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Jory S Hecht, PhD

Dr. Jory Hecht is a statistical hydrologist with an interdisciplinary water resources and social-environmental systems modeling background.

In 2019, Jory came to the U.S. Geological Survey to work on the Flood Frequency for Hydraulic Design project funded by the Federal Highway Administration and has since become a member of numerous project teams in the Water Resources Mission Area, including the Integrated Water Availability Assessments (IWAAs) Trends and Drivers project (methods team lead) and National Drought Prediction project.  He is also one of the USGS representatives to the Science Subgroup of the Interagency Flood Resilience Working Group and co-coordinates the Hydrologic Extremes Working Group (HEWG) of the USGS Water Resource Mission Area’s Modeling Community of Practice. 

Prior to coming to the U.S. Geological Survey, Jory worked as a postdoctoral research associate at the University of Vermont, where he simulated the effects of climate change on cyanobacteria blooms in Lake Champlain.  He obtained his doctoral degree in Environmental and Water Resources Engineering in 2017, where he also was a fellow in the interdisciplinary Water Diplomacy program. He has also conducted international development work in numerous Latin American countries and southeast Asia. While most of his recent USGS work has been statistical, Jory also has a background in climate change planning, water-resources management, decision-support methods, and geography and enjoys opportunities to weave these other interests into his USGS work.  

 

Professional Experience

  • ​2019-present: Hydrologist, Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Water Resources Mission Area, U.S. Geological Survey 

  • 2017-2019: Postdoctoral Research Associate, Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont 

  • 2013-2016: Graduate Research Assistant, Tufts University

  • 2011-2013: NSF-IGERT Water Diplomacy Fellow, Tufts University

  • 2009-2011: Graduate Research Assistant, Illinois State Water Survey

  • 2009: Graduate Teaching Assistant, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

  • 2007-2008: Assistant Professional Scientist, Illinois State Water Survey

  • 2004-2006: Graduate Teaching Assistant, University of California - Santa Barbara

  • 2004: Administrative Coordinator, Central American Refugee Committee, Oakland

  • 2002-2003: NGO volunteer, San Mateo Ixtatán, Guatemala

Education and Certifications

  • Ph.D., Environmental and Water Resources Engineering, Tufts University, 2017 

  • M.Sc., Civil and Environmental Engineering - Hydrology and Hydraulics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2011 

  • M.A., Geography, University of California - Santa Barbara, 2007 

  • B.A., Geography, International Development and Social Change, Clark University, 2002 

Science and Products

Data for simulation experiments comparing nonstationary design-flood adjustments based on observed annual peak flows in the conterminous United States

This dataset contains files used in this Monte Carlo simulation study comparing the performance of five statistical models for adjusting design floods for current conditions at sites with known trends. These files include (i) the observed annual peak-flow series in the conterminous US used to inform ranges of known moments and trends used in the simulation experiment, (ii) the 3,000 combinations o
By
Water Resources Mission Area

U.S. Streamflow Drought During the Last Century: annual drought and low flow metrics, annual climate, and trends for the periods 1921-2020, 1951-2020 and 1981-2020

This dataset contains annual flow metrics quantifying drought and low streamflows for USGS GAGES-2 gages in the contiguous U.S. satisfying data completeness checks for the periods 1921-2020, 1951-2020, and 1981-2020. The dataset also contains annual climate variables from the USGS Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM). The dataset provides trend analysis outputs for annual drought and low flow metric
By
Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center

Adjusting design floods for urbanization across groundwater-dominated watersheds of Long Island, NY

The magnitude and variability of floods have increased for many nontidal streams on Long Island (LI), NY since the mid-20th century. One of the most densely populated regions of the United States, LI has experienced amplified floods in step with increases in impervious land cover, storm, and sanitary sewers that have accompanied urban development. To better understand the drivers of observed flood
By
Water Resources Mission Area, New York Water Science Center

A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we
By
Water Resources Mission Area

Simulation experiments comparing nonstationary design-flood adjustments based on observed annual peak flows in the conterminous United States

While nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NSFFA) methods have proliferated, few studies have rigorously compared them for modeling changes in both the central tendency and variability of annual peak-flow series, also known as the annual maximum series (AMS), in hydrologically diverse areas. Through Monte Carlo experiments, we appraise five methods for updating estimates of 10- and 100-year flo
By
Water Resources Mission Area

Going beyond low flows: Streamflow drought deficit and duration illuminate distinct spatiotemporal drought patterns and trends in the U.S. during the last century

