Tamara’s broad research interests include how land use and land cover change, both historic and projected, influence regional environmental processes while identifying the local and non-local drivers of those changes.
Her graduate training at the University of Arizona was in the fields of biogeography, climatology, climate change, paleoclimate, and paleoecology. With her experience examining natural archives of paleo-environmental landscape change, she was able to make the leap to utilizing modern remote sensing based records to examine climate and human-derived landscape level changes and their associated impacts. Her recent work utilizes historic land change records to inform model scenarios of future land change and their potential impacts on natural resources, including habitat and water availability.
Recently, Tamara has expanded her land change scenarios work in California to estimate future land-use related water demand under various land use futures. This work has grown to include funding from California's Strategic Growth Council for examining future water demand in groundwater dependent regions along California's Central Coast. In addition, her modeling work is being used to map future projections of flooded agricultural lands in the Central Valley as part of the NASA Ecoforecasting project, examining the availability of wildlife and migratory bird habitat under varying land use and climate scenarios. This effort involves integrated modeling between a streamflow, runoff, water demand, and water supply model which identifies flooded habitats by land use and land cover type and basin and translating this for use in the spatially explicit LUCAS land change model.
As recently appointed Deputy Director of the National Innovation Center, Tamara is working to expand the reach of the center, helping to forge new and exciting partnerships between USGS scientists and other public, private, academic, and non-profit parties. She is working to develop regional and national communication pipelines as well as coordinating science seminars and workshops to introduce the latest technological advancements in earth science and explore their use in the federal science portfolio.
Science and Products
Linkages between land-use change and groundwater management foster long-term resilience of water supply in California
Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey
Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley
Ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change
Land-use change and future water demand in California’s central coast
Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California
Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends
Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Estimating carbon sequestration in the piedmont ecoregion of the United States from 1971 to 2010
Future land-use related water demand in California
Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios
National Innovation Center Seminar Series
5th Federal UxS Workshop
Pacific Region Colloquium
The Pacific Region Colloquium, founded in February 1996 as the Western Region Colloquium, was a monthly speaker series that spanned the spectrum of earth and environmental science.
Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
California land-change projections
Land change and water use in Mediterranean California
Threats to protected areas
Land Use and Climate Change Team
Integrated modeling of climate and land change impacts on future dynamic wetland habitat – a case study from California’s Central Valley
Californias Water Use Future Based on Scenarios of Land Use Change - Data Release
Land-use and Land-cover Projections for California's 4th Climate Assessment
Decision Support for Wetland and Wildlife Management
USGS Scientists published a StoryMap showing projected changes in land use, flooded area, and wildlife habitat in California’s Central Valley for five scenarios of future climate and water management.
Science and Products
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Filter Total Items: 13
Linkages between land-use change and groundwater management foster long-term resilience of water supply in California
Study RegionWe created a 270-m coupled model of land-use and groundwater conditions, LUCAS-W[ater], for California’s Central Coast. This groundwater-dependent region is undergoing a dramatic reorganization of groundwater management under California’s 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA).Study FocusUnderstanding land-use and land-cover change supports long-term sustainable water managUse case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey
Executive SummaryThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the oveClimate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley
ConceptCalifornia’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited water supplies and climate change will impact the long-term viability of these intensively managed habitats.ObjectivesForecast the distribution, abundance, and connectivity of surface water and managed wetland habitats, using 5 spatiallEcosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change
The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation modelLand-use change and future water demand in California’s central coast
Understanding future land-use related water demand is important for planners and resource managers in identifying potential shortages and crafting mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for regions dependent on limited local groundwater supplies. For the groundwater dependent Central Coast of California, we developed two scenarios of future land use and water demand based on sampling fEffects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California
Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecoFuture scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land useMediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit fProjecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residentsEstimating carbon sequestration in the piedmont ecoregion of the United States from 1971 to 2010
Background: Human activities have diverse and profound impacts on ecosystem carbon cycles. The Piedmont ecoregion in the eastern United States has undergone significant land use and land cover change in the past few decades. The purpose of this study was to use newly available land use and land cover change data to quantify carbon changes within the ecoregion. Land use and land cover change data (Future land-use related water demand in California
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developedLand-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios
Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a - Science
National Innovation Center Seminar Series
This bi-weekly seminar series is an opportunity to present innovation successes and prospects across USGS Mission Areas. It is a forum for our scientists and partners to learn about existing and potential innovative technologies to help fill known observation gaps, as well as to present cutting edge research and technology opportunities which could be leveraged to advance USGS science through...5th Federal UxS Workshop
Welcome Back! The Federal UxS community returns to in-person meetings to explore new opportunities, and plenty of challenges, together. The overarching goal of the workshop is to approach UxS challenges with a whole-of-Government team, leveraging successes within our Agencies to accelerate our national UxS enterprise and focus group resources on shared expertise and new opportunities. Mark your...Pacific Region Colloquium
The Pacific Region Colloquium, founded in February 1996 as the Western Region Colloquium, was a monthly speaker series that spanned the spectrum of earth and environmental science.
Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes.To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents...California land-change projections
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover and population for the State of California for the period 1970-2101. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In total 5...Land change and water use in Mediterranean California
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water-use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies.We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed...Threats to protected areas
Land-use intensification poses significant threats to biodiversity both directly through the alteration and fragmentation of ecosystems and habitat loss, and indirectly through the disruption of supporting ecological processes. While protected areas offer refugia for species and ecosystems, they do not function in isolation from surrounding natural, working, or human-dominated landscapes.Protected...Land Use and Climate Change Team
We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics.We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will... - Data
Integrated modeling of climate and land change impacts on future dynamic wetland habitat – a case study from California’s Central Valley
This dataset consists of raster geotiff and tabular outputs of annual map projections of land use and land cover for the California Central Valley for the period 2011-2101 across 5 future scenarios. Four of the scenarios were developed as part of the Central Valley Landscape Conservation Project. The 4 original scenarios include a Bad-Business-As-Usual (BBAU; high water, poor management), CalifornCalifornias Water Use Future Based on Scenarios of Land Use Change - Data Release
This dataset contains .csv and .tif image files in support of the conclusions published in "Mediterranean Californias water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change" in the journal PLOS One. We used the USGS's LUCAS model to examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand, including thLand-use and Land-cover Projections for California's 4th Climate Assessment
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover for the State of California for the period 1970-2100. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In total 5 simulations wer - Web Tools
Decision Support for Wetland and Wildlife Management
USGS Scientists published a StoryMap showing projected changes in land use, flooded area, and wildlife habitat in California’s Central Valley for five scenarios of future climate and water management.
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