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An example of Bayesian updating of productivity parameter (a-value) for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake. Immediately following the earthquake, the SZ-GENERIC region-specific a-value distribution can be used. As the aftershock sequence progresses and additional data are collected, this distribution can be treated as a prior distribution and updated using Bayes’ rule. Posterior distributions at subsequent time intervals are shown. Figure from Page et al. (2016).
AftershockForecastfig6.gif
AftershockForecastfig6.gif
AftershockForecastfig6.gif

An example of Bayesian updating of productivity parameter (a-value) for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake. Immediately following the earthquake, the SZ-GENERIC region-specific a-value distribution can be used.

An example of Bayesian updating of productivity parameter (a-value) for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake. Immediately following the earthquake, the SZ-GENERIC region-specific a-value distribution can be used.

Screenshot of the Overview webpage for an earthquake in California. The “Aftershock Forecast” card is at lower center.
Aftershock Forecast on the earthquake event page
Aftershock Forecast on the earthquake event page
Aftershock Forecast on the earthquake event page

Screenshot of the Overview webpage for an earthquake in California. The “Aftershock Forecast” card is at lower center.

Scientists setting up an array of seismometers in a field.
Surface nodal seismometer installation in Turkiye
Surface nodal seismometer installation in Turkiye
Surface nodal seismometer installation in Turkiye

USGS installed an array of seismometers in a field in Gaziantep, Turkiye in order to record ambient noise and earthquakes, including the aftershocks of the devastating earthquakes of 2023. Robert Sickler of the USGS in the foreground and an AFAD employee in the background.

USGS installed an array of seismometers in a field in Gaziantep, Turkiye in order to record ambient noise and earthquakes, including the aftershocks of the devastating earthquakes of 2023. Robert Sickler of the USGS in the foreground and an AFAD employee in the background.

CÁC TRẬN ĐỘNG ĐẤT XẢY RA Ở ĐÂU: ĐỘNG ĐẤT TẠI THÀNH PHỐ NEW YORK
CÁC TRẬN ĐỘNG ĐẤT XẢY RA Ở ĐÂU: ĐỘNG ĐẤT TẠI THÀNH PHỐ NEW YORK
CÁC TRẬN ĐỘNG ĐẤT XẢY RA Ở ĐÂU: ĐỘNG ĐẤT TẠI THÀNH PHỐ NEW YORK
ГДЕ БЫВАЮТ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ: ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ В НЬЮ-ЙОРКЕ
ГДЕ БЫВАЮТ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ: ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ В НЬЮ-ЙОРКЕ
ГДЕ БЫВАЮТ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ: ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ В НЬЮ-ЙОРКЕ
ГДЕ БЫВАЮТ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ: ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ В НЬЮ-ЙОРКЕ

ГДЕ БЫВАЮТ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ

Общенациональная модель сейсмической опасности 2023 г.

ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ В НЬЮ-ЙОРКЕ

An inforgraphic that shows a person receiving an earthquake early warning after they experience an earthquake.
Things to Know - Limitations_Infographic
Things to Know - Limitations_Infographic
Things to Know - Limitations_Infographic

Things to know about ShakeAlert graphic that shows the limitations of earthquake early warning.

a man wearing a grey shirt and green hat squats next to a bag of tree stump samples
A researcher with a bag of stump samples.
A researcher with a bag of stump samples.
A researcher with a bag of stump samples.

Austin Elliott with the USGS Earthquake Science Center prepares to carry Redwood stump samples out to the road.

A tree stump with a rectangle box removed from the middle.
Wedge sample removed from a redwood stump.
Wedge sample removed from a redwood stump.
Wedge sample removed from a redwood stump.

Wedge sample removed from a redwood stump at the base of the San Andreas fault scarp (slope up in the background).

a couple rectangle blocks of redwood stumps on top of mulch
Redwood stump sample
Redwood stump sample
Redwood stump sample

Sample removed from a redwood stump, displaying annual rings. The sample will help researchers determine past earthquakes in the area. 

Sample removed from a redwood stump, displaying annual rings. The sample will help researchers determine past earthquakes in the area. 

a man stands among skinny redwood trees with green leaves in the background
A researcher stands between two sampled redwood stumps.
A researcher stands between two sampled redwood stumps.
A researcher stands between two sampled redwood stumps.

