geography, Oregon State Univ. (2011)
MS, Geography, Oregon State Univ. (2009)
BS, Environmental Science, Univ. of CA, Riverside (2004)
BS, Computer Science, Univ. of CA, Riverside (2004)
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 17
CMIP6-LOCA2 spatial summaries of HU8 and HU10 watershed boundaries from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States CMIP6-LOCA2 spatial summaries of HU8 and HU10 watershed boundaries from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States
Three different CMIP6-LOCA2 based climate projection data sets are spatially averaged over the Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD) using HU8 and HU10 hydrologic units for the contiguous United States to provide time series for analysis. The primary data set is the statistically downscaled CMIP6-LOCA2 (Localized Constructed Analogs, v20220519 version, Pierce et al. 2023), which includes...
CMIP6-LOCA2 threshold and extreme event metric projections from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States CMIP6-LOCA2 threshold and extreme event metric projections from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States
Projections of extreme event metrics and threshold exceedances are produced by analyzing the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 Localized Constructed Analogs (CMIP6-LOCA2) data set. The primary daily temperature and precipitation data are summarized to 36 annual metrics and 4 monthly metrics. This data set includes output from 27 GCMs for the period 1950-2100 under ssp245...
CMIP6 LOCA2 Monthly Water Balance Model Projections 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States CMIP6 LOCA2 Monthly Water Balance Model Projections 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States
A monthly water-balance model (MWBM) is applied to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2100 under ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios for the Contiguous United States. The statistically downscaled LOCA2 temperature and precipitation projections from 27 GCMs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 (CMIP6) are use as input to the water balance model...
Geospatial files and tabular exposure estimates of sinkhole susceptibility for counties in the conterminous United States for current conditions and projections for the years 2070-2079 - Overview Geospatial files and tabular exposure estimates of sinkhole susceptibility for counties in the conterminous United States for current conditions and projections for the years 2070-2079 - Overview
These datasets support the conclusions in the journal article entitled "Current and future sinkhole susceptibility in karst and pseudokarst areas of the conterminous United States" as described in the abstract below: Sinkholes in karst and pseudokarst regions threaten infrastructure, property, and lives. We mapped closed depressions in karst and pseudokarst regions of the conterminous...
Data release for Ice and ocean constraints on early human migrations into North America along the Pacific coast Data release for Ice and ocean constraints on early human migrations into North America along the Pacific coast
Founding populations of the first Americans likely occupied parts of Beringia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (1). The timing, pathways, and modes of their southward transit remain unknown, but blockage of the interior route by North American ice sheets between ~26-14 cal kyr BP (ka) favors a coastal route during this period. Using models and paleoceanographic data from the North...
Data release for Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional Earth structure Data release for Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional Earth structure
Here we use RSL predictions from a 3-D solid Earth model that have been validated by RSL data to update previous paleogeographic reconstructions of the OR-WA coast for the last 12 kyr based on a 1-D solid Earth model. The large differences in the spatial variations in RSL on the OR-WA continental shelves predicted by the 3-D model relative to eustatic and 1-D models demonstrate that...
Filter Total Items: 27
Exposure of cultural resources to 21st-century climate change: Towards a risk management plan Exposure of cultural resources to 21st-century climate change: Towards a risk management plan
Anthropogenic climate change during the 21st century presents a significant challenge to the protection of cultural resources (CRs) on federal lands that encompass ∼ 28% of the U.S. In particular, CRs on this land base may be adversely affected by a wide range of climate-change hazards, including damage by sea-level rise, enhanced deterioration by increasing temperature and precipitation...
Authors
Jorie Clark, Jeremy S. Littell, Jay R. Alder, Nathan Teats
How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin? How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin?
Baseflow is critical to sustaining streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Therefore, effective water resources management requires estimates of baseflow response to climatic changes. This study provides the first estimates of projected baseflow changes from historical (1984 – 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry...
