Yellowstone is not overdue for an eruption. Volcanoes do not work in predictable ways and their eruptions do not follow predictable schedules. Even so, the math doesn’t work out for the volcano to be “overdue” for an eruption. In terms of large explosions, Yellowstone has experienced three at 2.08, 1.3, and 0.631 million years ago. This comes out to an average of about 725,000 years between eruptions. That being the case, there is still about 100,000 years to go, but this is based on the average of just two time intervals between the eruptions, which is meaningless.
Most volcanic systems that have a supereruption do not have them multiple times. When supereruptions do occur more than once in a volcanic system, they are not evenly spaced in time.
Although another catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone is possible, scientists are not convinced that one will ever happen. The rhyolite magma chamber beneath Yellowstone is only 5-15% molten (the rest is solidified but still hot), so it is unclear if there is even enough magma beneath the caldera to feed an eruption.
If Yellowstone does erupt again, it need not be a large eruption. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone was a lava flow that occurred 70,000 years ago.
Learn more: Yellowstone Volcano Observatory
Related Content
When will the next large earthquake occur in Yellowstone?
Earthquakes cannot be predicted yet, but modern surveillance for earthquakes in Yellowstone conducted with seismographs (instruments that measure earthquake locations and magnitudes) and GPS - Global Positioning Systems (instruments that measure slow ground movements) help scientists understand the state of stress in the Earth's crust. Those stresses could trigger earthquakes as well as magma...
What is a supervolcano? What is a supereruption?
The term "supervolcano" implies a volcanic center that has had an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI), meaning that at one point in time it erupted more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of material. In the early 2000s, the term “supereruption” began being used as a catchy way to describe VEI 8 eruptions. Explosive events of this size erupt so much magma that...
Why are there so many earthquakes at Yellowstone?
Almost all earthquakes at Yellowstone are brittle-failure events caused when rocks break due to crustal stresses. Though we've been looking at Yellowstone for years, no one has yet identified "long-period (LP) events" commonly attributed to magma movement. If LP events are observed, that will NOT mean Yellowstone is getting ready to erupt. LP earthquakes commonly occur at other volcanoes in the...
When was the last time Yellowstone erupted?
The most recent volcanic activity at Yellowstone consisted of rhyolitic lava flows that erupted approximately 70,000 years ago. The largest of these flows formed the Pitchstone Plateau in southwestern Yellowstone National Park. Learn more: Yellowstone Eruption History The evolution of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcani Field: Past, present, and future!
How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption?
Since the most recent giant (caldera-forming) eruption 631,000 years ago, approximately 80 relatively nonexplosive eruptions have occurred. Of these eruptions, at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the caldera, 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the caldera, and 40 were basalt vents outside the caldera. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau...
How big is the magma chamber under Yellowstone?
Yellowstone is underlain by two magma bodies. The shallower one is composed of rhyolite (a high-silica rock type) and stretches from 5 km to about 17 km (3 to 10 mi) beneath the surface and is about 90 km (55 mi) long and about 40 km (25 mi) wide. The chamber is mostly solid, with only about 5-15% melt. The deeper reservoir is composed of basalt (a low-silica rock type) and extends from 20 to 50...
What is the difference between "magma" and "lava"?
Scientists use the term magma for molten rock that is underground and lava for molten rock that breaks through the Earth's surface.
Volcano and earthquake monitoring plan for the Yellowstone Caldera system, 2022–2032
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 2020 annual report
2018 update to the U.S. Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment
When erupting, all volcanoes pose a degree of risk to people and infrastructure, however, the risks are not equivalent from one volcano to another because of differences in eruptive style and geographic location. Assessing the relative threats posed by U.S. volcanoes identifies which volcanoes warrant the greatest risk-mitigation efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey and its partners. This update
Geologic field-trip guide to the volcanic and hydrothermal landscape of the Yellowstone Plateau
U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program—Assess, forecast, prepare, engage
Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory
Steam explosions, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions -- what's in Yellowstone's future?
Tracking changes in Yellowstone's restless volcanic system
Related Content
- FAQ
When will the next large earthquake occur in Yellowstone?