Streamflow drought is a recurring challenge, and understanding spatiotemporal patterns of past droughts is needed to manage future water resources. We examined regional patterns in streamflow drought metrics and compared these metrics to low flow timing and magnitude using long-term daily records for 555 minimally disturbed watersheds. For each streamgage, we calculated streamflow drought duration
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, Nevada Water Science Center, New England Water Science Center, Oregon Water Science Center

The next frontier: Making research more reproducible

Science and engineering rest on the concept of reproducibility. An important question for any study is: are the results reproducible? Can the results be recreated independently by other researchers or professionals? Research results need to be independently reproduced and validated before they are accepted as fact or theory. Across numerous fields like psychology, computer systems, and water resou
By
Water Resources Mission Area

Non-USGS Publications**

Zia, A., A.W. Schroth, J.S. Hecht, P. Isles, P.J. Clemins, S. Turnbull, P. Bitterman, Y. Tsai, I.N. Mohammed, G. Bucini, E.M.B. Doran, C. Koliba, A. Bomblies, B. Beckage, J. Winter, E.C. Adair, D.M. Rizzo, W. Gibson, G. Pinder. 2022. Climate change-legacy phosphorus synergy hinders lake response to aggressive water policy targets. Earth’s Future, 10, e2021EF002234.
Hecht, J.S., A. Zia, P.J. Clemins, A.W. Schroth, J.M. Winter, P.D. Oikonomou, D.M. Rizzo. 2022. The sensitivity of cyanobacteria blooms to plausible changes in precipitation and temperature variability. Science of the Total Environment, 812 (151586).
Del Rossi, G.L., J.S. Hecht, A. Zia. 2021. A mixed-methods analysis for improving farmer participation in agri-environmental payment for ecosystem services in Vermont, USA. Ecosystem Services, 47 (101223).
Hecht, J.S., R.M. Vogel, R.A. McManamay, C.N. Kroll, J.M. Reed. 2020. Decision trees for incorporating hypothesis tests of hydrologic alteration into hydropower-ecosystem tradeoffs. J. Water Resources Planning and Management, 146(5), 04020017.
Hecht, J.S., R.M. Vogel. 2020. Updating urban design floods for changes in central tendency and variability using regression. Advances in Water Resources, 136, 103484.
Hecht, J.S., P.H. Kirshen. 2019. Minimizing urban floodplain management regrets under deeply uncertain climate change. J. Water Resources Planning and Management, 145(2), 004018096.
Hecht, J.S., G. Lacombe, M.E. Arias, T.D. Dang, T. Piman. 2019. Hydropower dams of the Mekong River basin: A review of their hydrological impacts. J. Hydrology, 568, 285-300.
Kirshen, P.H., S.A. Aytur, J.S. Hecht, A. Walker, D. Burdick, S. Jones, N. Fennessey, R. Bourdeau, L. Mather. 2018. Integrated urban water management applied to adaptation to climate change. Urban Climate, 24, 247-263.
Villarini, G., S. Taylor, C. Wobus, R.M. Vogel, J.S. Hecht, K. White, B. Baker, K. Gilroy, J.R. Olsen, D. Raff. 2018. Floods and nonstationary: a review. CWTS 2018-01, Civil Works Technical Series.
Aytur, S.A., J.S. Hecht, P.H. Kirshen. 2015. Aligning climate change adaptation planning with adaptive governance: Lessons from Exeter, NH. J. Contemporary Water Research & Education, 155(1), 83-98.
Hecht, J.S., X. Cai, J.W. Eheart. 2014. Operating rules for an off-stream blending reservoir to control nitrate in a municipal water system. J. Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(8), 04014015.

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

Science and Products

  • Data

    Data for simulation experiments comparing nonstationary design-flood adjustments based on observed annual peak flows in the conterminous United States

    This dataset contains files used in this Monte Carlo simulation study comparing the performance of five statistical models for adjusting design floods for current conditions at sites with known trends. These files include (i) the observed annual peak-flow series in the conterminous US used to inform ranges of known moments and trends used in the simulation experiment, (ii) the 3,000 combinations o
    By
    Water Resources Mission Area

    U.S. Streamflow Drought During the Last Century: annual drought and low flow metrics, annual climate, and trends for the periods 1921-2020, 1951-2020 and 1981-2020

    This dataset contains annual flow metrics quantifying drought and low streamflows for USGS GAGES-2 gages in the contiguous U.S. satisfying data completeness checks for the periods 1921-2020, 1951-2020, and 1981-2020. The dataset also contains annual climate variables from the USGS Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM). The dataset provides trend analysis outputs for annual drought and low flow metric
    By
    Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center
  • Publications

    Adjusting design floods for urbanization across groundwater-dominated watersheds of Long Island, NY

