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Hydrological drought happens when there is unusually low flow in rivers and streams, as well as low levels in lakes, reservoirs, and groundwater. It usually follows meteorological drought, which occurs first when a lack of rainfall over a long period leads to a water shortage. Meteorological drought can be tracked using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) or the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These are used as predictors in our models. For more on the different types of drought and how we track droughts in rivers and streams, visit the USGS visualization website.
We use machine learning models to forecast streamflow drought by training them on 20- and 40-year periods of past streamflow, weather, and watershed data. For a summary of our methods and how we evaluate the models, see: Publication summarizing modeling methods and performance. Interactive guide showing how drought models work. Model input data, including daily weather, snow, soil moisture, and...
Any large-scale projects for mitigating drought in the U.S. would fall under the direction of the Bureau of Reclamation, which is the federal agency tasked with water management. While technically feasible, transporting surface water from flood areas (or the ocean) to drought areas faces many challenges including water rights, property rights, environmental impacts, and more. Then there's the...
To download data on past streamflow percentiles and droughts, please refer to this recent USGS article in Water Resource Research. Weekly streamflow drought observations, along with meteorological data and other factors used in forecasting models can be found at: https://doi.org/10.5066/P1X5VH96. In addition, the daily streamflow drought forecasts can be downloaded in parquet format from the River...
A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions that results in water-related problems. The amount of precipitation at a particular location varies from year to year, but over a period of years the average amount is fairly constant. In the deserts of the Southwest, the average precipitation is less than 3 inches per year. In contrast, the average precipitation in the Northwest is more than...
When watersheds have been modified due to human activities, it can be complex to characterize hydrological drought using streamflow percentiles. For example, in areas downstream of dams, streamflow that falls below normal percentiles may reflect drought in systems with irrigation and water supply reservoirs that store water from year to year. However, reservoirs are often managed together...
Rainfall in any form will provide some drought relief. A good analogy might be how medicine and illness relate to each other. A single dose of medicine can alleviate symptoms of illness, but it usually takes a sustained program of medication to cure an illness. Likewise, a single rainstorm will not break the drought, but it might provide temporary relief. A light to moderate shower will probably...
River DroughtCast is a new machine learning system that predicts streamflow droughts — specifically “streamflow” droughts when rivers and streams drop to unusually low levels— up to 90 days in advance. Each prediction comes with uncertainty information to help users understand the confidence level of the forecast.
River DroughtCast is a new machine learning system that predicts streamflow droughts — specifically “streamflow” droughts when rivers and streams drop to unusually low levels— up to 90 days in advance. Each prediction comes with uncertainty information to help users understand the confidence level of the forecast.
River DroughtCast delivers current streamflow drought conditions and weekly forecasts of streamflow drought at select streamgages with long-term, complete records across the lower 48 states (the conterminous U.S., or CONUS).
River DroughtCast delivers current streamflow drought conditions and weekly forecasts of streamflow drought at select streamgages with long-term, complete records across the lower 48 states (the conterminous U.S., or CONUS).
Drought Intensity Map compiled by the U.S. Drought Monitor for the area of NOAA's Colorado River Basin River Forecast Center, which includes part of the Great Basin drainage area in western Utah, for April 19, 2024.
Drought Intensity Map compiled by the U.S. Drought Monitor for the area of NOAA's Colorado River Basin River Forecast Center, which includes part of the Great Basin drainage area in western Utah, for April 19, 2024.
Station 01184100 Stony Brook near West Suffield, Connecticut.
Station 01184100 Stony Brook near West Suffield, Connecticut.
Station 01196588 Mill River at Cook Hill Rd. in Cheshire, Connecticut.
Photo shows dry river channel at location of staff gage.
Station 01196588 Mill River at Cook Hill Rd. in Cheshire, Connecticut.
Photo shows dry river channel at location of staff gage.
Natural resource managers face increasing challenges in dealing with drought. As competition for water increases between its various uses (water supply, energy demands, ecological services, recreation, and other environmental and ecological needs), our ability to forecast the onset and termination of drought becomes ever more important.
