Tom Parsons
I conduct research aimed at improving our ability to forecast hazardous events like earthquakes and tsunamis. Specifically, I study how earthquakes trigger others, how crustal movements cause earthquake stresses, and how to convert geologic observations of earthquake and tsunami processes into quantitative forecasts of use to planners, insurers, and builders.
Professional Experience
1994-Present: Research Geophysicist, U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
1992-1994: National Research Council Postdoctoral Fellow
Education and Certifications
1992 – Ph.D. in Geophysics, Stanford University
1990 – M.S. in Geophysics, Stanford University
1988 – B.S. in Applied Geophysics, UCLA
Affiliations and Memberships*
Editor, AGU Advances, 2019-present
Editor in Chief, Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth, 2009-2015
Editor in Chief, Tectonophysics, 2007-2009
Editorial Board, Tectonophysics, 2005-2007
Editorial Board, Geology, 1995-2000, 2005-2008
Member: Executive Committee, Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2005-present
Member: SCEC Planning Committee, 2007-2009
Honors and Awards
Senior Scientist (ST): 1/15
Fellow American Geophysical Union, Elected 1/12
Fulbright Mutual Educational Exchange Grant USA-Greece: 2007-2008
Alumni Pillar of Achievement: Golden West College Outstanding Alumni Award (10/07)
Fellow Geological Society of America, Elected 10/97
Shoemaker Communication Award (10/00)
National Association of Government Communicators Gold Screen Award (12/00)
National Research Council Post-Doctoral Fellow (8/92)
Science and Products
Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California
The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)
Distribution of tsunami interevent times
Stress changes from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin
Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California
Vertical tectonic deformation associated with the San Andreas fault zone offshore of San Francisco, California
Earthquake recurrence on the south Hayward fault is most consistent with a time dependent, renewal process
Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region
We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Lo
Persistent earthquake clusters and gaps from slip on irregular faults
Why the sacramento delta area differs from other parts of the great valley: numerical modeling of thermal structure and thermal subsidence of forearc basins
Forecast experiment: do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes?
M ≥ 7.0 earthquake recurrence on the San Andreas fault from a stress renewal model
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Science and Products
Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California
The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)
Distribution of tsunami interevent times
Stress changes from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin
Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California
Vertical tectonic deformation associated with the San Andreas fault zone offshore of San Francisco, California
Earthquake recurrence on the south Hayward fault is most consistent with a time dependent, renewal process
Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region
We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Lo
Persistent earthquake clusters and gaps from slip on irregular faults
Why the sacramento delta area differs from other parts of the great valley: numerical modeling of thermal structure and thermal subsidence of forearc basins
Forecast experiment: do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes?
M ≥ 7.0 earthquake recurrence on the San Andreas fault from a stress renewal model
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government