Kai Parker (Former Employee)
Science and Products
Coastal Climate Impacts
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for King County, Washington CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for King County, Washington
This data release consists of flood hazard maps from compound coastal hazards--specifically sea-level rise (SLR), projected coastal storms, and streamflow. Products include projected flood depths, flood extents including uncertainties, water elevations, velocity hazards, and flood duration. These are generated using a suite of numerical models driven by outputs from Global Climate Models...
CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for Pierce County, Washington CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for Pierce County, Washington
This data release consists of flood hazard maps from compound coastal hazards--specifically sea-level rise (SLR), projected coastal storms, and streamflow. Products include projected flood depths, flood extents including uncertainties, water elevations, velocity hazards, and flood duration. These are generated using a suite of numerical models driven by outputs from Global Climate Models...
Modeled nearshore wave parameters along the Columbia River littoral cell, Washington and Oregon, 2010-2023 Modeled nearshore wave parameters along the Columbia River littoral cell, Washington and Oregon, 2010-2023
Model hindcasts were performed with a spectral wave model to quantify nearshore wave parameters along the Columbia River littoral cell, Oregon and Washington. The spectral wave model SWAN was used to simulate nearshore wave dynamics at 1-hr intervals along the coast between 2014 and 2023. A second hindcast simulated wave dynamics between 2010 and 2011. This data release describes the...
Model input and projections of compound floodwater depths for the lower Nooksack River and delta, western Washington State Model input and projections of compound floodwater depths for the lower Nooksack River and delta, western Washington State
Model input and computed flood depths associated with the combined influence of sea level position, tides, storm surge, and streamflow under existing conditions and projected future higher sea level and peak stream runoff are provided for the lower (Reach 1) of the Nooksack River and delta in Whatcom County, western Washington State. The flood-depth projection data are provided in a...
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of...
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are...
Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024) Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024)
Hourly time-series of waves at the 20m, 50m, and 100m isobaths, along all U.S. open coasts for the historical (1979-2014) and projected (2020-2050) period: Those data (estimates of historical and long-term future conditions) were developed by running the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) WaveWatch3 wave model forced with winds and sea ice extents from four separate...
Wetter winters, drier summers: Quantifying the change in hydrological response around the Puget Sound area using the wflow_sbm hydrological model and CMIP6 projections Wetter winters, drier summers: Quantifying the change in hydrological response around the Puget Sound area using the wflow_sbm hydrological model and CMIP6 projections
Climate change is expected to impact hydrological regimes worldwide, including the Pacific Northwest of the United States. This study investigates how climate change will affect river discharge in the Puget Sound region of the State of Washington, with a focus on King and Pierce Counties. We simulated river discharge under historical and future conditions using the physically based...
Authors
Joost Buitink, Brendan Dalmijn, Kai Alexander Parker, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Eric E. Grossman
Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic
Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Kevin M. Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C Engelstad, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert T. McCall, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo, Kees Nederhoff, Andrea C. O'Neill, Kai Alexander Parker, Manoochehr Shirzaei, Leonard O. Ohenhen, Peter W Swarzenski, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Killian Vos, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Jamie Jones
Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise
Coastal change is a complex combination of multi-scale processes (e.g., wave-driven cross-shore and longshore transport; dune, bluff, and cliff erosion; overwash; fluvial and inlet sediment supply; and sea-level-driven recession). Historical sea-level-driven coastal recession on open ocean coasts is often outpaced by wave-driven change. However, future sea-level-driven coastal recession...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos, Kristen D. Splinter, Kai Alexander Parker, Andrea C. O'Neill, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards
Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR...
Authors
Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Li H. Erikson, Kai Alexander Parker, Kees Nederhoff, Kevin M. Befus, Manoochehr Shirzaei
Climate controls on longshore sediment transport and coastal morphology adjacent to engineered inlets Climate controls on longshore sediment transport and coastal morphology adjacent to engineered inlets
Coastal jetties are commonly used throughout the world to stabilize channels and improve navigation through inlets. These engineered structures form artificial boundaries to littoral cells by reducing wave-driven longshore sediment transport across inlet entrances. Consequently, beaches adjacent to engineered inlets are subject to large gradients in longshore transport rates and are...
Authors
Andrew W. Stevens, Peter R Ruggiero, Kai Alexander Parker, Sean Vitousek, Guy Gelfenbaum, George M Kaminsky
Tropical or extratropical cyclones: What drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast? Tropical or extratropical cyclones: What drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?
Subtropical coastlines are impacted by both tropical and extratropical cyclones. While both may lead to substantial damage to coastal communities, it is difficult to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to coastal flooding relative to that of extratropical cyclones. We conduct a large-scale flood hazard and impact assessment across the subtropical Southeast Atlantic Coast of...
Authors
Kees Nederhoff, Tim Leijnse, Kai Alexander Parker, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Andrea O’Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Robert T. McCall, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Amy C. Foxgrover, Wouter Klessens, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Chris Massey
Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast
A 38-year hindcast water level product is developed for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water level modelling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and...
Authors
Kai Alexander Parker, Li H. Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Patrick L. Barnard, Sanne Muis
Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018) Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018)
In this work, we show that large-scale compound flood models developed for North and South Carolina, USA, can skillfully simulate multiple drivers of coastal flooding as confirmed by measurements collected during Hurricane Florence (2018). Besides the accuracy of representing observed water levels, the importance of individual processes was investigated. We demonstrate that across the...
