Understanding the variability in mechanisms underlying reef resilience is critical for reef management under climate change.

This study is part of the USGS Coral Reef Project.
The Problem
Coral reefs are facing increasing stress from climate change (elevated sea-surface temperatures and acidification), combined with local stresses from over-fishing and sedimentation and other sources of land-based pollution. In light of the potential for these stressors to increase the rate of coral reef degradation to epidemic levels, coral reef scientists and managers world-wide are shifting emphasis towards identifying the key mechanisms controlling reef resiliency. There is a compelling need for information that will help managers identify processes and specific areas, at the jurisdictional level, where coral reefs will be the most viable in the future and where, given the unpredictability of stresses, reefs might be best suited for recovery. For example, some coral reefs that had been decimated by bleaching in 1997–1998 subsequently made rapid recoveries; clearly, identifying reefs having such potential will be powerful management tool in this era of increasing stress agents. This shift by the scientific community from identifying the processes of decline to identifying solutions for the future is highlighted in many recent publications, workshops, and international meetings.
Much of the thinking thus far by the scientific community has focused on the biologic indicators of resiliency, such as coral cover, species diversity, and fish populations. The parameters that influence the health and sustainability of coral reefs are diverse and include changes in watersheds, coastal development, stream discharge, coastal circulation, and larval pathways and natural causes of stress (for example, large wave events in Hawaiʻi). They also include potential natural processes that reduce stress (for example, upwelling, internal-wave mixing, submarine groundwater discharge). Identifying areas of coral reefs that have the highest potential for survival requires a cross-cutting assessment of all of the salient geographic, geologic, and oceanographic factors as well.
Very little effort thus far has addressed potential reef managed/protected areas using a comprehensive evaluation of all the important processes that affect the health and long-term viability of a reef. Understanding the variability in mechanisms underlying resilience is critical for reef management under climate change, for reefs able to rapidly recover due to a combination of resiliency factors may serve as key refugia, or sources of larvae, for reef recovery at larger scales.
The Approach
This effort represents a new level of research and coordination, and we will have a two-fold approach.
- Focused research studies on natural processes that have the potential to offset deleterious effects due to climate change. Improved understanding of the natural processes that reduce water temperature to selected reefs is a key objective. Upwelling of cool oceanic seawater along reef fronts, mixing by breaking internal waves, and discharge of submarine groundwater onto shallow reef flats are three such processes.
- A comprehensive evaluation of coral reefs and all important geologic and oceanographic factors for identification of those reefs, at a regional scale, that are potentially the most resilient and the most likely to recover from an extreme event. Marine protected areas in Hawaiʻi are very small, and as noted in Status of Coral Reefs in Hawaiʻi and U.S. Pacific Remote Island Areas, Chapter 15, (2008): “MPAs [in Hawaiʻi] are too small to have significant effects outside their boundaries.”
The approach to these interdisciplinary studies will rely on a combination of laboratory efforts, field measurements and physics-based numerical monitoring. We use a wide range of tools to try to answer these questions, including: oceanographic instruments (for example, acoustic Doppler current profilers, wave/tide gauges, temperature sensors, salinity sensors, turbidity sensors, chemical sensors) mounted on the seabed or on moorings, water-column profilers with similar suites of sensors, GPS-equipped Lagrangian surface drifters, drop and towed underwater video mapping systems, swath acoustic mapping systems, airborne and space-based remote sensing imagery, and physics-based numerical models.
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Modeled effects of depth and semidiurnal temperature fluctuations on predictions of year that coral reef locations reach annual severe bleaching for various global climate model projections
Coral reef profiles for wave-runup prediction
Model parameter input files to compare wave-averaged versus wave-resolving XBeach coastal flooding models for coral reef-lined coasts
Dynamically downscaled future wave projections from SWAN model results for the main Hawaiian Islands
Projected flooding extents and depths based on 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year wave-energy return periods, with and without coral reefs, for the States of Hawaii and Florida, the Territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Physics-based numerical circulation model outputs of ocean surface circulation during the 2010-2013 summer coral-spawning seasons in Maui Nui, Hawaii, USA
Below are publications associated with this project.
