Land managers face tremendous challenges in the future as drought and climate change alter the abundance, distribution, and interactions of plant species. These challenges will be especially daunting in the southwestern US, which is already experiencing elevated temperatures and prolonged droughts, resulting in reduced soil moisture in an already water-limited environment. These changes will negatively affect plant growth and may result in shifts of plant community composition and ecosystem function. The broad-scale effects of climate change and complex spatial heterogeneity of abiotic and biotic conditions across the southwestern U.S. makes it difficult to use site-specific data to assess climate-plant relationships. We are conducting regional cross-site analysis to identify at risk plant species, functional types, and plant communities that can help managers mitigate and adapt to shifts in plant community composition, distinguish changes due to climate versus land use, and construct future conservation policies.
Background & Importance
Recent elevated temperatures and prolonged droughts in many already water-limited regions
throughout the world, including the southwestern United States, are likely to intensify according to future climate-model projections. This warming and drying can negatively affect perennial vegetation and lead to the degradation of ecosystem properties. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is valuable to determine the long-term dynamics of plant species associated with historical conditions.
General Methods
For this research, we are determining how plant species and functional types across a wide range of ecosystems in the southwestern U.S. have changed with drought and elevated temperatures to inform predictions of future plant species assemblages. We are using a fusion of ground-based monitoring and remote sensing to assess plant responses. Because soils, landform, and geology have a strong influence on water-availability in this region, we are integrating these environmental characteristics to examine how they moderate climate-vegetation relationships at local to regional scales.
Important Results
We have completed analyses for the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, Chihuahuan, and Mojave Deserts. Results indicate the plant species and communities that are most vulnerable to climate change, and where on the landscape they are most susceptible. These results are being used to help land managers anticipate and prepare for reductions in water availability.
Future Directions
Future work involves: 1) comparing the long-term effects of climate with land-use, 2) coupling historical results with simulation modeling to predict future changes, and 3) understanding how climate-induced plant responses affect ecosystem function (e.g., soil erosion, carbon storage, and wildlife habitat).
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Colorado Plateau Futures: Understanding Agents of Change on the Colorado Plateau to Facilitate Collaborative Adaptation
Southwest Energy Development and Drought (SWEDD)
Dryland Forest Sustainability
RAMPS: Restoration Assessment & Monitoring Program for the Southwest
Big Sagebrush Ecosystem Response to Climate & Disturbance
- Overview
Land managers face tremendous challenges in the future as drought and climate change alter the abundance, distribution, and interactions of plant species. These challenges will be especially daunting in the southwestern US, which is already experiencing elevated temperatures and prolonged droughts, resulting in reduced soil moisture in an already water-limited environment. These changes will negatively affect plant growth and may result in shifts of plant community composition and ecosystem function. The broad-scale effects of climate change and complex spatial heterogeneity of abiotic and biotic conditions across the southwestern U.S. makes it difficult to use site-specific data to assess climate-plant relationships. We are conducting regional cross-site analysis to identify at risk plant species, functional types, and plant communities that can help managers mitigate and adapt to shifts in plant community composition, distinguish changes due to climate versus land use, and construct future conservation policies.
Background & Importance
Map of 2000 and 2010 perennial vegetation cover (left insets), and change in perennial vegetation cover between 2000 and 2010 following a period of extended drought. Abbreviations: DEVA = Death Valley National Park; JOTR = Joshua Tree National Park; MOJA = Mojave National Preserve. (Credit: Seth Munson, USGS. Public domain.) Recent elevated temperatures and prolonged droughts in many already water-limited regions
throughout the world, including the southwestern United States, are likely to intensify according to future climate-model projections. This warming and drying can negatively affect perennial vegetation and lead to the degradation of ecosystem properties. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is valuable to determine the long-term dynamics of plant species associated with historical conditions.
General Methods
For this research, we are determining how plant species and functional types across a wide range of ecosystems in the southwestern U.S. have changed with drought and elevated temperatures to inform predictions of future plant species assemblages. We are using a fusion of ground-based monitoring and remote sensing to assess plant responses. Because soils, landform, and geology have a strong influence on water-availability in this region, we are integrating these environmental characteristics to examine how they moderate climate-vegetation relationships at local to regional scales.
Important Results
We have completed analyses for the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, Chihuahuan, and Mojave Deserts. Results indicate the plant species and communities that are most vulnerable to climate change, and where on the landscape they are most susceptible. These results are being used to help land managers anticipate and prepare for reductions in water availability.
Future Directions
Future work involves: 1) comparing the long-term effects of climate with land-use, 2) coupling historical results with simulation modeling to predict future changes, and 3) understanding how climate-induced plant responses affect ecosystem function (e.g., soil erosion, carbon storage, and wildlife habitat).
- Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Colorado Plateau Futures: Understanding Agents of Change on the Colorado Plateau to Facilitate Collaborative Adaptation
The objective of this interdisciplinary research effort is to 1) characterize agents of change important to land management decision makers on the Colorado Plateau; 2) identify and analyze relationships between agents of change and key landscape attributes and processes; 3) collectively assess the influence of agents of change and attributes and processes on the services provided by the ecosystem...Southwest Energy Development and Drought (SWEDD)
Deserts of the southwestern US are replete with oil and gas deposits as well as sites for solar, wind, and geothermal energy production. In the past, many of these resources have been too expensive to develop, but increased demand and new technologies have led to an increase in exploration and development. However, desert ecosystems generally have low resilience to disturbance. More frequent...Dryland Forest Sustainability
Forests in the semiarid southwestern U.S. are expected to be highly vulnerable to increasing aridity anticipated with climate change. In particular, low elevation forests and the processes of tree regeneration and mortality are likely to be highly susceptible to climate change. This work seeks to characterize how, where and when forest ecosystems will change and identify management strategies to...RAMPS: Restoration Assessment & Monitoring Program for the Southwest
The Restoration Assessment and Monitoring Program for the Southwest (RAMPS) seeks to assist U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and other land management agencies in developing successful techniques for improving land condition in dryland ecosystems of the southwestern United States. Invasion by non-native species, wildfire, drought, and other disturbances are growing rapidly in extent and...Big Sagebrush Ecosystem Response to Climate & Disturbance
Big sagebrush ecosystems are a major component of landscapes in the western U.S. and provide vital habitat to a wide array of wildlife species. However, big sagebrush ecosystems have been dramatically impacted by disturbances in the past several decades. This collaborative research between USGS and the University of Wyoming focuses on understanding how climatic and soil conditions influence big... - Publications
- Partners