Climate refugia are places that may be buffered from and likely won’t change as much under climate change. Focusing research on these areas may offer resource managers more conservation and management options.
Toni Lyn Morelli, Ph.D.
Toni Lyn Morelli is a Research Ecologist at the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, where she uses field studies, ecological modeling, genetics, and translational ecology to help resource managers conserve species in the face of global change.
Toni Lyn grew up near Detroit and received a B.S. in Zoology from Michigan State University. For her Ph.D. at Stony Brook University, she studied lemur behavior, ecology, and genetics in Madagascar. After her Ph.D., Toni Lyn worked as a postdoctoral fellow at UC Berkeley to understand how climate change had affected small mammals and montane meadows over the last century. She has also worked for the U.S. Forest Service, both as a research ecologist at the Pacific Southwest Research Station and as the Technical Advisor to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Toni Lyn uses translational ecology, species distribution modeling, occupancy modeling, geospatial analysis, population and landscape genetics techniques, and decision analysis to facilitate natural resource management and habitat and species conservation in the face of climate and land use change and invasive species. Current projects include studying the impacts of climate change in boreal ecosystems; helping the National Park Service update its taxonomy and analyze citizen science data; organizing a continent-wide network on Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management; and a continued focus on operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia.
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 20
Climate Adaptation in Northeastern Forests to Support Birds of Conservation Concern and Ecosystem Services
Climate change, invasive species, and diseases are threatening Northeastern forests, with consequences for bird populations and carbon storage. Researchers supported by this Northeast CASC project will evaluate whether already-implemented climate adaptation strategies in the region have been effective at protecting bird habitat and what the implications of carbon storage have been. The...
Managing Ecological Transformation to Enhance Carbon Storage and Biodiversity
In the North Central region, invasive species and climate change are intricately linked to changing fire regimes, and together, these drivers can have pronounced effects on ecosystems. When fires burn too hot or too frequently, they can prevent slow-growing native plants from regrowing. When this happens, the landscape can transform into a new type of ecosystem, such as a forest becoming...
Restoration Based on Cost-Benefit Optimization: A Grasslands Pilot Study
Ecological restoration is essential to meeting global biodiversity conservation goals. Given limited conservation budgets, deciding where to restore habitat is a key challenge for the coming decade. We developed a spatially explicit framework to optimize ecological restoration site selection by integrating land use history, species distributions, and economic costs. We illustrate this...
Climate-Adaptive Population Supplementation (CAPS) to Enhance Fishery and Forestry Outcomes
Society makes substantial investments in federal, Tribal, state, and private programs to supplement populations of valued species such as stocking fish, planting trees, rebuilding oyster reefs, and restoring prairies. These important efforts require long-term commitment, but climate change is making environmental conditions less predictable and more challenging to navigate. Selection of...
A Regional Synthesis of Climate Data to Inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S.
The State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) are proactive planning documents, known as “comprehensive wildlife conservation strategies.” SWAPs assess the health of each state’s wildlife and habitats, identify current management and conservation challenges, and outline needed actions to conserve natural resources over the long term. SWAPs are revised every 10 years, with the last revision in...
Vernal Pool Inundation Models
This website provides an application for exploring modeling results from a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project titled Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. The purpose of this project was to improve understanding of the factors that control inundation patterns in vernal pools of the northeastern United States, so as to identify pools that might function as...
A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy
Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing...
A Synthesis of Climate Change Refugia Science and Management Actions to Inform Climate Adaptation in the Southwest
The impacts of climate change are widespread and accelerating. It is daunting for resource managers to determine how to use increasingly limited staff time and funding to conserve species and ecosystems. The Refugia Research Coalition is a national framework that brings together researchers and managers to identify and develop conservation strategies for “climate change refugia”, areas...
Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management
Overview Invasive species and climate change represent two of the five major global change threats to ecosystems. An emerging initiative of the Northeast Climate Science Center aims to develop management-relevant research to improve invasive species management in the face of climate change. Through working groups, information sharing and targeted research, this project addresses the
Effects of Climate, Disturbance, and Management on the Growth and Dynamics of Temperate and Sub-Boreal Forest Ecosystems within the Lake States and New England
Overview This project is using a combination of long-term data records and recently established large-scale adaptive management studies in managed forests across the Lake States, New England, Intermountain West, and Black Hills to identify forest management strategies and forest conditions that confer the greatest levels of resistance and resilience to past and emerging stressors and...
Workflows to Support Integrated Predictive Science Capacity: Forecasting Invasive Species for Natural Resource Planning and Risk Assessment
Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. To address this need, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) created a suite of “Pheno...
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some...
Climate Refugia: A Buffer from Climate Change
Climate refugia are places that may be buffered from and likely won’t change as much under climate change. Focusing research on these areas may offer resource managers more conservation and management options.
Climate Refugia: A Buffer from Climate Change (AD)
Climate Refugia: A Buffer from Climate Change (AD)Climate refugia are places that may be buffered from and likely won’t change as much under climate change. Focusing research on these areas may offer resource managers more conservation and management options.
Climate Refugia: A Buffer from Climate Change (AD)
Climate Refugia: A Buffer from Climate Change (AD)Climate refugia are places that may be buffered from and likely won’t change as much under climate change. Focusing research on these areas may offer resource managers more conservation and management options.
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 20
Climate Adaptation in Northeastern Forests to Support Birds of Conservation Concern and Ecosystem Services
Climate change, invasive species, and diseases are threatening Northeastern forests, with consequences for bird populations and carbon storage. Researchers supported by this Northeast CASC project will evaluate whether already-implemented climate adaptation strategies in the region have been effective at protecting bird habitat and what the implications of carbon storage have been. The...
Managing Ecological Transformation to Enhance Carbon Storage and Biodiversity
In the North Central region, invasive species and climate change are intricately linked to changing fire regimes, and together, these drivers can have pronounced effects on ecosystems. When fires burn too hot or too frequently, they can prevent slow-growing native plants from regrowing. When this happens, the landscape can transform into a new type of ecosystem, such as a forest becoming...
Restoration Based on Cost-Benefit Optimization: A Grasslands Pilot Study
Ecological restoration is essential to meeting global biodiversity conservation goals. Given limited conservation budgets, deciding where to restore habitat is a key challenge for the coming decade. We developed a spatially explicit framework to optimize ecological restoration site selection by integrating land use history, species distributions, and economic costs. We illustrate this...
Climate-Adaptive Population Supplementation (CAPS) to Enhance Fishery and Forestry Outcomes
Society makes substantial investments in federal, Tribal, state, and private programs to supplement populations of valued species such as stocking fish, planting trees, rebuilding oyster reefs, and restoring prairies. These important efforts require long-term commitment, but climate change is making environmental conditions less predictable and more challenging to navigate. Selection of...
A Regional Synthesis of Climate Data to Inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S.
The State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) are proactive planning documents, known as “comprehensive wildlife conservation strategies.” SWAPs assess the health of each state’s wildlife and habitats, identify current management and conservation challenges, and outline needed actions to conserve natural resources over the long term. SWAPs are revised every 10 years, with the last revision in...
Vernal Pool Inundation Models
This website provides an application for exploring modeling results from a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project titled Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. The purpose of this project was to improve understanding of the factors that control inundation patterns in vernal pools of the northeastern United States, so as to identify pools that might function as...
A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy
Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing...
A Synthesis of Climate Change Refugia Science and Management Actions to Inform Climate Adaptation in the Southwest
The impacts of climate change are widespread and accelerating. It is daunting for resource managers to determine how to use increasingly limited staff time and funding to conserve species and ecosystems. The Refugia Research Coalition is a national framework that brings together researchers and managers to identify and develop conservation strategies for “climate change refugia”, areas...
Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management
Overview Invasive species and climate change represent two of the five major global change threats to ecosystems. An emerging initiative of the Northeast Climate Science Center aims to develop management-relevant research to improve invasive species management in the face of climate change. Through working groups, information sharing and targeted research, this project addresses the
Effects of Climate, Disturbance, and Management on the Growth and Dynamics of Temperate and Sub-Boreal Forest Ecosystems within the Lake States and New England
Overview This project is using a combination of long-term data records and recently established large-scale adaptive management studies in managed forests across the Lake States, New England, Intermountain West, and Black Hills to identify forest management strategies and forest conditions that confer the greatest levels of resistance and resilience to past and emerging stressors and...
Workflows to Support Integrated Predictive Science Capacity: Forecasting Invasive Species for Natural Resource Planning and Risk Assessment
Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. To address this need, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) created a suite of “Pheno...
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some...
Climate Refugia: A Buffer from Climate Change
Climate refugia are places that may be buffered from and likely won’t change as much under climate change. Focusing research on these areas may offer resource managers more conservation and management options.
Climate refugia are places that may be buffered from and likely won’t change as much under climate change. Focusing research on these areas may offer resource managers more conservation and management options.
Climate Refugia: A Buffer from Climate Change (AD)
Climate Refugia: A Buffer from Climate Change (AD)Climate refugia are places that may be buffered from and likely won’t change as much under climate change. Focusing research on these areas may offer resource managers more conservation and management options.
Climate Refugia: A Buffer from Climate Change (AD)
Climate Refugia: A Buffer from Climate Change (AD)Climate refugia are places that may be buffered from and likely won’t change as much under climate change. Focusing research on these areas may offer resource managers more conservation and management options.
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government