Nick Cunetta stands between two sampled redwood stumps on a pressure ridge between two strands of the San Andreas fault

A massive tree stump takes up most of the frame while a scientist poses on the side.
Belle Philibosian examines a redwood stump.
Belle Philibosian examines a redwood stump.
Belle Philibosian examines a redwood stump.

Belle Philibosian with the USGS Earthquake Science Center examines a redwood stump along the north coast section of the San Andreas Fault near Gualala, California in late August 2022.  

Belle Philibosian with the USGS Earthquake Science Center examines a redwood stump along the north coast section of the San Andreas Fault near Gualala, California in late August 2022.  

two tree cutters stand among skinny trees and a tree stump
Sawyers cutting into a leaning redwood snag.
Sawyers cutting into a leaning redwood snag.
Sawyers cutting into a leaning redwood snag.

Sawyers cutting into a leaning redwood snag. The snag is located directly on the San Andreas fault scarp (slope down to the left) and the leaning may have occurred during an earthquake.

Sawyers cutting into a leaning redwood snag. The snag is located directly on the San Andreas fault scarp (slope down to the left) and the leaning may have occurred during an earthquake.

A map showing the earthquake swarm in South Carolina. a star marks the epicenter with rough outlines for expected shaking.
Map of the M 3.5 - 6 km E of Elgin, South Carolina on June 29,2022
Map of the M 3.5 - 6 km E of Elgin, South Carolina on June 29,2022
Map of the M 3.5 - 6 km E of Elgin, South Carolina on June 29,2022

A map showing the epicenter of the M 3.5 quake that occurred 3.7 miles (6 km) east of Elgin, South Carolina on June 29, 2022. The quake is part of an ongoing sequence in central South Carolina. The sequence started on December 27, 2021, with an M3.3 earthquake near Lugoff, South Carolina.

A map showing the epicenter of the M 3.5 quake that occurred 3.7 miles (6 km) east of Elgin, South Carolina on June 29, 2022. The quake is part of an ongoing sequence in central South Carolina. The sequence started on December 27, 2021, with an M3.3 earthquake near Lugoff, South Carolina.

Image shows a man and a woman smiling and holding a coffee mug
Mendenhall Fellows Sabine Loos and Max Schneider
Mendenhall Fellows Sabine Loos and Max Schneider
Mendenhall Fellows Sabine Loos and Max Schneider

In June 2022, Mendenhall Fellow Sabine Loos (Research Civil Engineer in the Geological Hazards Science Center) presented a seminar to USGS's Earthquake Science Center at Moffett Field, CA, where Max Schneider (Research Statistician) works as a Mendenhall Fellow.

In June 2022, Mendenhall Fellow Sabine Loos (Research Civil Engineer in the Geological Hazards Science Center) presented a seminar to USGS's Earthquake Science Center at Moffett Field, CA, where Max Schneider (Research Statistician) works as a Mendenhall Fellow.

3 men pose in front of a 23 foot long boat sitting on a trailer adjacent to a garage
Final preparations for the 2022 Delaware River American shad study
Final preparations for the 2022 Delaware River American shad study
Final preparations for the 2022 Delaware River American shad study

Micah Kieffer, John Burns (volunteer), and Ted Castro-Santos performing final preparations on the 23 foot Commander for service in the initial year of EESC's Delaware River shad study.

USGS scientist with yellow visibility safety vest on talking to the camera with people working in the background.
Joanne Chan - Seismic Survey
Joanne Chan - Seismic Survey
Joanne Chan - Seismic Survey

Joanne Chan conducting a seismic survey in San Carlos, California, looking for traces of the Serra Fault. 

Joanne Chan conducting a seismic survey in San Carlos, California, looking for traces of the Serra Fault. 

USGS scientists installing seismometers in an open desert area in California.
Seismometer installation in Ridgecrest, California
Seismometer installation in Ridgecrest, California
Seismometer installation in Ridgecrest, California

USGS scientists Nicholas van der Elst and Alan Yong installing a seismometer near the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in southern California in order to record its aftershocks.

USGS scientists Nicholas van der Elst and Alan Yong installing a seismometer near the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in southern California in order to record its aftershocks.

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