Authors
Olivia L. Miller, Matthew P. Miller, Patrick C. Longley, Jay R. Alder, Lindsay A. Bearup, Tom Pruitt, Daniel K. Jones, Annie L. Putman, Christine Rumsey, Tim S. McKinney
Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: Past, present, and future climate change in the greater Yellowstone watersheds Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: Past, present, and future climate change in the greater Yellowstone watersheds
The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is one of the last remaining large and nearly intact temperate ecosystems on Earth. GYA was originally defined in the 1970s as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, which encompassed the minimum range of the grizzly bear. The boundary now includes about 22 million acres (8.9 million ha) in northwestern Wyoming, south central Montana, and eastern Idaho...
Authors
Steven W. Hostetler, Cathy Whitlock, Bryan Shuman, David Liefert, Charles Wolf Drimal, Scott Bischke
Predicted vulnerability of carbon in permafrost peatlands With future climate change and permafrost thaw in western Canada Predicted vulnerability of carbon in permafrost peatlands With future climate change and permafrost thaw in western Canada
Climate warming in high-latitude regions is thawing carbon-rich permafrost soils, which can release carbon to the atmosphere and enhance climate warming. Using a coupled model of long-term peatland dynamics (Holocene Peat Model, HPM-Arctic), we quantify the potential loss of carbon with future climate warming for six sites with differing climates and permafrost histories in Northwestern...
Authors
Claire C. Treat, Miriam C. Jones, Jay R. Alder, A. Britta K. Sannel, Philip Camill, Steve Frolking
Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States
Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate...
Authors
Olivia L. Miller, Annie L. Putman, Jay R. Alder, Matthew P. Miller, Daniel K. Jones, Daniel Wise
Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
New radiocarbon and sedimentological results from the Gulf of Alaska document recurrent millennial-scale episodes of reorganized Pacific Ocean ventilation synchronous with rapid Cordilleran Ice Sheet discharge, indicating close coupling of ice-ocean dynamics spanning the past 42,000 years. Ventilation of the intermediate-depth North Pacific tracks strength of the Asian monsoon...
Authors
Maureen Walczak, Alan Mix, Ellen Cowan, Stewart Fallon, Keith Fitfield, Jay R. Alder, Jianghui Du, Brian Haley, Tim Hobern, June Padman, Summer K. Praetorius, Andreas Schmittner, Joseph Stoner, Sarah Zellers
Non-USGS Publications**
Alder, J.R., Hostetler, S.W., Pollard, D., Schmittner, A., 2011, Evaluation of a present day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 69- 83, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-69-2011.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 17
CMIP6-LOCA2 spatial summaries of HU8 and HU10 watershed boundaries from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States CMIP6-LOCA2 spatial summaries of HU8 and HU10 watershed boundaries from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States
Three different CMIP6-LOCA2 based climate projection data sets are spatially averaged over the Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD) using HU8 and HU10 hydrologic units for the contiguous United States to provide time series for analysis. The primary data set is the statistically downscaled CMIP6-LOCA2 (Localized Constructed Analogs, v20220519 version, Pierce et al. 2023), which includes...
CMIP6-LOCA2 threshold and extreme event metric projections from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States CMIP6-LOCA2 threshold and extreme event metric projections from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States
Projections of extreme event metrics and threshold exceedances are produced by analyzing the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 Localized Constructed Analogs (CMIP6-LOCA2) data set. The primary daily temperature and precipitation data are summarized to 36 annual metrics and 4 monthly metrics. This data set includes output from 27 GCMs for the period 1950-2100 under ssp245...
CMIP6 LOCA2 Monthly Water Balance Model Projections 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States CMIP6 LOCA2 Monthly Water Balance Model Projections 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States
A monthly water-balance model (MWBM) is applied to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2100 under ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios for the Contiguous United States. The statistically downscaled LOCA2 temperature and precipitation projections from 27 GCMs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 (CMIP6) are use as input to the water balance model...
Geospatial files and tabular exposure estimates of sinkhole susceptibility for counties in the conterminous United States for current conditions and projections for the years 2070-2079 - Overview Geospatial files and tabular exposure estimates of sinkhole susceptibility for counties in the conterminous United States for current conditions and projections for the years 2070-2079 - Overview
These datasets support the conclusions in the journal article entitled "Current and future sinkhole susceptibility in karst and pseudokarst areas of the conterminous United States" as described in the abstract below: Sinkholes in karst and pseudokarst regions threaten infrastructure, property, and lives. We mapped closed depressions in karst and pseudokarst regions of the conterminous...
