NPWRC is developing, applying, and refining an integrated, process-based, systems model for prairie-pothole wetlands to facilitate forecasts of how climate and land-use change will affect wetland processes and biota. The Pothole Hydrology Linked System Simulator model (PHyLiSS) simulates changes in hydrology, water chemistry, plant communities, invertebrates, and other biota as a result of altered temperature and precipitation inputs. We use extensive biotic and abiotic datasets from the Missouri Coteau Wetland Ecosystem Observatory to parameterize, calibrate, and validate the model. Once completed, PHyLiSS will allow us to explore important scientific questions related to (1) how changes in climate will affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie-pothole wetlands; (2) how these hydrological changes will affect chemical characteristics of various wetland types; (3) how plant communities, aquatic invertebrates, amphibians, waterfowl, and other biota will likely be affected; (4) how alternate land uses will interact with climate to alter wetland processes; and (5) how potential effects of climate change on prairie-wetland ecosystems might be mitigated.
Below are publications associated with this project.
The Pothole Hydrology-Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS)—Development and application of a systems model for prairie-pothole wetlands
The North American Prairie Pothole Region covers about 770,000 square kilometers of the United States and Canada (including parts of 5 States and 3 provinces: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta). The Laurentide Ice Sheet shaped the landscape of the region about 12,000 to 14,000 years ago. The retreat of the ice sheet left behind low-permeabili
Authors
Owen P. McKenna, David M. Mushet, Eric J. Scherff, Kyle McLean, Christopher T. Mills
Filter Total Items: 22
Alternative stable states in inherently unstable systems
Alternative stable states are nontransitory states within which communities can exist. However, even highly dynamic communities can be viewed within the framework of stable‐state theory if an appropriate “ecologically relevant” time scale is identified. The ecologically relevant time scale for dynamic systems needs to conform to the amount of time needed for a system's community to complete an ent
Authors
David M. Mushet, Owen P. McKenna, Kyle McLean
Synergistic interaction of climate and land-use drivers alter the function of North American, Prairie-pothole Wetlands
Prairie-pothole wetlands provide the critical habitat necessary for supporting North American migratory waterfowl populations. However, climate and land-use change threaten the sustainability of these wetland ecosystems. Very few experiments and analyses have been designed to investigate the relative impacts of climate and land-use change drivers, as well as the antagonistic or synergistic interac
Authors
Owen P. McKenna, Samuel Richard Kucia, David M. Mushet, Michael J. Anteau, Mark T. Wiltermuth
The Pothole Hydrology-Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS)—Development and application of a systems model for prairie-pothole wetlands
The North American Prairie Pothole Region covers about 770,000 square kilometers of the United States and Canada (including parts of 5 States and 3 provinces: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta). The Laurentide Ice Sheet shaped the landscape of the region about 12,000 to 14,000 years ago. The retreat of the ice sheet left behind low-permeabili
Authors
Owen P. McKenna, David M. Mushet, Eric J. Scherff, Kyle McLean, Christopher T. Mills
Long-term changes in pond permanence, size, and salinity in Prairie Pothole Region wetlands: The role of groundwater-pond interaction
Study RegionCottonwood Lake area wetlands, North Dakota, U.S.A.Study FocusFluctuations in pond permanence, size, and salinity are key features of prairie-pothole wetlands that provide a variety of wetland habitats for waterfowl in the northern prairie of North America. Observation of water-level and salinity fluctuations in a semi-permanent wetland pond over a 20-year period, included periods when
Authors
James W. LaBaugh, Donald O. Rosenberry, David M. Mushet, Brian Neff, Richard D. Nelson, Ned H. Euliss
Accommodating state shifts within the conceptual framework of the wetland continuum
The Wetland Continuum is a conceptual framework that facilitates the interpretation of biological studies of wetland ecosystems. Recently summarized evidence documenting how a multi-decadal wet period has influenced aspects of wetland, lake and stream systems in the southern prairie-pothole region of North America has revealed the potential for wetlands to shift among alternate states. We propose
Authors
David M. Mushet, Owen P. McKenna, James W. LaBaugh, Ned H. Euliss, Donald O. Rosenberry
Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region
Changing magnitude, frequency, and timing of precipitation can influence aquatic-system hydrological, geochemical, and biological processes, in some cases resulting in system-wide shifts to an alternate state. Since the early 1990s, the southern Prairie Pothole Region has been subjected to an extended period of increased wetness resulting in marked changes to aquatic systems defining this region.