Internal tides can provide thermal refugia that will buffer some coral reefs from future global warming
The importance of explicitly modelling sea-swell waves for runup on reef-lined coasts
Hydro-morphological characterization of coral reefs for wave runup prediction
Pulse sediment event does not impact the metabolism of a mixed coral reef community
The major coral reefs of Maui Nui, Hawai‘i—distribution, physical characteristics, oceanographic controls, and environmental threats
Rigorously valuing the role of U.S. coral reefs in coastal hazard risk reduction
HyCReWW: A hybrid coral reef wave and water level metamodel
Stream sediment geochemistry of four small drainages on the north shore of Kauai west of Hanalei
Physical mechanisms influencing localized patterns of temperature variability and coral bleaching within a system of reef atolls
Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding
Carbonate system parameters of an algal-dominated reef along west Maui
Rigorously valuing the role of coral reefs in coastal protection: An example from Maui, Hawaii, U.S.A.
- Overview
Understanding the variability in mechanisms underlying reef resilience is critical for reef management under climate change.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. Visit Media to see details.Map showing the paths that ocean current-following surface drifters deployed in coral larval slicks off west Maui traveled in 24 hours following their release during a coral spawning event. Such data suggests that the coral reefs off west-central Maui may provide coral larvae to the reefs off northeastern Lānaʻi. This study is part of the USGS Coral Reef Project.
The Problem
Coral reefs are facing increasing stress from climate change (elevated sea-surface temperatures and acidification), combined with local stresses from over-fishing and sedimentation and other sources of land-based pollution. In light of the potential for these stressors to increase the rate of coral reef degradation to epidemic levels, coral reef scientists and managers world-wide are shifting emphasis towards identifying the key mechanisms controlling reef resiliency. There is a compelling need for information that will help managers identify processes and specific areas, at the jurisdictional level, where coral reefs will be the most viable in the future and where, given the unpredictability of stresses, reefs might be best suited for recovery. For example, some coral reefs that had been decimated by bleaching in 1997–1998 subsequently made rapid recoveries; clearly, identifying reefs having such potential will be powerful management tool in this era of increasing stress agents. This shift by the scientific community from identifying the processes of decline to identifying solutions for the future is highlighted in many recent publications, workshops, and international meetings.
Underwater photograph of coral (Montipora capitata) egg-sperm bundles floating to the surface during a coral spawning experiment off west-central Maui. Much of the thinking thus far by the scientific community has focused on the biologic indicators of resiliency, such as coral cover, species diversity, and fish populations. The parameters that influence the health and sustainability of coral reefs are diverse and include changes in watersheds, coastal development, stream discharge, coastal circulation, and larval pathways and natural causes of stress (for example, large wave events in Hawaiʻi). They also include potential natural processes that reduce stress (for example, upwelling, internal-wave mixing, submarine groundwater discharge). Identifying areas of coral reefs that have the highest potential for survival requires a cross-cutting assessment of all of the salient geographic, geologic, and oceanographic factors as well.
Very little effort thus far has addressed potential reef managed/protected areas using a comprehensive evaluation of all the important processes that affect the health and long-term viability of a reef. Understanding the variability in mechanisms underlying resilience is critical for reef management under climate change, for reefs able to rapidly recover due to a combination of resiliency factors may serve as key refugia, or sources of larvae, for reef recovery at larger scales.
Map showing the location of existing marine managed/protected areas in the Maui Nui complex in the Hawaiian islands, which encompasses the islands of Molokaʻi, Maui, Lānaʻi, and Kahoʻolawe. The Approach
This effort represents a new level of research and coordination, and we will have a two-fold approach.
- Focused research studies on natural processes that have the potential to offset deleterious effects due to climate change. Improved understanding of the natural processes that reduce water temperature to selected reefs is a key objective. Upwelling of cool oceanic seawater along reef fronts, mixing by breaking internal waves, and discharge of submarine groundwater onto shallow reef flats are three such processes.
