Toni Lyn Morelli is a Research Ecologist at the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, where she uses field studies, ecological modeling, and genetics to help resource managers conserve species in the face of climate and land use change. Current projects include studying climate change refugia, the effects of snow loss on montane & Arctic species, and decision analysis and copr
Toni Lyn grew up near Detroit and received a B.S. in Zoology from Michigan State University. For her Ph.D. at Stony Brook University on Long Island, NY, she studied lemur behavior, ecology, and genetics in Madagascar. After her Ph.D., Toni Lyn Morelli worked as a postdoctoral fellow at UC Berkeley to understand how climate change had affected small mammals and montane meadows over the last century. She has also worked for the U.S. Forest Service, both as a research ecologist at the Pacific Southwest Research Station and as the Technical Advisor to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Toni Lyn uses translational ecology, species distribution modeling, occupancy modeling, geospatial analysis, population and landscape genetics techniques, and decision analysis to facilitate natural resource management and habitat and species conservation in the face of climate and land use change. Current projects include studying the impacts of climate change in boreal ecosystems, including carnivore and hare work from my Ph.D. student Alexej Siren; helping the National Park Service update its taxonomy and analyze citizen science data; organizing a Regional Effort on Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management; and a continued focus on operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Stony Brook University
B.S. in Zoology, Michigan State University
Science and Products
Vernal Pool Inundation Models
This website provides an application for exploring modeling results from a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project titled Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. The purpose of this project was to improve understanding of the factors that control inundation patterns in vernal pools of the northeastern United States, so as to identify pools that might function as...
A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy
Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing threat to ac
A Synthesis of Climate Change Refugia Science and Management Actions to Inform Climate Adaptation in the Southwest
The impacts of climate change are widespread and accelerating. It is daunting for resource managers to determine how to use increasingly limited staff time and funding to conserve species and ecosystems. The Refugia Research Coalition is a national framework that brings together researchers and managers to identify and develop conservation strategies for “climate change refugia”, areas that remain...
Workflows to Support Integrated Predictive Science Capacity: Forecasting Invasive Species for Natural Resource Planning and Risk Assessment
Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. To address this need, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) created a suite of “Pheno Forecast” ma...
Increasing the Resilience and Resistance of Climate-Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems
The northeastern U.S. is highly exposed to climate change; in fact, the rate of change is higher than most places on earth (Karmalkar and Bradley 2017). The forests of the Northeast CASC region, and the wildlife that inhabit them, are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In particular, the boreal forests, a biome that reaches from Alaska to the Northeast, and the northern hardwoods
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and not
Automating the use of citizen scientists’ biodiversity surveys in iNaturalist to facilitate early detection of species’ responses to climate change
A BioBlitz is a field survey method for finding and documenting as many species as possible in a specific area over a short period. The National Park Service and National Geographic Society hosted the largest BioBlitz survey ever in 2016; people in more than 120 national parks used the iNaturalist app on mobile devices to document organisms they observed. Resulting records have Global Positioning
Webinar: How to Prioritize Key Areas for Conservation Efforts in a Changing Climate: A Look at “Climate Refugia”
View this webinar to learn more about climate change refugia.
Integrating climate change into the state wildlife action plans
Fish and Wildlife agencies across the United States are currently revising their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs). These documents are important planning documents over 10 year timescales. SWAP Coordinators have been challenged to incorporate climate change impacts and species responses as part of their strategic approaches to managing vulnerable fish and wildlife resources. The Northeast Clima
Evaluation of Downscaled Climate Modeling Techniques for the Northeast U.S.: A Case Study of Maple Syrup Production
Downscaling is the process of making a coarse-scale global climate model into a finer resolution in order to capture some of the localized detail that the coarse global models cannot resolve. There are two general approaches of downscaling: dynamical and statistical. Within those, many dynamical models have been developed by different institutions, and there are a number of statistical algorithms
Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)
This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly relevant to th
Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple
Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the Northeast and Midwest. Overall demand for maple syrup has been rapidly rising as more people appreciate this natural sweetener. Yet because t
Science and Products
- Publications
- Science
Vernal Pool Inundation Models
This website provides an application for exploring modeling results from a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project titled Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. The purpose of this project was to improve understanding of the factors that control inundation patterns in vernal pools of the northeastern United States, so as to identify pools that might function as...A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy
Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing threat to acA Synthesis of Climate Change Refugia Science and Management Actions to Inform Climate Adaptation in the Southwest
The impacts of climate change are widespread and accelerating. It is daunting for resource managers to determine how to use increasingly limited staff time and funding to conserve species and ecosystems. The Refugia Research Coalition is a national framework that brings together researchers and managers to identify and develop conservation strategies for “climate change refugia”, areas that remain...Workflows to Support Integrated Predictive Science Capacity: Forecasting Invasive Species for Natural Resource Planning and Risk Assessment
Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. To address this need, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) created a suite of “Pheno Forecast” ma...Increasing the Resilience and Resistance of Climate-Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems
The northeastern U.S. is highly exposed to climate change; in fact, the rate of change is higher than most places on earth (Karmalkar and Bradley 2017). The forests of the Northeast CASC region, and the wildlife that inhabit them, are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In particular, the boreal forests, a biome that reaches from Alaska to the Northeast, and the northern hardwoodsUnderstanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and notAutomating the use of citizen scientists’ biodiversity surveys in iNaturalist to facilitate early detection of species’ responses to climate change
A BioBlitz is a field survey method for finding and documenting as many species as possible in a specific area over a short period. The National Park Service and National Geographic Society hosted the largest BioBlitz survey ever in 2016; people in more than 120 national parks used the iNaturalist app on mobile devices to document organisms they observed. Resulting records have Global PositioningWebinar: How to Prioritize Key Areas for Conservation Efforts in a Changing Climate: A Look at “Climate Refugia”
View this webinar to learn more about climate change refugia.Integrating climate change into the state wildlife action plans
Fish and Wildlife agencies across the United States are currently revising their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs). These documents are important planning documents over 10 year timescales. SWAP Coordinators have been challenged to incorporate climate change impacts and species responses as part of their strategic approaches to managing vulnerable fish and wildlife resources. The Northeast ClimaEvaluation of Downscaled Climate Modeling Techniques for the Northeast U.S.: A Case Study of Maple Syrup Production
Downscaling is the process of making a coarse-scale global climate model into a finer resolution in order to capture some of the localized detail that the coarse global models cannot resolve. There are two general approaches of downscaling: dynamical and statistical. Within those, many dynamical models have been developed by different institutions, and there are a number of statistical algorithmsClimate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)
This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly relevant to thClimate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple
Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the Northeast and Midwest. Overall demand for maple syrup has been rapidly rising as more people appreciate this natural sweetener. Yet because t - Data
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