Authors
Owen P. McKenna, David M. Mushet, Donald O. Rosenberry, James W. LaBaugh
Temporary wetlands: Challenges and solutions to conserving a ‘disappearing’ ecosystem
Frequent drying of ponded water, and support of unique, highly specialized assemblages of often rare species, characterize temporary wetlands, such as vernal pools, gilgais, and prairie potholes. As small aquatic features embedded in a terrestrial landscape, temporary wetlands enhance biodiversity and provide aesthetic, biogeochemical, and hydrologic functions. Challenges to conserving temporary w
Authors
Aram J.K. Calhoun, David M. Mushet, Kathleen P. Bell, Dani Boix, James A. Fitzsimons, Francis Isselin-Nondedeu
Changes in pond water levels and surface extent due to climate variability alter solute sources to closed-basin Prairie-Pothole wetland ponds, 1979 to 2012
Wetter conditions beginning in 1993 resulted in marked changes in water levels and surface extent of prairie-pothole region wetland ponds, including closed-basin wetlands in the Cottonwood Lake area of North Dakota, U.S.A. Pond water levels after 1993 were consistently 0.5 to 2 m higher than during 1979–1993 (≤ 1 m deep) in wetlands lacking surface or substantial groundwater outlets, and ponds of
Authors
James W. LaBaugh, David M. Mushet, Donald O. Rosenberry, Ned H. Euliss, Martin B. Goldhaber, Christopher T. Mills, Richard D. Nelson
Controls on the geochemical evolution of Prairie Pothole Region lakes and wetlands over decadal time scales
One hundred sixty-seven Prairie Pothole lakes, ponds and wetlands (largely lakes) previously analyzed chemically during the late 1960’s and early to mid-1970’s were resampled and reanalyzed in 2011–2012. The two sampling periods differed climatically. The earlier sampling took place during normal to slightly dry conditions, whereas the latter occurred during and immediately following exceptionally
Authors
Martin B. Goldhaber, Christopher T. Mills, David M. Mushet, R. Blaine McCleskey, Jennifer Rover
Intermittent surface water connectivity: Fill and spill vs. fill and merge dynamics
Intermittent surface connectivity can influence aquatic systems, since chemical and biotic movements are often associated with water flow. Although often referred to as fill and spill, wetlands also fill and merge. We examined the effects of these connection types on water levels, ion concentrations, and biotic communities of eight prairie pothole wetlands between 1979 and 2015. Fill and spill cau
Authors
Scott G. Leibowitz, David M. Mushet, Wesley E. Newton
Interannual water-level fluctuations and the vegetation of prairie potholes: Potential impacts of climate change
Mean water depth and range of interannual water-level fluctuations over wet-dry cycles in precipitation are major drivers of vegetation zone formation in North American prairie potholes. We used harmonic hydrological models, which require only mean interannual water depth and amplitude of water-level fluctuations over a wet–dry cycle, to examine how the vegetation zones in a pothole would respond
Authors
Arnold van der Valk, David M. Mushet
Midcontinent Prairie-Pothole wetlands and climate change: An Introduction to the Supplemental Issue
The multitude of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America forms one of Earth’s largest wetland complexes. The midcontinent location exposes this ecologically and economically important wetland system to a highly variable climate, markedly influencing ponded-water levels, hydroperiods, chemical characteristics, and biota of individual basins. Given their dominance on the landscape an
Authors
David M. Mushet
- Overview
