Tamara’s broad research interests include how climate and land use change, both historic and projected, influence regional environmental processes and resource availability. Her scenario research identifies climate change impacts and feedbacks on land use, protected areas, water availability, ecosystems, and habitat sustainability.
Land change and water use in California

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water-use restrictions. Modeling results show that only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented, would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012.
Threats to protected areas

Protected areas will likely undergo shifts in ecological composition in coming decades given the coupled threats of land use and climate change. By assessing the land use threats facing species and/or ecosystems we can assist land managers in preserving biodiversity into the future and prioritizing at-risk lands for land acquisition or other nature based solutions.
Ecological Forecasting

We modeled dynamic scenarios of climate, land use, cropland and wetland habitat change across the Central Valley of California to help optimize water allocations for multiple ecosystem benefits, producing annual mapped forecasts and long-term projections of the spatial and temporal availability of managed wetland habitat in this critical migratory corridor.
Her graduate training at the University of Arizona was in the fields of biogeography, climatology, climate change, paleoclimate, and paleoecology. With her experience examining natural archives of paleo-environmental landscape change, she was able to make the leap to utilizing modern remote sensing based records to examine climate and human-derived landscape level changes and their associated impacts. Her recent work utilizes historic land change records to inform model scenarios of future land change and their potential impacts on natural resources, including habitat and water availability.
Tamara's land change scenario work in California estimates future land-use related water demand under various climate and land use futures. This work has grown to include funding from California's Strategic Growth Council for examining future water demand in underserved, groundwater dependent communities along California's Central Coast. In addition, her modeling work is being used to map future projections of flooded agricultural lands in the Central Valley as part of the NASA Ecoforecasting project, examining the availability of wildlife and migratory bird habitat under varying land use and climate scenarios. This effort involves integrated modeling between a streamflow, runoff, water demand, and water supply model which identifies flooded habitats by land use and land cover type and basin and translating this for use in the spatially explicit LUCAS land change model.
As Deputy Director of the National Innovation Center, Tamara works to expand the reach of the center, helping to forge new and exciting partnerships between USGS scientists and other public, private, academic, and non-profit parties. She is working to develop regional and national communication pipelines as well as coordinating science seminars and workshops to introduce the latest technological advancements in earth science and explore their use in the federal science portfolio.
Tamara is currently serving as the USGS Climate Science Steering Committee Coordinator, under the USGS Chief Scientist, supporting the development of the 1) USGS Climate Science Plan, 2) USGS Climate Science Communications Plan, and 3) USGS Climate Science Network Analysis. She serves in a supporting role to the Chief Scientist on the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Her work has contributed to the White House OSTP Council on Environmental Quality’s “Recommendations for Accelerating Nature-Based Solutions for Climate Progress, Ecosystems, Equity, & Prosperity - A Report to the National Climate Task Force” (2022) and the Nature Based Solution Resources Guide Companion Report Resources Guide and coordinated the USGS response for DOI.
Professional Experience
2023-2024: Policy Analyst, Nature-based Solutions and Climate Change, U.S. Department of the Interior
2022 - present: Climate Science Steering Committee Coordinator, USGS, Office of the Chief Scientist
2019 - present: Deputy Director, National Innovation Center, USGS
2017: Program Analyst – Youth and Education in Science Program, USGS
2014 - present: Research Geographer, USGS, Western Geographic Science Center (WGSC)
2009 - 2014: Geographer, USGS WGSC
2005 - 2009: Physical Scientist, USGS WGSC
Education and Certifications
M.A. Geography, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (2002)
B.A. Environmental Studies - Land Use Planning and Management, California State University East Bay, Hayward, CA (1997)
Affiliations and Memberships*
Chair - USGS EarthMAP Use Case Development Team (2020 – 2021)
Chair, USGS National Innovation Center Seminar Series (2019-present)
Co-Chair and Organizer, Federal UAS Workshop (2019 - 2021)
Technical Reviewer, California Fourth Climate Change Assessment chapter in "Increasing Soil Organic Carbon To Mitigate Greenhouse Gases And Increase Climate Resiliency For California" (2018)
Chair - Pacific Region Colloquium Committee, Menlo Park, CA (2013 - 2018)
Technical Contributor, 4th National Climate Assessment Chapter on Land Use and Land Cover (2017)
4th California Climate Assessment externally-funded partner (2016 - 2017)
Land Change Science Program Review Panel member, USGS (2016)
Co-Chair, USGS Postdoctoral/New Researcher Colloquium (2014 - 2017)
Eastern LandCarbon Land Use and Land Cover Downscaling Working Group (2011)
Association of American Geographers
American Geophysical Union
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Society for Conservation Biology
Society for Freshwater Science
California Rangeland Coalition
Society for Conservation GIS
Honors and Awards
USGS Star Award for Excellence in Service – EarthMAP Use Case Development Team Lead (2021)
USGS Star Award for Excellence in Service - National Innovation Center (2021)
Local Development under Climate Change: Evaluating Trade-offs Between Carbon Emissions, Water Sustainability, and Affordable Housing for Communities in the Central Coast ($722,000) CASGC (2020)
Integrating Land Use and Climate Change on California's Central Coast: Impacts and Adaptations for Local Communities ($415,000) CASGC (2018)
Unit Award for Excellence of Service – LandCarbon Team (2017)
Elected to Leadership 101 training by USGS colleagues (2017)
Elected Trustee of the Mountain View Whisman School District Board of Education (2016-2020)
The Nature Conservancy ($30,000) (2014)
Science and Products
National Innovation Center Seminar Series
5th Federal UxS Workshop
Integrating Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting into Decision-Support for Wetland Wildlife Management in the Central Valley of California
Pacific Region Colloquium
The Pacific Region Colloquium, founded in February 1996 as the Western Region Colloquium, was a monthly speaker series that spanned the spectrum of earth and environmental science.
Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
California land-change projections
Threats to protected areas
Land change and water use in California
Land Use and Climate Change Team
Spatial data of California riparian vegetation productivity trends over time (2000-2020) and environmental covariates
Agricultural, domestic, and ecological vulnerability of California's Central Coast to projected changes in land-use, water sustainability, and climate by 2061 under five scenarios
Integrated modeling of climate and land change impacts on future dynamic wetland habitat – a case study from California’s Central Valley
Californias Water Use Future Based on Scenarios of Land Use Change - Data Release
Land-use and Land-cover Projections for California's 4th Climate Assessment
Resilience of riparian vegetation productivity to early 21st century drought in northern California, USA
Knowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate
Linkages between land-use change and groundwater management foster long-term resilience of water supply in California
Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey
Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley
Ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change
Land-use change and future water demand in California’s central coast
Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States
Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California
Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends
Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Decision Support for Wetland and Wildlife Management
USGS Scientists published a StoryMap showing projected changes in land use, flooded area, and wildlife habitat in California’s Central Valley for five scenarios of future climate and water management.
Science and Products
- Science
National Innovation Center Seminar Series
This bi-weekly seminar series is an opportunity to present innovation successes and prospects across USGS Mission Areas. It is a forum for our scientists and partners to learn about existing and potential innovative technologies to help fill known observation gaps, as well as to present cutting edge research and technology opportunities which could be leveraged to advance USGS science through...5th Federal UxS Workshop
Welcome Back! The Federal UxS community returns to in-person meetings to explore new opportunities, and plenty of challenges, together. The overarching goal of the workshop is to approach UxS challenges with a whole-of-Government team, leveraging successes within our Agencies to accelerate our national UxS enterprise and focus group resources on shared expertise and new opportunities. Mark your...Integrating Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting into Decision-Support for Wetland Wildlife Management in the Central Valley of California
In the Central Valley of California, the few remaining wetlands plus cropland that is flooded after harvest provide critical habitat for wetland-dependent species. However future climate conditions and a growing human population will challenge how they are managed. To support coordinated conservation, wetland restoration, and climate adaptation planning, we partnered with Point Blue Conservation...Pacific Region Colloquium
The Pacific Region Colloquium, founded in February 1996 as the Western Region Colloquium, was a monthly speaker series that spanned the spectrum of earth and environmental science.
Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes.To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents...California land-change projections
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover and population for the State of California for the period 1970-2101. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In total 5...Threats to protected areas
Land-use intensification poses significant threats to biodiversity both directly through the alteration and fragmentation of ecosystems and habitat loss, and indirectly through the disruption of supporting ecological processes. While protected areas offer refugia for species and ecosystems, they do not function in isolation from surrounding natural, working, or human-dominated landscapes.Protected...Land change and water use in California
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water-use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed...Land Use and Climate Change Team
We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics. We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will... - Data
Spatial data of California riparian vegetation productivity trends over time (2000-2020) and environmental covariates
This data release contains a shapefile of riparian vegetation communities attributed with information on trends in satellite-estimates of vegetation productivity for the period from 2000-2020. Cloud-masked Landsat data were processed from 2000 to 2020 to generate a 21-year growing season (June, July, and August) time series combining data from Landsat 5 (2000-2011), Landsat 7 (2012), and Landsat 8Agricultural, domestic, and ecological vulnerability of California's Central Coast to projected changes in land-use, water sustainability, and climate by 2061 under five scenarios
This data release provides 270-m resolution maps of hotspots of vulnerability to projected changes in land-use, water shortages, and climate from 2001-2061 for agricultural, domestic, and ecological communities in the Central Coast of California, USA, under five management scenarios. This data covers the counties of Santa Cruz, San Benito, Monterey, San Luis Obispo, and Santa Barbara counties, butIntegrated modeling of climate and land change impacts on future dynamic wetland habitat – a case study from California’s Central Valley
This dataset consists of raster geotiff and tabular outputs of annual map projections of land use and land cover for the California Central Valley for the period 2011-2101 across 5 future scenarios. Four of the scenarios were developed as part of the Central Valley Landscape Conservation Project. The 4 original scenarios include a Bad-Business-As-Usual (BBAU; high water, poor management), CalifornCalifornias Water Use Future Based on Scenarios of Land Use Change - Data Release
