Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Earthquake Effects in the Coastal Zone Active
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.
Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.
Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Source processes for the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazards
The global aftershock zone
Book review: Three great tsunamis: Lisbon (1755), Sumatra-Andaman (2004), and Japan (2011)
Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards
Stress, distance, magnitude, and clustering influences on the success or failure of an aftershock forecast: the 2013 M 6.6 Lushan earthquake and other examples
Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M=6.0 West Napa earthquake
New imaging of submarine landslides from the 1964 earthquake near Whittier, Alaska, and a comparison to failures in other Alaskan fjords
Explanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model
Earthquake mechanism and seafloor deformation for tsunami generation
Advances in natural hazard science and assessment, 1963-2013
Tsunami flooding
Shear-wave velocity-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are FAQ associated with this project.
- Overview
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action. - Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 115Source processes for the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazards
The importance of tsunami hazard assessment has increased in recent years as a result of catastrophic consequences from events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis. In particular, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) methods have been emphasized to include all possible ways a tsunami could be generated. Owing to the scarcity of tsunami observations, a computational approAuthorsEric L. Geist, Patrick J. LynettThe global aftershock zone
The aftershock zone of each large (M ≥ 7) earthquake extends throughout the shallows of planet Earth. Most aftershocks cluster near the mainshock rupture, but earthquakes send out shivers in the form of seismic waves, and these temporary distortions are large enough to trigger other earthquakes at global range. The aftershocks that happen at great distance from their mainshock are often superposedAuthorsThomas E. Parsons, Margaret Segou, Warner MarzocchiBook review: Three great tsunamis: Lisbon (1755), Sumatra-Andaman (2004), and Japan (2011)
“Three Great Tsunamis: Lisbon (1755), Sumatra–Andaman (2004), and Japan (2011)” is published in Springer’s new series SpringerBriefs. According to Springer’s website, the SpringBriefs volumes are intended to provide “concise summaries of cutting-edge research and practical applications across a wide spectrum of fields”. Among the several categories considered for SpringerBriefs are in-depth case sAuthorsEric L. GeistUndersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards
The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are arAuthorsEric L. Geist, Thomas E. ParsonsStress, distance, magnitude, and clustering influences on the success or failure of an aftershock forecast: the 2013 M 6.6 Lushan earthquake and other examples
No abstract available.AuthorsThomas E. Parsons, M. SegouStress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M=6.0 West Napa earthquake
We calculate stress changes resulting from the M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill oAuthorsThomas E. Parsons, Margaret Segou, Volkan Sevilgen, Kevin Milner, Edward H. Field, Shinji Toda, Ross S. SteinNew imaging of submarine landslides from the 1964 earthquake near Whittier, Alaska, and a comparison to failures in other Alaskan fjords
The 1964 Alaska M w 9.2 earthquake triggered numerous submarine slope failures in fjords of southern Alaska. These failures generated local tsunamis, such as at Whittier, where they inundated the town within 4 min of the beginning of shaking. Run-up was up to 32 m, with 13 casualties. We collected new multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution sparker seismic data in Passage Canal, and we examined bAuthorsPeter J. Haeussler, Thomas E. Parsons, David P. Finlayson, Patrick J. Hart, Jason D. Chaytor, Holly F Ryan, Homa J. Lee, Keith A. Labay, Andrew Peterson, Lee LibertyExplanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model
Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is examined in terms of a branching process model. It previously was observed that there are more short interevent times between consecutive tsunami sources than expected from a stationary Poisson process. The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching process model is fitted to tsunami catalog events, using the earthquake magnitude of the causative eAuthorsEric L. GeistEarthquake mechanism and seafloor deformation for tsunami generation
Tsunamis are generated in the ocean by rapidly displacing the entire water column over a significant area. The potential energy resulting from this disturbance is balanced with the kinetic energy of the waves during propagation. Only a handful of submarine geologic phenomena can generate tsunamis: large-magnitude earthquakes, large landslides, and volcanic processes. Asteroid and subaerial landsliAuthorsEric L. Geist, David D. OglesbyAdvances in natural hazard science and assessment, 1963-2013
No abstract available.AuthorsMary Lou Zoback, Eric Geist, John Pallister, David P. Hill, Simon Young, Wendy McCauslandTsunami flooding
Panel 5 focused on tsunami flooding with an emphasis on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) as derived from its counterpart, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) that determines seismic ground-motion hazards. The Panel reviewed current practices in PTHA and determined the viability of extending the analysis to extreme design probabilities (i.e., 10-4 to 10-6). In addition to eAuthorsEric Geist, Henry Jones, Mark McBride, Randy FedorsShear-wave velocity-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential
Shear-wave velocity (Vs) offers a means to determine the seismic resistance of soil to liquefaction by a fundamental soil property. This paper presents the results of an 11-year international project to gather new Vs site data and develop probabilistic correlations for seismic soil liquefaction occurrence. Toward that objective, shear-wave velocity test sites were identified, and measurements madeAuthorsR. Kayen, R.E.S. Moss, E.M. Thompson, R.B. Seed, K.O. Cetin, A. Der Kiureghian, Y. Tanaka, K. Tokimatsu - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- FAQ
Below are FAQ associated with this project.