Natural resource managers face increasing challenges in dealing with drought. As competition for water increases between its various uses (water supply, energy demands, ecological services, recreation, and other environmental and ecological needs), our ability to forecast the onset and termination of drought becomes ever more important.
We use machine learning models to forecast streamflow drought by training them on 20- and 40-year periods of past streamflow, weather, and watershed data. For a summary of our methods and how we evaluate the models, see: Publication summarizing modeling methods and performance. Interactive guide showing how drought models work. Model input data, including daily weather, snow, soil moisture, and...
Any large-scale projects for mitigating drought in the U.S. would fall under the direction of the Bureau of Reclamation, which is the federal agency tasked with water management. While technically feasible, transporting surface water from flood areas (or the ocean) to drought areas faces many challenges including water rights, property rights, environmental impacts, and more. Then there's the...
To download data on past streamflow percentiles and droughts, please refer to this recent USGS article in Water Resource Research. Weekly streamflow drought observations, along with meteorological data and other factors used in forecasting models can be found at: https://doi.org/10.5066/P1X5VH96. In addition, the daily streamflow drought forecasts can be downloaded in parquet format from the River...
A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions that results in water-related problems. The amount of precipitation at a particular location varies from year to year, but over a period of years the average amount is fairly constant. In the deserts of the Southwest, the average precipitation is less than 3 inches per year. In contrast, the average precipitation in the Northwest is more than...
When watersheds have been modified due to human activities, it can be complex to characterize hydrological drought using streamflow percentiles. For example, in areas downstream of dams, streamflow that falls below normal percentiles may reflect drought in systems with irrigation and water supply reservoirs that store water from year to year. However, reservoirs are often managed together...
Rainfall in any form will provide some drought relief. A good analogy might be how medicine and illness relate to each other. A single dose of medicine can alleviate symptoms of illness, but it usually takes a sustained program of medication to cure an illness. Likewise, a single rainstorm will not break the drought, but it might provide temporary relief. A light to moderate shower will probably...
River DroughtCast is a new machine learning system that predicts streamflow droughts — specifically “streamflow” droughts when rivers and streams drop to unusually low levels— up to 90 days in advance. Each prediction comes with uncertainty information to help users understand the confidence level of the forecast.
River DroughtCast is a new machine learning system that predicts streamflow droughts — specifically “streamflow” droughts when rivers and streams drop to unusually low levels— up to 90 days in advance. Each prediction comes with uncertainty information to help users understand the confidence level of the forecast.
River DroughtCast delivers current streamflow drought conditions and weekly forecasts of streamflow drought at select streamgages with long-term, complete records across the lower 48 states (the conterminous U.S., or CONUS).
River DroughtCast delivers current streamflow drought conditions and weekly forecasts of streamflow drought at select streamgages with long-term, complete records across the lower 48 states (the conterminous U.S., or CONUS).
Drought Intensity Map compiled by the U.S. Drought Monitor for the area of NOAA's Colorado River Basin River Forecast Center, which includes part of the Great Basin drainage area in western Utah, for April 19, 2024.
Drought Intensity Map compiled by the U.S. Drought Monitor for the area of NOAA's Colorado River Basin River Forecast Center, which includes part of the Great Basin drainage area in western Utah, for April 19, 2024.
Station 01184100 Stony Brook near West Suffield, Connecticut.
Station 01184100 Stony Brook near West Suffield, Connecticut.
Station 01196588 Mill River at Cook Hill Rd. in Cheshire, Connecticut.
Photo shows dry river channel at location of staff gage.
Station 01196588 Mill River at Cook Hill Rd. in Cheshire, Connecticut.
Photo shows dry river channel at location of staff gage.
Natural resource managers face increasing challenges in dealing with drought. As competition for water increases between its various uses (water supply, energy demands, ecological services, recreation, and other environmental and ecological needs), our ability to forecast the onset and termination of drought becomes ever more important.
Natural resource managers face increasing challenges in dealing with drought. As competition for water increases between its various uses (water supply, energy demands, ecological services, recreation, and other environmental and ecological needs), our ability to forecast the onset and termination of drought becomes ever more important.