Data release for Ice and ocean constraints on early human migrations into North America along the Pacific coast Data release for Ice and ocean constraints on early human migrations into North America along the Pacific coast
Founding populations of the first Americans likely occupied parts of Beringia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (1). The timing, pathways, and modes of their southward transit remain unknown, but blockage of the interior route by North American ice sheets between ~26-14 cal kyr BP (ka) favors a coastal route during this period. Using models and paleoceanographic data from the North...
Data release for Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional Earth structure Data release for Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional Earth structure
Here we use RSL predictions from a 3-D solid Earth model that have been validated by RSL data to update previous paleogeographic reconstructions of the OR-WA coast for the last 12 kyr based on a 1-D solid Earth model. The large differences in the spatial variations in RSL on the OR-WA continental shelves predicted by the 3-D model relative to eustatic and 1-D models demonstrate that...
Filter Total Items: 27
Exposure of cultural resources to 21st-century climate change: Towards a risk management plan Exposure of cultural resources to 21st-century climate change: Towards a risk management plan
Anthropogenic climate change during the 21st century presents a significant challenge to the protection of cultural resources (CRs) on federal lands that encompass ∼ 28% of the U.S. In particular, CRs on this land base may be adversely affected by a wide range of climate-change hazards, including damage by sea-level rise, enhanced deterioration by increasing temperature and precipitation...
Authors
Jorie Clark, Jeremy S. Littell, Jay R. Alder, Nathan Teats
How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin? How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin?
Baseflow is critical to sustaining streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Therefore, effective water resources management requires estimates of baseflow response to climatic changes. This study provides the first estimates of projected baseflow changes from historical (1984 – 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry...
Authors
Olivia L. Miller, Matthew P. Miller, Patrick C. Longley, Jay R. Alder, Lindsay A. Bearup, Tom Pruitt, Daniel K. Jones, Annie L. Putman, Christine Rumsey, Tim S. McKinney
Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: Past, present, and future climate change in the greater Yellowstone watersheds Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: Past, present, and future climate change in the greater Yellowstone watersheds
The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is one of the last remaining large and nearly intact temperate ecosystems on Earth. GYA was originally defined in the 1970s as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, which encompassed the minimum range of the grizzly bear. The boundary now includes about 22 million acres (8.9 million ha) in northwestern Wyoming, south central Montana, and eastern Idaho...
Authors
Steven W. Hostetler, Cathy Whitlock, Bryan Shuman, David Liefert, Charles Wolf Drimal, Scott Bischke
Predicted vulnerability of carbon in permafrost peatlands With future climate change and permafrost thaw in western Canada Predicted vulnerability of carbon in permafrost peatlands With future climate change and permafrost thaw in western Canada
Climate warming in high-latitude regions is thawing carbon-rich permafrost soils, which can release carbon to the atmosphere and enhance climate warming. Using a coupled model of long-term peatland dynamics (Holocene Peat Model, HPM-Arctic), we quantify the potential loss of carbon with future climate warming for six sites with differing climates and permafrost histories in Northwestern...
Authors
Claire C. Treat, Miriam C. Jones, Jay R. Alder, A. Britta K. Sannel, Philip Camill, Steve Frolking
Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States
Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate...
Authors
Olivia L. Miller, Annie L. Putman, Jay R. Alder, Matthew P. Miller, Daniel K. Jones, Daniel Wise
Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
New radiocarbon and sedimentological results from the Gulf of Alaska document recurrent millennial-scale episodes of reorganized Pacific Ocean ventilation synchronous with rapid Cordilleran Ice Sheet discharge, indicating close coupling of ice-ocean dynamics spanning the past 42,000 years. Ventilation of the intermediate-depth North Pacific tracks strength of the Asian monsoon...
Authors
Maureen Walczak, Alan Mix, Ellen Cowan, Stewart Fallon, Keith Fitfield, Jay R. Alder, Jianghui Du, Brian Haley, Tim Hobern, June Padman, Summer K. Praetorius, Andreas Schmittner, Joseph Stoner, Sarah Zellers
Non-USGS Publications**
Alder, J.R., Hostetler, S.W., Pollard, D., Schmittner, A., 2011, Evaluation of a present day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 69- 83, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-69-2011.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.