John Sauer, Ph.D.
John Sauer is a Wildlife Biologist at the Eastern Ecological Science Center in Laurel, MD.
He has also worked as a Statistician with the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service and as a Lecturer at the University of Kansas. John is an Elective Fellow of the American Ornithological Society and serves on the Board of Editors of Ecology, Ecological Monographs, and Avian Conservation and Ecology. John has been awarded the AOS Ralph W. Schreiber Conservation Award (2018) and a United States Department of Interior Distinguished Service Award (2018).
John participates in a wide variety of research projects united by the general themes of population ecology, survey design and analysis, geographic and temporal analysis of population change, analysis of count data, geographical ecology, and summary and display of large-scale surveys. Current projects include:
Analysis of population change from count data-John has participated in a series of research projects associated with analysis of population change from count data. Along with a variety of collaborators, he develops methods for analysis of counts in which counts are modeled hierarchically, as over-dispersed Poisson random variables, allowing for adjustment of both factors that influence visibility of animals and factors that actually influence population sizes. These methods are presently being implemented for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the Christmas Bird Count, breeding waterfowl surveys in the Northeastern United States and Canada, and the Woodcock Singing-ground Survey. The methods are also used for spatial modeling and landscape level analyses, addressing questions relevant to conservation and ecology. He conducts yearly analyses of all North American Breeding Bird Survey data, and consults with researchers and managers who use the database.
Development of internet-based procedures for summary and analysis of survey data-In collaboration with other Patuxent staff, John has developed a series of web sites that allow users access to information from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other datasets. Survey data can be accessed at several geographic scales, from individual sample units to continental summaries. A recent innovation is development of a map-based application that integrates BBS and displays BBS results at multiple geographic scale, similar to USGS mapping products associated with water resources. Custom analyses of population change can be conducted for regions, species, and time periods specified by users. Website address: http://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov
Evaluating the Design of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey-The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) is a primary source of waterfowl population status and trend information for management of ducks in North America. John, along with colleagues in the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, are reviewing the current distributions of priority waterfowl species relative to the scope of the WBPHS, suggestin
Science and Products
Evaluating the Design of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
Population Change and Abundance of Black Ducks and Mallards in Eastern North America
Implementing Cross Validation Approaches for Model Selection and Evaluating Goodness of Fit in Complex Hierarchical Models
Design and Analysis of Surveys for Estimation of Temporal and Spatial Change in Animal Populations
SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Analysis Results 1966 - 2022
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Analysis Results 1966 - 2021
Phenology effects in the North American Breeding Bird Survey
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Analysis Results 1966 - 2019
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Analysis Results 1966 - 2018
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Analysis Results 1966 - 2017
Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts
Estimating allowable take for an increasing bald eagle population in the United States
Maryland birds through time series— New!
American Woodcock singing-ground survey: Comparison of four models for trend in population size
Assessing the efficacy of protected and multiple-use lands for bird conservation in the U.S.
Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey
Decline of the North American avifauna
Consistency counts: Modeling the effects of a change in protocol on Breeding Bird Survey counts
Allowable take of black vultures in the eastern United States
Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors
On the reliability of N‐mixture models for count data
On the robustness of N‐mixture models
North American Breeding Bird Survey Results and Analysis
This website provides visualizations of population change for North American birds using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). The BBS is analyzed for a "core" area (contiguous United States and southern Canada, results available from 1966-present), and for an "expanded" survey area (including portions of Alaska and northern Canada with results from 1993-present).
Science and Products
Evaluating the Design of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
Population Change and Abundance of Black Ducks and Mallards in Eastern North America
Implementing Cross Validation Approaches for Model Selection and Evaluating Goodness of Fit in Complex Hierarchical Models
Design and Analysis of Surveys for Estimation of Temporal and Spatial Change in Animal Populations
SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Analysis Results 1966 - 2022
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Analysis Results 1966 - 2021
Phenology effects in the North American Breeding Bird Survey
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Analysis Results 1966 - 2019
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Analysis Results 1966 - 2018
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Analysis Results 1966 - 2017
Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts
Estimating allowable take for an increasing bald eagle population in the United States
Maryland birds through time series— New!
American Woodcock singing-ground survey: Comparison of four models for trend in population size
Assessing the efficacy of protected and multiple-use lands for bird conservation in the U.S.
Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey
Decline of the North American avifauna
Consistency counts: Modeling the effects of a change in protocol on Breeding Bird Survey counts
Allowable take of black vultures in the eastern United States
Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors
On the reliability of N‐mixture models for count data
On the robustness of N‐mixture models
North American Breeding Bird Survey Results and Analysis
This website provides visualizations of population change for North American birds using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). The BBS is analyzed for a "core" area (contiguous United States and southern Canada, results available from 1966-present), and for an "expanded" survey area (including portions of Alaska and northern Canada with results from 1993-present).