Hurricane Florence - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Science Center Objects
Hurricane Florence coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
Forecast of Potential Coastal Change
The coastal change forecast model predicts the probability of where and how sand dunes along the coast will be impacted by water levels during a storm. This includes the combined effect of surge and wave runup. The color band closest to the shoreline is the probability of dune erosion, the middle color band is the probability that sand dunes will be overtopped by waves during the storm, and the outer color band is the probability that the sand dunes will be completely inundated/flooded. The model forecast is available on the Coastal Change Hazards Portal and more information about the model can be found at: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/spcmsc/science/scenario-based-assessments-used-coastal-change-hazard-forecasts.
Predicted probabilities of dune erosion (inner band), overwash (middle band), and inundation (outer band) for Hurricane Florence. Pictures are representative of coastal change observed during past storm events. (Public domain.)
Pre-and Post-Storm Photo Comparisons
Below is an initial comparison of imagery collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2018 with similar imagery taken a few days after Hurricane Florence’s landfall (https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/). These photos provide information about how the coast was impacted by the storm and can be used as validation for the model.
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Date published: January 18, 2018Status: ActiveForecasting Coastal Change
This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Contacts: Kara DoranAttribution: Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Region 2: South Atlantic-Gulf (Includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands), Region 4: Mississippi Basin, Region 6: Arkansas-Rio Grande-Texas-Gulf, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: January 17, 2018Status: ActiveNational Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards
Research to identify areas that are most vulnerable to coastal change hazards including beach and dune erosion, long-term shoreline change, and sea-level rise.
Attribution: Natural Hazards, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Region 1: North Atlantic-Appalachian, Region 2: South Atlantic-Gulf (Includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands), Region 4: Mississippi Basin, Region 6: Arkansas-Rio Grande-Texas-Gulf, Region 9: Columbia-Pacific Northwest, Region 11: Alaska, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Date published: September 11, 2018Elevated water levels from Hurricane Florence likely to impact Southeast Atlantic beaches and dunes for several days
The USGS Coastal Change Hazards storm team is predicting coastal change impacts due to the potential for high waves and storm surge along the Southeast Atlantic coast.