- A comprehensive evaluation of coral reefs and all important geologic and oceanographic factors for identification of those reefs, at a regional scale, that are potentially the most resilient and the most likely to recover from an extreme event. Marine protected areas in Hawaiʻi are very small, and as noted in Status of Coral Reefs in Hawaiʻi and U.S. Pacific Remote Island Areas, Chapter 15, (2008): “MPAs [in Hawaiʻi] are too small to have significant effects outside their boundaries.”
The approach to these interdisciplinary studies will rely on a combination of laboratory efforts, field measurements and physics-based numerical monitoring. We use a wide range of tools to try to answer these questions, including: oceanographic instruments (for example, acoustic Doppler current profilers, wave/tide gauges, temperature sensors, salinity sensors, turbidity sensors, chemical sensors) mounted on the seabed or on moorings, water-column profilers with similar suites of sensors, GPS-equipped Lagrangian surface drifters, drop and towed underwater video mapping systems, swath acoustic mapping systems, airborne and space-based remote sensing imagery, and physics-based numerical models.
- Data
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Modeled effects of depth and semidiurnal temperature fluctuations on predictions of year that coral reef locations reach annual severe bleaching for various global climate model projections
Using global climate model projections of sea-surface temperature at coral reef sites, we modeled the effects of depth and exposure to semidiurnal temperature fluctuations to examine how these effects may alter the projected year of annual severe bleaching for coral reef sites globally. Here we present the first global maps of the effects these processes have on bleaching projections for three IPCCoral reef profiles for wave-runup prediction
This data release includes representative cluster profiles (RCPs) from a large (>24,000) selection of coral reef topobathymetric cross-shore profiles (Scott and others, 2020). We used statistics, machine learning, and numerical modelling to develop the set of RCPs, which can be used to accurately represent the shoreline hydrodynamics of a large variety of coral reef-lined coasts around the globModel parameter input files to compare wave-averaged versus wave-resolving XBeach coastal flooding models for coral reef-lined coasts
This data release includes the XBeach input data files used to evaluate the importance of explicitly modeling sea-swell waves for runup. This was examined using a 2D XBeach short wave-averaged (surfbeat, XB-SB) and a wave-resolving (non-hydrostatic, XB-NH) model of Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands. Results show that explicitly modelling the sea-swell componenDynamically downscaled future wave projections from SWAN model results for the main Hawaiian Islands
Projected wave climate trends from WAVEWATCH3 model output were used as input for nearshore wave models (for example, SWAN) for the main Hawaiian Islands to derive data and statistical measures (mean and top 5 percent values) of wave height, wave period, and wave direction for the recent past (1996-2005) and future projections (2026-2045 and 2085-2100). Three-hourly global climate model (GCM) windProjected flooding extents and depths based on 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year wave-energy return periods, with and without coral reefs, for the States of Hawaii and Florida, the Territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
This data release provides flooding extent polygons (flood masks) and depth values (flood points) based on wave-driven total water levels for 22 locations within the States of Hawaii and Florida, the Territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. For each of the 22 locations there are eight associated flood maskPhysics-based numerical circulation model outputs of ocean surface circulation during the 2010-2013 summer coral-spawning seasons in Maui Nui, Hawaii, USA
Here we present surface current results from a physics-based, 3-dimensional coupled ocean-atmosphere numerical model that was generated to understand coral larval dispersal patterns in Maui Nui, Hawaii, USA. The model was used to simulate coral larval dispersal patterns from a number of existing State-managed reefs and large tracks of reefs with high coral coverage that might be good candidates fo - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 25Internal tides can provide thermal refugia that will buffer some coral reefs from future global warming
Observations show ocean temperatures are rising due to climate change, resulting in a fivefold increase in the incidence of regional-scale coral bleaching events since the 1980s; analyses based on global climate models forecast bleaching will become an annual event for most of the world’s coral reefs within 30–50 yr. Internal waves at tidal frequencies can regularly flush reefs with cooler waters,The importance of explicitly modelling sea-swell waves for runup on reef-lined coasts
