Hurricane Dorian - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Science Center Objects
Hurricane Dorian coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
Hurricane Dorian impacted a large portion of the U.S. Southeast coast, from Florida to North Carolina, from September 3-6, 2019. Storm surge reached 0.5 to 1.5 meters above predicted tides. Offshore wave heights in excess of 7 meters were observed near Cape Canaveral, FL and wave heights in excess of 8 meters were observed near Cape Hatteras, NC. These large waves contributed an additional 1-3 meters of wave runup at the shoreline. The combined effects of surge and storm-induced wave runup created elevated total water levels at the shoreline, causing extensive erosion of the beach and dunes.
Current response activities include:
Planned activities:
- Qualitative validation of coastal change forecast (coming soon)
- Post-storm lidar survey of open coast shoreline from Florida to Virginia
- Quantitative observations of coastal change (coming soon)
Forecast of Potential Coastal Change
The coastal change forecast model predicts the probability of where and how primary sand dunes along the coast will be impacted by water levels during a storm. This includes the combined effect of surge and wave runup. The color band closest to the shoreline is the probability of dune erosion, the middle color band is the probability that sand dunes will be overtopped by waves during the storm and the outer color band is the probability that the sand dunes will be completely inundated/flooded. The model forecast is available on the Coastal Change Hazards Portal and more information about the model can be found at: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/spcmsc/science/scenario-based-assessments-used-coastal-change-hazard-forecasts.
Pre-and Post-Storm Photo Comparisons
Below is an initial comparison of imagery collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2019 with similar imagery taken a few days after Hurricane Dorian passed near the coast. (https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/). These photos provide information about how the coast was impacted by the storm and can be used as validation for the model.
Forecasts showing the timing and magnitude of elevated water levels at the shoreline are available in real-time for the U.S. coastline from Florida through Maine in the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer.
If additional response activities are initiated by the Coastal Change Hazards team (lidar, photography, or ground surveys) updates will be posted here.
Find additional information and data for Hurricane Dorian, including inland and coastal flood data on the USGS Dorian website