NPWRC is developing, applying, and refining an integrated, process-based, systems model for prairie-pothole wetlands to facilitate forecasts of how climate and land-use change will affect wetland processes and biota. The Pothole Hydrology Linked System Simulator model (PHyLiSS) simulates changes in hydrology, water chemistry, plant communities, invertebrates, and other biota as a result of altered temperature and precipitation inputs. We use extensive biotic and abiotic datasets from the Missouri Coteau Wetland Ecosystem Observatory to parameterize, calibrate, and validate the model. Once completed, PHyLiSS will allow us to explore important scientific questions related to (1) how changes in climate will affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie-pothole wetlands; (2) how these hydrological changes will affect chemical characteristics of various wetland types; (3) how plant communities, aquatic invertebrates, amphibians, waterfowl, and other biota will likely be affected; (4) how alternate land uses will interact with climate to alter wetland processes; and (5) how potential effects of climate change on prairie-wetland ecosystems might be mitigated.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
The Pothole Hydrology-Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS)—Development and application of a systems model for prairie-pothole wetlands
The North American Prairie Pothole Region covers about 770,000 square kilometers of the United States and Canada (including parts of 5 States and 3 provinces: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta). The Laurentide Ice Sheet shaped the landscape of the region about 12,000 to 14,000 years ago. The retreat of the ice sheet left behind low-permeabiliAuthorsOwen P. McKenna, David M. Mushet, Eric J. Scherff, Kyle McLean, Christopher T. MillsFilter Total Items: 22Alternative stable states in inherently unstable systems
Alternative stable states are nontransitory states within which communities can exist. However, even highly dynamic communities can be viewed within the framework of stable‐state theory if an appropriate “ecologically relevant” time scale is identified. The ecologically relevant time scale for dynamic systems needs to conform to the amount of time needed for a system's community to complete an entAuthorsDavid M. Mushet, Owen P. McKenna, Kyle McLeanSynergistic interaction of climate and land-use drivers alter the function of North American, Prairie-pothole Wetlands
Prairie-pothole wetlands provide the critical habitat necessary for supporting North American migratory waterfowl populations. However, climate and land-use change threaten the sustainability of these wetland ecosystems. Very few experiments and analyses have been designed to investigate the relative impacts of climate and land-use change drivers, as well as the antagonistic or synergistic interacAuthorsOwen P. McKenna, Samuel Richard Kucia, David M. Mushet, Michael J. Anteau, Mark T. WiltermuthThe Pothole Hydrology-Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS)—Development and application of a systems model for prairie-pothole wetlands
The North American Prairie Pothole Region covers about 770,000 square kilometers of the United States and Canada (including parts of 5 States and 3 provinces: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta). The Laurentide Ice Sheet shaped the landscape of the region about 12,000 to 14,000 years ago. The retreat of the ice sheet left behind low-permeabiliAuthorsOwen P. McKenna, David M. Mushet, Eric J. Scherff, Kyle McLean, Christopher T. MillsLong-term changes in pond permanence, size, and salinity in Prairie Pothole Region wetlands: The role of groundwater-pond interaction
Study RegionCottonwood Lake area wetlands, North Dakota, U.S.A.Study FocusFluctuations in pond permanence, size, and salinity are key features of prairie-pothole wetlands that provide a variety of wetland habitats for waterfowl in the northern prairie of North America. Observation of water-level and salinity fluctuations in a semi-permanent wetland pond over a 20-year period, included periods whenAuthorsJames W. LaBaugh, Donald O. Rosenberry, David M. Mushet, Brian Neff, Richard D. Nelson, Ned H. EulissAccommodating state shifts within the conceptual framework of the wetland continuum
The Wetland Continuum is a conceptual framework that facilitates the interpretation of biological studies of wetland ecosystems. Recently summarized evidence documenting how a multi-decadal wet period has influenced aspects of wetland, lake and stream systems in the southern prairie-pothole region of North America has revealed the potential for wetlands to shift among alternate states. We proposeAuthorsDavid M. Mushet, Owen P. McKenna, James W. LaBaugh, Ned H. Euliss, Donald O. RosenberryEvidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region