The importance of explicitly modelling sea-swell waves for runup was examined using a 2D XBeach short wave-averaged (surfbeat, “XB-SB”) and a wave-resolving (non-hydrostatic, “XB-NH”) model of Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands. Field observations on water levels, wave heights, and wave runup were used to drive and evaluate both models, which were subsequentlyHydro-morphological characterization of coral reefs for wave runup prediction
Many coral reef-lined coasts are low-lying with elevations 30,000) dataset of measured coral reef topobathymetric cross-shore profiles, statistics, machine learning, and numerical modeling to develop a set of representative cluster profiles (RCPs) that can be used to accurately represent the shoreline hydrodynamics of a large variety of coral reef-lined coasts around the globe. In two stages, thePulse sediment event does not impact the metabolism of a mixed coral reef community
Sedimentation can bury corals, cause physical abrasion, and alter both spectral intensity and quality; however, few studies have quantified the effects of sedimentation on coral reef metabolism in the context of episodic sedimentation events. Here, we present the first study to measure coral community metabolism - calcification and photosynthesis - in a manipulative mesocosm experiment simulatingThe major coral reefs of Maui Nui, Hawai‘i—distribution, physical characteristics, oceanographic controls, and environmental threats
Coral reefs are widely recognized as critical to Hawaiʻi’s economy, food resources, and protection from damaging storm waves. Yet overfishing, land-based pollution, and climate change are threatening the health and sustainability of those reefs, and accordingly, both the Federal and State governments have called for protection and effective management. In 2000, the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force stateRigorously valuing the role of U.S. coral reefs in coastal hazard risk reduction
The degradation of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, raises risks by increasing the exposure of coastal communities to flooding hazards. The protective services of these natural defenses are not assessed in the same rigorous economic terms as artificial defenses, such as seawalls, and therefore often are not considered in decision making. Here we combine engineering, ecologic, geospatialHyCReWW: A hybrid coral reef wave and water level metamodel
Wave-induced flooding is a major coastal hazard on tropical islands fronted by coral reefs. The variability of shape, size, and physical characteristics of the reefs across the globe make it difficult to obtain a parameterization of wave run-up, which is needed for risk assessments. Therefore, we developed the HyCReWW metamodel to predict wave run-up under a wide range of reef morphometric and offStream sediment geochemistry of four small drainages on the north shore of Kauai west of Hanalei
Geochemical compositions of fine-grained stream sediment from four drainages on the north shore of the island of Kauai, Hawaii, west of Hanalei and two back-beach sites were explored to increase understanding about land-based runoff and ecological risk from runoff to nearshore coral communities. Stream and beach sediment were collected between July 30 and August 2, 2016, and major, minor, and tracPhysical mechanisms influencing localized patterns of temperature variability and coral bleaching within a system of reef atolls
Interactions between oceanic and atmospheric processes within coral reefs can significantly alter local-scale ( 60%) over most of this system; however, the bleaching patterns were not uniform. Little is known about the processes governing thermodynamic variability within atolls, particularly those that are dominated by large amplitude tides. Here, we identify three mechanisms at Scott Reef that alMost atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding
Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its imCarbonate system parameters of an algal-dominated reef along west Maui
Constraining coral reef metabolism and carbon chemistry dynamics are fundamental for understanding and predicting reef vulnerability to rising coastal CO2 concentrations and decreasing seawater pH. However, few studies exist along reefs occupying densely inhabited shorelines with known input from land-based sources of pollution. The shallow coral reefs off Kahekili, West Maui, are exposed to nutriRigorously valuing the role of coral reefs in coastal protection: An example from Maui, Hawaii, U.S.A.
The degradation of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, raises risks by exposing communities to flooding hazards. The protective services of these natural defenses are not assessed in the same rigorous, economic terms as artificial defenses such as seawalls, and therefore often not considered in decision-making. Here we present a new methodology that combines economic, ecological, and engin