    The magnitude and variability of floods have increased for many nontidal streams on Long Island (LI), NY since the mid-20th century. One of the most densely populated regions of the United States, LI has experienced amplified floods in step with increases in impervious land cover, storm, and sanitary sewers that have accompanied urban development. To better understand the drivers of observed flood
    By
    Water Resources Mission Area, New York Water Science Center

    A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

    Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we
    By
    Water Resources Mission Area

    Simulation experiments comparing nonstationary design-flood adjustments based on observed annual peak flows in the conterminous United States

    While nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NSFFA) methods have proliferated, few studies have rigorously compared them for modeling changes in both the central tendency and variability of annual peak-flow series, also known as the annual maximum series (AMS), in hydrologically diverse areas. Through Monte Carlo experiments, we appraise five methods for updating estimates of 10- and 100-year flo
    By
    Water Resources Mission Area

    Going beyond low flows: Streamflow drought deficit and duration illuminate distinct spatiotemporal drought patterns and trends in the U.S. during the last century

    Streamflow drought is a recurring challenge, and understanding spatiotemporal patterns of past droughts is needed to manage future water resources. We examined regional patterns in streamflow drought metrics and compared these metrics to low flow timing and magnitude using long-term daily records for 555 minimally disturbed watersheds. For each streamgage, we calculated streamflow drought duration
    By
    Water Resources Mission Area, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, Nevada Water Science Center, New England Water Science Center, Oregon Water Science Center

    The next frontier: Making research more reproducible

    Science and engineering rest on the concept of reproducibility. An important question for any study is: are the results reproducible? Can the results be recreated independently by other researchers or professionals? Research results need to be independently reproduced and validated before they are accepted as fact or theory. Across numerous fields like psychology, computer systems, and water resou
    By
    Water Resources Mission Area

    Non-USGS Publications**

    Zia, A., A.W. Schroth, J.S. Hecht, P. Isles, P.J. Clemins, S. Turnbull, P. Bitterman, Y. Tsai, I.N. Mohammed, G. Bucini, E.M.B. Doran, C. Koliba, A. Bomblies, B. Beckage, J. Winter, E.C. Adair, D.M. Rizzo, W. Gibson, G. Pinder. 2022. Climate change-legacy phosphorus synergy hinders lake response to aggressive water policy targets. Earth’s Future, 10, e2021EF002234.
    Hecht, J.S., A. Zia, P.J. Clemins, A.W. Schroth, J.M. Winter, P.D. Oikonomou, D.M. Rizzo. 2022. The sensitivity of cyanobacteria blooms to plausible changes in precipitation and temperature variability. Science of the Total Environment, 812 (151586).
    Del Rossi, G.L., J.S. Hecht, A. Zia. 2021. A mixed-methods analysis for improving farmer participation in agri-environmental payment for ecosystem services in Vermont, USA. Ecosystem Services, 47 (101223).
    Hecht, J.S., R.M. Vogel, R.A. McManamay, C.N. Kroll, J.M. Reed. 2020. Decision trees for incorporating hypothesis tests of hydrologic alteration into hydropower-ecosystem tradeoffs. J. Water Resources Planning and Management, 146(5), 04020017.
    Hecht, J.S., R.M. Vogel. 2020. Updating urban design floods for changes in central tendency and variability using regression. Advances in Water Resources, 136, 103484.
    Hecht, J.S., P.H. Kirshen. 2019. Minimizing urban floodplain management regrets under deeply uncertain climate change. J. Water Resources Planning and Management, 145(2), 004018096.
    Hecht, J.S., G. Lacombe, M.E. Arias, T.D. Dang, T. Piman. 2019. Hydropower dams of the Mekong River basin: A review of their hydrological impacts. J. Hydrology, 568, 285-300.
    Kirshen, P.H., S.A. Aytur, J.S. Hecht, A. Walker, D. Burdick, S. Jones, N. Fennessey, R. Bourdeau, L. Mather. 2018. Integrated urban water management applied to adaptation to climate change. Urban Climate, 24, 247-263.
    Villarini, G., S. Taylor, C. Wobus, R.M. Vogel, J.S. Hecht, K. White, B. Baker, K. Gilroy, J.R. Olsen, D. Raff. 2018. Floods and nonstationary: a review. CWTS 2018-01, Civil Works Technical Series.
    Aytur, S.A., J.S. Hecht, P.H. Kirshen. 2015. Aligning climate change adaptation planning with adaptive governance: Lessons from Exeter, NH. J. Contemporary Water Research & Education, 155(1), 83-98.
    Hecht, J.S., X. Cai, J.W. Eheart. 2014. Operating rules for an off-stream blending reservoir to control nitrate in a municipal water system. J. Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(8), 04014015.

    **Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.