Changing magnitude, frequency, and timing of precipitation can influence aquatic-system hydrological, geochemical, and biological processes, in some cases resulting in system-wide shifts to an alternate state. Since the early 1990s, the southern Prairie Pothole Region has been subjected to an extended period of increased wetness resulting in marked changes to aquatic systems defining this region.AuthorsOwen P. McKenna, David M. Mushet, Donald O. Rosenberry, James W. LaBaughTemporary wetlands: Challenges and solutions to conserving a ‘disappearing’ ecosystem
Frequent drying of ponded water, and support of unique, highly specialized assemblages of often rare species, characterize temporary wetlands, such as vernal pools, gilgais, and prairie potholes. As small aquatic features embedded in a terrestrial landscape, temporary wetlands enhance biodiversity and provide aesthetic, biogeochemical, and hydrologic functions. Challenges to conserving temporary wAuthorsAram J.K. Calhoun, David M. Mushet, Kathleen P. Bell, Dani Boix, James A. Fitzsimons, Francis Isselin-NondedeuChanges in pond water levels and surface extent due to climate variability alter solute sources to closed-basin Prairie-Pothole wetland ponds, 1979 to 2012
Wetter conditions beginning in 1993 resulted in marked changes in water levels and surface extent of prairie-pothole region wetland ponds, including closed-basin wetlands in the Cottonwood Lake area of North Dakota, U.S.A. Pond water levels after 1993 were consistently 0.5 to 2 m higher than during 1979–1993 (≤ 1 m deep) in wetlands lacking surface or substantial groundwater outlets, and ponds ofAuthorsJames W. LaBaugh, David M. Mushet, Donald O. Rosenberry, Ned H. Euliss, Martin B. Goldhaber, Christopher T. Mills, Richard D. NelsonControls on the geochemical evolution of Prairie Pothole Region lakes and wetlands over decadal time scales
One hundred sixty-seven Prairie Pothole lakes, ponds and wetlands (largely lakes) previously analyzed chemically during the late 1960’s and early to mid-1970’s were resampled and reanalyzed in 2011–2012. The two sampling periods differed climatically. The earlier sampling took place during normal to slightly dry conditions, whereas the latter occurred during and immediately following exceptionallyAuthorsMartin B. Goldhaber, Christopher T. Mills, David M. Mushet, R. Blaine McCleskey, Jennifer RoverIntermittent surface water connectivity: Fill and spill vs. fill and merge dynamics
Intermittent surface connectivity can influence aquatic systems, since chemical and biotic movements are often associated with water flow. Although often referred to as fill and spill, wetlands also fill and merge. We examined the effects of these connection types on water levels, ion concentrations, and biotic communities of eight prairie pothole wetlands between 1979 and 2015. Fill and spill cauAuthorsScott G. Leibowitz, David M. Mushet, Wesley E. NewtonInterannual water-level fluctuations and the vegetation of prairie potholes: Potential impacts of climate change
Mean water depth and range of interannual water-level fluctuations over wet-dry cycles in precipitation are major drivers of vegetation zone formation in North American prairie potholes. We used harmonic hydrological models, which require only mean interannual water depth and amplitude of water-level fluctuations over a wet–dry cycle, to examine how the vegetation zones in a pothole would respondAuthorsArnold van der Valk, David M. MushetMidcontinent Prairie-Pothole wetlands and climate change: An Introduction to the Supplemental Issue
The multitude of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America forms one of Earth’s largest wetland complexes. The midcontinent location exposes this ecologically and economically important wetland system to a highly variable climate, markedly influencing ponded-water levels, hydroperiods, chemical characteristics, and biota of individual basins. Given their dominance on the landscape anAuthorsDavid M. Mushet