Central Valley Water and Land Use Futures
USGS Scientists published a StoryMap showing projected changes in land use, flooded area, and wildlife habitat in California’s Central Valley for five scenarios of future climate and water management.
California’s Central Valley contains habitat for migratory birds and other wildlife in the form of wetlands and flooded cropland. These habitats are at risk of being lost due to land use change and declining water availability. To support coordinated conservation in California, wetland restoration, and climate adaptation planning, scientists at U.S. Geological Survey and Point Blue Conservation Science developed projections of the Central Valley's seasonally flooded cropland and wetland wildlife habitat for five scenarios water availability and management scenarios. These scenarios were co-produced through a series of workshops with resource managers, and decision-makers form a multitude of state and federal agencies and non-governmental organizations. This study found that declining water availability was the primary contributor to habitat loss. Declines in total flooded area were greatest in hot, dry climate scenarios, whereas declines in seasonally flooded cropland habitat were greatest in warm, wet climate scenarios due to conversion to perennial cropland (Wilson et al. 2022).
This StoryMap shows where these projected changes may happen across Central Valley management units. Future land use change, flooded area, and contributions to wildlife habitat change were mapped at a 270 m2 spatial resolution and summarized for each region, Central Valley Joint Venture Basin, groundwater basin, and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Zone.
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Integrated modeling of climate and land change impacts on future dynamic wetland habitat – a case study from California’s Central Valley
This dataset consists of raster geotiff and tabular outputs of annual map projections of land use and land cover for the California Central Valley for the period 2011-2101 across 5 future scenarios. Four of the scenarios were developed as part of the Central Valley Landscape Conservation Project. The 4 original scenarios include a Bad-Business-As-Usual (BBAU; high water, poor management), Californ - Publications
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Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley
ConceptCalifornia’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited water supplies and climate change will impact the long-term viability of these intensively managed habitats.ObjectivesForecast the distribution, abundance, and connectivity of surface water and managed wetland habitats, using 5 spatiallAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, Elliott Matchett, Kristin B. Byrd, Erin Conlisk, Matthew E. Reiter, Cynthia Wallace, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L. Flint, Monica Mei Jeen MoritschProjected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California’s Central Valley
The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and uAuthorsElliott Matchett, Joseph P. Fleskes