Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Earthquake Effects in the Coastal Zone Active
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.
Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.
Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Volcano collapse promoted by progressive strength reduction: New data from Mount St. Helens
Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
Distribution and tsunamigenic potential of submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico
Earth science: lasting earthquake legacy
Three‐dimensional model of Hellenic Arc deformation and origin of the Cretan uplift
Is there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?
Chapter 3 - Phenomenology of tsunamis: Statistical properties from generation to runup
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources
Can footwall unloading explain late Cenozoic uplift of the Sierra Nevada crest?
On near-source earthquake triggering
Assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast
Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are FAQ associated with this project.
- Overview
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action. - Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 115Volcano collapse promoted by progressive strength reduction: New data from Mount St. Helens
Rock shear strength plays a fundamental role in volcano flank collapse, yet pertinent data from modern collapse surfaces are rare. Using samples collected from the inferred failure surface of the massive 1980 collapse of Mount St. Helens (MSH), we determined rock shear strength via laboratory tests designed to mimic conditions in the pre-collapse edifice. We observed that the 1980 failure shear suAuthorsMark E. Reid, Terry E.C. Keith, Robert E. Kayen, Neal R. Iverson, Richard M. Iverson, Dianne BrienEstimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual evenAuthorsEric L. Geist, Thomas E. ParsonsDistribution and tsunamigenic potential of submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico
The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is a geologically diverse ocean basin that includes three distinct geologic provinces: a carbonate province, a salt province, and canyon to deep-sea fan province, all of which contain evidence of submarine mass movements. The threat of submarine landslides in the GOM as a generator of near-field damaging tsunamis has not been widely addressed. Submarine landslides in the GAuthorsJason D. Chaytor, David C. Twichell, Patrick Lynett, Eric L. GeistEarth science: lasting earthquake legacy
Earthquakes occur within continental tectonic plates as well as at plate boundaries. Do clusters of such mid-plate events constitute zones of continuing hazard, or are they aftershocks of long-past earthquakes? Early on the morning of 16 December 1811, an earthquake of about magnitude 7 shook the centre of the United States around a small town on the Mississippi called New Madrid. By 7 February 18AuthorsThomas E. ParsonsThree‐dimensional model of Hellenic Arc deformation and origin of the Cretan uplift
[1] The Hellenic Arc of Greece is the most seismically active part of Europe, but little is know about its mechanics. We modeled deformation along the arc using a finite element model. The model was intended to capture large‐scale 3‐D structure of Nubian plate subduction beneath the Aegean block and its deformational consequences. The shape of the interface was developed using mapped traces at theAuthorsAthanassios Ganas, Tom ParsonsIs there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?
The idea that faults rupture in repeated, characteristic earthquakes is central to most probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The concept is elegant in its simplicity, and if the same event has repeated itself multiple times in the past, we might anticipate the next. In practice however, assembling a fault-segmented characteristic earthquake rupture model can grow into a complex task laden with unquAuthorsThomas E. Parsons, Eric L. GeistChapter 3 - Phenomenology of tsunamis: Statistical properties from generation to runup
Observations related to tsunami generation, propagation, and runup are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. In the three coastal regimes considered (near-field broadside, near-field oblique, and far field), the observed maximum wave amplitude is associated with different parts of the tsunami wavefield. The maximum amplitude in the near-field broadside regime is most often associAuthorsEric L. GeistProbabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources
The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amAuthorsF.I. Gonzalez, E.L. Geist, B. Jaffe, U. Kanoglu, H. Mofjeld, C.E. Synolakis, V.V. Titov, D. Areas, D. Bellomo, D. Carlton, T. Horning, J. Johnson, J. Newman, T. Parsons, R. Peters, C. Peterson, G. Priest, A. Venturato, J. Weber, F. Wong, A. YalcinerCan footwall unloading explain late Cenozoic uplift of the Sierra Nevada crest?
Globally, normal-fault displacement bends and warps rift flanks upwards, as adjoining basins drop downwards. Perhaps the most evident manifestations are the flanks of the East African Rift, which cuts across the otherwise minimally deformed continent. Flank uplift was explained by Vening Meinesz (1950, Institut Royal Colonial Belge, Bulletin des Seances, v. 21, p. 539-552), who recognized that isoAuthorsG. A. Thompson, T. ParsonsOn near-source earthquake triggering
[1] When one earthquake triggers others nearby, what connects them? Two processes are observed: static stress change from fault offset and dynamic stress changes from passing seismic waves. In the near-source region (r ≤ 50 km for M ∼ 5 sources) both processes may be operating, and since both mechanisms are expected to raise earthquake rates, it is difficult to isolate them. We thus compare explosAuthorsT. Parsons, A.A. VelascoAssessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast
Estimating the likelihood of tsunamis occurring along the U.S. Atlantic coast critically depends on knowledge of tsunami source probability. We review available information on both earthquake and landslide probabilities from potential sources that could generate local and transoceanic tsunamis. Estimating source probability includes defining both size and recurrence distributions for earthquakes aAuthorsE.L. Geist, T. ParsonsUniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)
The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stressAuthorsE. H. Field, T. E. Dawson, K.R. Felzer, A. D. Frankel, V. Gupta, T.H. Jordan, T. Parsons, M.D. Petersen, R. S. Stein, R. J. Weldon, C.J. Wills - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- FAQ
Below are FAQ associated with this project.