Authors
Tim Leijnse, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Kai Alexander Parker, Maarten van Ormondt, Li H. Erikson, Robert T. McCall, Ap van Dongeren, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard
Science and Products
Coastal Climate Impacts
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for King County, Washington CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for King County, Washington
This data release consists of flood hazard maps from compound coastal hazards--specifically sea-level rise (SLR), projected coastal storms, and streamflow. Products include projected flood depths, flood extents including uncertainties, water elevations, velocity hazards, and flood duration. These are generated using a suite of numerical models driven by outputs from Global Climate Models...
CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for Pierce County, Washington CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for Pierce County, Washington
This data release consists of flood hazard maps from compound coastal hazards--specifically sea-level rise (SLR), projected coastal storms, and streamflow. Products include projected flood depths, flood extents including uncertainties, water elevations, velocity hazards, and flood duration. These are generated using a suite of numerical models driven by outputs from Global Climate Models...
Modeled nearshore wave parameters along the Columbia River littoral cell, Washington and Oregon, 2010-2023 Modeled nearshore wave parameters along the Columbia River littoral cell, Washington and Oregon, 2010-2023
Model hindcasts were performed with a spectral wave model to quantify nearshore wave parameters along the Columbia River littoral cell, Oregon and Washington. The spectral wave model SWAN was used to simulate nearshore wave dynamics at 1-hr intervals along the coast between 2014 and 2023. A second hindcast simulated wave dynamics between 2010 and 2011. This data release describes the...
Model input and projections of compound floodwater depths for the lower Nooksack River and delta, western Washington State Model input and projections of compound floodwater depths for the lower Nooksack River and delta, western Washington State
Model input and computed flood depths associated with the combined influence of sea level position, tides, storm surge, and streamflow under existing conditions and projected future higher sea level and peak stream runoff are provided for the lower (Reach 1) of the Nooksack River and delta in Whatcom County, western Washington State. The flood-depth projection data are provided in a...
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of...
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are...
Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024) Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024)
Hourly time-series of waves at the 20m, 50m, and 100m isobaths, along all U.S. open coasts for the historical (1979-2014) and projected (2020-2050) period: Those data (estimates of historical and long-term future conditions) were developed by running the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) WaveWatch3 wave model forced with winds and sea ice extents from four separate...
Wetter winters, drier summers: Quantifying the change in hydrological response around the Puget Sound area using the wflow_sbm hydrological model and CMIP6 projections Wetter winters, drier summers: Quantifying the change in hydrological response around the Puget Sound area using the wflow_sbm hydrological model and CMIP6 projections
Climate change is expected to impact hydrological regimes worldwide, including the Pacific Northwest of the United States. This study investigates how climate change will affect river discharge in the Puget Sound region of the State of Washington, with a focus on King and Pierce Counties. We simulated river discharge under historical and future conditions using the physically based...
Authors
Joost Buitink, Brendan Dalmijn, Kai Alexander Parker, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Eric E. Grossman
Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic
Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Kevin M. Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C Engelstad, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert T. McCall, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo, Kees Nederhoff, Andrea C. O'Neill, Kai Alexander Parker, Manoochehr Shirzaei, Leonard O. Ohenhen, Peter W Swarzenski, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Killian Vos, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Jamie Jones
Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise
Coastal change is a complex combination of multi-scale processes (e.g., wave-driven cross-shore and longshore transport; dune, bluff, and cliff erosion; overwash; fluvial and inlet sediment supply; and sea-level-driven recession). Historical sea-level-driven coastal recession on open ocean coasts is often outpaced by wave-driven change. However, future sea-level-driven coastal recession...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos, Kristen D. Splinter, Kai Alexander Parker, Andrea C. O'Neill, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards
Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR...
Authors
Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Li H. Erikson, Kai Alexander Parker, Kees Nederhoff, Kevin M. Befus, Manoochehr Shirzaei
Climate controls on longshore sediment transport and coastal morphology adjacent to engineered inlets Climate controls on longshore sediment transport and coastal morphology adjacent to engineered inlets
Coastal jetties are commonly used throughout the world to stabilize channels and improve navigation through inlets. These engineered structures form artificial boundaries to littoral cells by reducing wave-driven longshore sediment transport across inlet entrances. Consequently, beaches adjacent to engineered inlets are subject to large gradients in longshore transport rates and are...
Authors
Andrew W. Stevens, Peter R Ruggiero, Kai Alexander Parker, Sean Vitousek, Guy Gelfenbaum, George M Kaminsky
Tropical or extratropical cyclones: What drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast? Tropical or extratropical cyclones: What drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?
Subtropical coastlines are impacted by both tropical and extratropical cyclones. While both may lead to substantial damage to coastal communities, it is difficult to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to coastal flooding relative to that of extratropical cyclones. We conduct a large-scale flood hazard and impact assessment across the subtropical Southeast Atlantic Coast of...
Authors
Kees Nederhoff, Tim Leijnse, Kai Alexander Parker, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Andrea O’Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Robert T. McCall, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Amy C. Foxgrover, Wouter Klessens, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Chris Massey
Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast
A 38-year hindcast water level product is developed for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water level modelling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and...
Authors
Kai Alexander Parker, Li H. Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Patrick L. Barnard, Sanne Muis
Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018) Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018)
In this work, we show that large-scale compound flood models developed for North and South Carolina, USA, can skillfully simulate multiple drivers of coastal flooding as confirmed by measurements collected during Hurricane Florence (2018). Besides the accuracy of representing observed water levels, the importance of individual processes was investigated. We demonstrate that across the...
Authors
Tim Leijnse, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Kai Alexander Parker, Maarten van Ormondt, Li H. Erikson, Robert T. McCall, Ap van Dongeren, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard