Toni Lyn Morelli, Ph.D.
Toni Lyn Morelli is a Research Ecologist at the NE Climate Science Center, where she uses field studies, ecological modeling, and genetics to help resource managers conserve species in the face of climate and land use change. Current projects include studying climate change refugia, the effects of snow loss on montane & Arctic species, and decision analysis and coproduction for climate adaptation.
Biography
Toni Lyn grew up near Detroit and received a B.S. in Zoology from Michigan State University. For her Ph.D. at Stony Brook University on Long Island, NY, she studied lemur behavior, ecology, and genetics in Madagascar. After her Ph.D., Toni Lyn Morelli worked as a postdoctoral fellow at UC Berkeley to understand how climate change had affected small mammals and montane meadows over the last century. She has also worked for the U.S. Forest Service, both as a research ecologist at the Pacific Southwest Research Station and as the Technical Advisor to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Toni Lyn uses translational ecology, species distribution modeling, occupancy modeling, geospatial analysis, population and landscape genetics techniques, and decision analysis to facilitate natural resource management and habitat and species conservation in the face of climate and land use change. Current projects include studying the impacts of climate change in boreal ecosystems, including carnivore and hare work from my Ph.D. student Alexej Siren; helping the National Park Service update its taxonomy and analyze citizen science data; organizing a Regional Effort on Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management; and a continued focus on operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia.
Science and Products
Increasing the Resilience and Resistance of Climate-Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems
This project has two phases: Phase I: Determining causes of vulnerability The NE CASC has as part of its mission to conduct stakeholder-driven research to understand climate Impacts on freshwater resources and land-use change as well as ecosystem vulnerability and species response to climate variability and change. In the face of increasing temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and...
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and...
Automating the use of citizen scientists’ biodiversity surveys in iNaturalist to facilitate early detection of species’ responses to climate change
A BioBlitz is a field survey method for finding and documenting as many species as possible in a specific area over a short period. The National Park Service and National Geographic Society hosted the largest BioBlitz survey ever in 2016; people in more than 120 national parks used the iNaturalist app on mobile devices to document organisms they observed. Resulting records have Global...
Webinar: How to Prioritize Key Areas for Conservation Efforts in a Changing Climate: A Look at “Climate Refugia”
View this webinar to learn more about climate change refugia.
Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)
This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly relevant...
Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple
Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the Northeast and Midwest. Overall demand for maple syrup has been rapidly rising as more people appreciate this natural sweetener. Yet...
Evaluation of Downscaled Climate Modeling Techniques for the Northeast U.S.: A Case Study of Maple Syrup Production
Downscaling is the process of making a coarse-scale global climate model into a finer resolution in order to capture some of the localized detail that the coarse global models cannot resolve. There are two general approaches of downscaling: dynamical and statistical. Within those, many dynamical models have been developed by different institutions, and there are a number of statistical...
Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity
Biodiversity—the variety of life on Earth—provides vital services that support and improve human health and well-being. Ecosystems, which are composed of living things that interact with the physical environment, provide numerous essential benefits to people. These benefits, termed ecosystem services, encompass four primary functions: provisioning...
Reidmiller, D. R.; Avery, C. W.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Lewis, K. L. M.; Maycock, T. K.; Stewart, B. C.; Lipton, Douglas; Rubenstein, Madeleine A.; Weiskopf, Sarah R.; Carter, Shawn L.; Peterson, Jay; Crozier, Lisa; Fogarty, Michael; Gaichas, Sarah; Hyde, Kimberly J. W.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Morisette, Jeffrey; Moustahfid, Hassan; Munoz, Roldan; Poudel, Rajendra; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Stock, Charles; Thompson, Laura; Waples, Robin S.; Weltzin, Jake F. Navigating translational ecology: Creating opportunities for scientist participation
Interest in translational ecology (TE) – a research approach that yields useful scientific outcomes through ongoing collaboration between scientists and stakeholders – is growing among both of these groups. Translational ecology brings together participants from different cultures and with different professional incentives. We address ways to...
Hallett, Lauren M.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Gerber, Leah R.; Moritz, Max A.; Schwartz, Mark W.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Tank, Jennifer L.; Williamson, Matthew A.; Woodhouse, Connie A. Developing a translational ecology workforce
We define a translational ecologist as a professional ecologist with diverse disciplinary expertise and skill sets, as well as a suitable personal disposition, who engages across social, professional, and disciplinary boundaries to partner with decision makers to achieve practical environmental solutions. Becoming a translational ecologist...
Schwartz, Mark W.; Hiers, J. Kevin; Davis, Frank W.; Garfin, Gregg; Jackson, Stephen T.; Terando, Adam J.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Williamson, Matthew A.; Brunson, Mark W. Foundations of translational ecology
Ecologists who specialize in translational ecology (TE) seek to link ecological knowledge to decision making by integrating ecological science with the full complement of social dimensions that underlie today's complex environmental issues. TE is motivated by a search for outcomes that directly serve the needs of natural resource managers and...
Enquist, Carolyn A. F.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Garfin, Gregg M.; Davis, Frank W.; Gerber, Leah R.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Tank, Jennifer L.; Terando, Adam; Wall, Tamara U.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Morelli, Toni L.; Hiers, J. Kevin; McNie, Elizabeth; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Williamson, Matthew A.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Yung, Laurie; Brunson, Mark W.; Hall, Kimberly R.; Hallett, Lauren M.; Lawson, Dawn M.; Moritz, Max A.; Nydick, Koren R.; Pairis, Amber; Ray, Andrea J.; Regan, Claudia M.; Safford, Hugh D.; Schwartz, Mark W.; Shaw, M. Rebecca
Grand challenges for integrated USGS science—A workshop report
Executive SummaryThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007–2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas,...
Jenni, Karen E.; Goldhaber, Martin B.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Baron, Jill S.; Bristol, R. Sky; Cantrill, Mary; Exter, Paul E.; Focazio, Michael J.; Haines, John W.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hsu, Leslie; Labson, Victor F.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Ludwig, K.A.; Milly, Paul C. D.; Morelli, Toni L.; Morman, Suzette A.; Nassar, Nedal T.; Newman, Timothy R.; Ostroff, Andrea C. ; Read, Jordan S.; Reed, Sasha C.; Shapiro, Carl D.; Smith, Richard A.; Sanford, Ward E.; Sohl, Terry L.; Stets, Edward G.; Terando, Adam J.; Tillitt, Donald E.; Tischler, Michael A.; Toccalino, Patricia L.; Wald, David J.; Waldrop, Mark P.; Wein, Anne; Weltzin, Jake F.; Zimmerman, Christian E. Erosion of refugia in the Sierra Nevada meadows network with climate change
Climate refugia management has been proposed as a climate adaptation strategy in the face of global change. Key to this strategy is identification of these areas as well as an understanding of how they are connected on the landscape. Focusing on meadows of the Sierra Nevada in California, we examined multiple factors affecting connectivity using...
Maher, Sean P.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Hershey, Michelle; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Moritz, Craig; Beissinger, Steven R. Vulnerabilities to climate change of Massachusetts animal species of greatest conservation need
Over the last decade, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has addressed the potential and actual impacts of climate change on state flora and fauna. The state’s involvement began in 2007 when, led by the Division of Fisheries and Wildlife (DFW) and assisted by Manomet Center for Con-servation Research, it carried out one of the first habitat...
Galbraith, Hector; Morelli, Toni L. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate...
Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.
Maple Syrup Production to Decline in New England in the Next Century Says New Study by UMass Amherst and Northeast CASC
Climate change will move peak syrup yield northward and will cut New England’s yield by half.