This dataset contains .csv and .tif image files in support of the conclusions published in "Mediterranean Californias water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change" in the journal PLOS One. We used the USGS's LUCAS model to examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand, including thLand-use and Land-cover Projections for California's 4th Climate Assessment
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover for the State of California for the period 1970-2100. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In total 5 simulations wer - Multimedia
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 16
Resilience of riparian vegetation productivity to early 21st century drought in northern California, USA
Drought and intensive land use can interact as stressors on riparian vegetation, especially along rivers flowing through seasonally dry landscapes. Knowledge of past riparian vegetation response to drought and land use change can provide land managers with a better understanding of changes induced by upstream management actions, climate change, and chronic stressors. To investigate the response ofAuthorsPaul Selmants, Caroline Rose Conrad, Tamara S. Wilson, Miguel L. VillarrealKnowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate
Scientists, resource managers, and decision-makers increasingly use knowledge co-production to guide the stewardship of future landscapes under climate change. This process was applied in the California Central Valley, USA to solve complex conservation problems, where managed wetlands and croplands are flooded between fall and spring to support some of the largest concentrations of shorebirds andAuthorsKristin B. Byrd, Elliott Matchett, Claudia Mengelt, Tamara S. Wilson, Deanne DiPietro, Monica Moritsch, Erin Conlisk, Sam Veloz, Michael L. Casazza, Matthew ReiterLinkages between land-use change and groundwater management foster long-term resilience of water supply in California
Study RegionWe created a 270-m coupled model of land-use and groundwater conditions, LUCAS-W[ater], for California’s Central Coast. This groundwater-dependent region is undergoing a dramatic reorganization of groundwater management under California’s 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA).Study FocusUnderstanding land-use and land-cover change supports long-term sustainable water managAuthorsN. Van Schmidt, Tamara S. Wilson, Ruth LangridgeUse case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey
Executive SummaryThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the oveAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, Mark T. Wiltermuth, Karen E. Jenni, Robert Horton, Randall J. Hunt, Dee M. Williams, Vivian P. Nolan, Nicholas G. Aumen, David S. Brown, Kyle W. Blasch, Peter S. MurdochClimate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley
ConceptCalifornia’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited water supplies and climate change will impact the long-term viability of these intensively managed habitats.ObjectivesForecast the distribution, abundance, and connectivity of surface water and managed wetland habitats, using 5 spatiallAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, Elliott Matchett, Kristin B. Byrd, Erin Conlisk, Matthew E. Reiter, Cynthia Wallace, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L. Flint, Monica Mei Jeen MoritschEcosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change
The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation modelAuthorsPaul Selmants, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Tamara S. Wilson, Clay Trauernicht, Abby G. Frazier, Gregory P. AsnerLand-use change and future water demand in California’s central coast
Understanding future land-use related water demand is important for planners and resource managers in identifying potential shortages and crafting mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for regions dependent on limited local groundwater supplies. For the groundwater dependent Central Coast of California, we developed two scenarios of future land use and water demand based on sampling fAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, N. Van Schmidt, Ruth LangridgeCritical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States
Large-scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine-scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large-scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 197AuthorsJinxun Liu, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Zhiliang Zhu, Thomas Loveland, Terry L. Sohl, Stephen M. Howard, Carl H. Key, Todd Hawbaker, Shuguang Liu, Bradley C. Reed, Mark A. Cochrane, Linda S. Heath, Hong Jiang, David T. Price, Jing M. Chen, Decheng Zhou, Norman B. Bliss, Tamara S. Wilson, Jason T. Sherba, Qiuan Zhu, Yiqi Luo, Benjiamin PaulterEffects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California
Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecoAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, David Marvin, D. Richard Cameron, Paul Selmants, LeRoy Westerling, Jason R. Kreitler, Colin Daniel, Jinxun Liu, Tamara S. WilsonFuture scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land useAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Tamara S. Wilson, Ethan Sharygin, Jason T. SherbaMediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit fAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, D. Richard CameronProjecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residentsAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Nathan J. Wood, Christopher E. Soulard, Tamara S. Wilson - Web Tools
Decision Support for Wetland and Wildlife Management
USGS Scientists published a StoryMap showing projected changes in land use, flooded area, and wildlife habitat in California’s Central Valley for five scenarios of future climate and water management.
- News
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government