Earthquakes cannot be predicted yet, but modern surveillance for earthquakes in Yellowstone conducted with seismographs (instruments that measure earthquake locations and magnitudes) and GPS - Global Positioning Systems (instruments that measure slow ground movements) help scientists understand the state of stress in the Earth's crust. Those stresses could trigger earthquakes as well as magma...
What is a supervolcano? What is a supereruption?
The term "supervolcano" implies a volcanic center that has had an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI), meaning that at one point in time it erupted more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of material. In the early 2000s, the term “supereruption” began being used as a catchy way to describe VEI 8 eruptions. Explosive events of this size erupt so much magma that...
Why are there so many earthquakes at Yellowstone?
Almost all earthquakes at Yellowstone are brittle-failure events caused when rocks break due to crustal stresses. Though we've been looking at Yellowstone for years, no one has yet identified "long-period (LP) events" commonly attributed to magma movement. If LP events are observed, that will NOT mean Yellowstone is getting ready to erupt. LP earthquakes commonly occur at other volcanoes in the...
When was the last time Yellowstone erupted?
The most recent volcanic activity at Yellowstone consisted of rhyolitic lava flows that erupted approximately 70,000 years ago. The largest of these flows formed the Pitchstone Plateau in southwestern Yellowstone National Park. Learn more: Yellowstone Eruption History The evolution of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcani Field: Past, present, and future!
How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption?
Since the most recent giant (caldera-forming) eruption 631,000 years ago, approximately 80 relatively nonexplosive eruptions have occurred. Of these eruptions, at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the caldera, 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the caldera, and 40 were basalt vents outside the caldera. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau...
How big is the magma chamber under Yellowstone?
Yellowstone is underlain by two magma bodies. The shallower one is composed of rhyolite (a high-silica rock type) and stretches from 5 km to about 17 km (3 to 10 mi) beneath the surface and is about 90 km (55 mi) long and about 40 km (25 mi) wide. The chamber is mostly solid, with only about 5-15% melt. The deeper reservoir is composed of basalt (a low-silica rock type) and extends from 20 to 50...
What is the difference between "magma" and "lava"?
Scientists use the term magma for molten rock that is underground and lava for molten rock that breaks through the Earth's surface.
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Volcano and earthquake monitoring plan for the Yellowstone Caldera system, 2022–2032
Executive SummaryThe Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a consortium of nine Federal, State, and academic agencies that: (1) provides timely monitoring and hazards assessment of volcanic, hydrothermal, and earthquake activity in and around Yellowstone National Park, and (2) conducts research to develop new approaches to volcano monitoring and better understand volcanic activity in the YellowYellowstone Volcano Observatory 2020 annual report
The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) monitors volcanic and hydrothermal activity associated with the Yellowstone magmatic system, conducts research into magmatic processes occurring beneath Yellowstone Caldera, and issues timely warnings and guidance related to potential future geologic hazards. This report summarizes the activities and findings of YVO during the year 2020, focusing on the YeAuthors2018 update to the U.S. Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment
When erupting, all volcanoes pose a degree of risk to people and infrastructure, however, the risks are not equivalent from one volcano to another because of differences in eruptive style and geographic location. Assessing the relative threats posed by U.S. volcanoes identifies which volcanoes warrant the greatest risk-mitigation efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey and its partners. This update
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Yellowstone National Park, a nearly 9,000 km2 (~3,468 mi2) area, was preserved in 1872 as the world’s first national park for its unique, extraordinary, and magnificent natural features. Rimmed by a crescent of older mountainous terrain, Yellowstone National Park has at its core the Quaternary Yellowstone Plateau, an undulating landscape shaped by forces of late Cenozoic explosive and effusive volAuthorsLisa Ann Morgan Morzel, W. C. Pat Shanks, Jacob B. Lowenstern, Jamie M. Farrell, Joel E. RobinsonU.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program—Assess, forecast, prepare, engage
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The Yellowstone Plateau hosts an active volcanic system, with subterranean magma (molten rock), boiling, pressurized waters, and a variety of active faults with significant earthquake hazards. Within the next few decades, light-to-moderate earthquakes and steam explosions are certain to occur. Volcanic eruptions are less likely, but are ultimately inevitable in this active volcanic region. This doAuthorsSteam explosions, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions -- what's in Yellowstone's future?
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No abstract available.AuthorsPeter H. Stauffer - News