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Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption? When will Yellowstone erupt?

Yellowstone is not overdue for an eruption. Volcanoes do not work in predictable ways and their eruptions do not follow predictable schedules. Even so, the math doesn’t work out for the volcano to be “overdue” for an eruption. In terms of large explosions, Yellowstone has experienced three at 2.08, 1.3, and 0.631 million years ago. This comes out to an average of about 725,000 years between eruptions. That being the case, there is still about 100,000 years to go, but this is based on the average of just two numbers, which is meaningless.

Most volcanic systems that have a supereruption do not have them multiple times. When supereruptions do occur more than once in a volcanic system, they are not evenly spaced in time.

Although another catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone is possible, scientists are not convinced that one will ever happen. The rhyolite magma chamber beneath Yellowstone is only 5-15% molten (the rest is solidified but still hot), so it is unclear if there is even enough magma beneath the caldera to feed an eruption.

If Yellowstone does erupt again, it need not be a large eruption. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone was a lava flow that occurred 70,000 years ago.

Learn more: Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

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Earthquake damage from the 1959 Hebgen Lake event in the Yellowston...

When will the next large earthquake occur in Yellowstone?

Earthquakes cannot be predicted yet, but modern surveillance conducted with seismographs (instruments that measure earthquake locations and magnitudes) and Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments that measure slow ground movements help scientists understand the state of stress in the Earth's crust. Those stresses could trigger earthquakes as well as magma movement.Yellowstone lies within a...

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When will the next large earthquake occur in Yellowstone?

Earthquakes cannot be predicted yet, but modern surveillance conducted with seismographs (instruments that measure earthquake locations and magnitudes) and Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments that measure slow ground movements help scientists understand the state of stress in the Earth's crust. Those stresses could trigger earthquakes as well as magma movement.Yellowstone lies within a...

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Aerial view of the caldera of Mt Tambora, island of Sumbawa, Indonesia.

What is a supervolcano? What is a supereruption?

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What is a supervolcano? What is a supereruption?

The term "supervolcano" implies a volcanic center that has had an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI), meaning that at one point in time it erupted more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of material. In the early 2000s, the term “supereruption” began being used as a catchy way to describe VEI 8 eruptions. Explosive events of this size erupt so much magma that...

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Buffalo at Yellowstone National Park

Why are there so many earthquakes at Yellowstone?

Almost all earthquakes at Yellowstone are brittle-failure events caused when rocks break due to crustal stresses. Though we've been looking at Yellowstone for years, no one has yet identified "long-period (LP) events" commonly attributed to magma movement. If LP events are observed, that will NOT mean Yellowstone is getting ready to erupt. LP earthquakes commonly occur at other volcanoes in the...

link

Why are there so many earthquakes at Yellowstone?

Almost all earthquakes at Yellowstone are brittle-failure events caused when rocks break due to crustal stresses. Though we've been looking at Yellowstone for years, no one has yet identified "long-period (LP) events" commonly attributed to magma movement. If LP events are observed, that will NOT mean Yellowstone is getting ready to erupt. LP earthquakes commonly occur at other volcanoes in the...

Learn More
link
Image: Active Lava Flow

When was the last time Yellowstone erupted?

The most recent volcanic activity at Yellowstone consisted of rhyolitic lava flows that erupted approximately 70,000 years ago. The largest of these flows formed the Pitchstone Plateau in southwestern Yellowstone National Park.Learn more:Yellowstone Eruption HistoryThe evolution of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcani Field: Past, present, and future!

link

When was the last time Yellowstone erupted?

The most recent volcanic activity at Yellowstone consisted of rhyolitic lava flows that erupted approximately 70,000 years ago. The largest of these flows formed the Pitchstone Plateau in southwestern Yellowstone National Park.Learn more:Yellowstone Eruption HistoryThe evolution of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcani Field: Past, present, and future!

Learn More
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Image shows billowing clouds of steam and smoke emanating from the ground

How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption?

Since the most recent giant (caldera-forming) eruption 631,000 years ago, approximately 80 relatively nonexplosive eruptions have occurred. Of these eruptions, at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the caldera, 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the caldera, and 40 were basalt vents outside the caldera. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau...

link

How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption?

Since the most recent giant (caldera-forming) eruption 631,000 years ago, approximately 80 relatively nonexplosive eruptions have occurred. Of these eruptions, at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the caldera, 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the caldera, and 40 were basalt vents outside the caldera. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau...

Learn More
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Old Faithful Geyser in eruption

How big is the magma chamber under Yellowstone?

Yellowstone is underlain by two magma bodies. The shallower one is composed of rhyolite (a high-silica rock type) and stretches from 5 km to about 17 km (3 to 10 mi) beneath the surface and is about 90 km (55 mi) long and about 40 km (25 mi) wide. The chamber is mostly solid, with only about 5-15% melt. The deeper reservoir is composed of basalt (a low-silica rock type) and extends from 20 to 50...

link

How big is the magma chamber under Yellowstone?

Yellowstone is underlain by two magma bodies. The shallower one is composed of rhyolite (a high-silica rock type) and stretches from 5 km to about 17 km (3 to 10 mi) beneath the surface and is about 90 km (55 mi) long and about 40 km (25 mi) wide. The chamber is mostly solid, with only about 5-15% melt. The deeper reservoir is composed of basalt (a low-silica rock type) and extends from 20 to 50...

Learn More
link
Lava splashes from a lava lake.

What is the difference between "magma" and "lava"?

Scientists use the term magma for molten rock that is underground and lava for molten rock that breaks through the Earth's surface.

link

What is the difference between "magma" and "lava"?

Scientists use the term magma for molten rock that is underground and lava for molten rock that breaks through the Earth's surface.

Learn More
boiling water and white steam blasting up out of erupting geyser with snow on the ground
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Image: Eruption of Old Faithful Geyser
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video thumbnail: Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (Part 2 of 3)
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Scenery: Valley surrounded by forested mountains. Multiple wisps of steam rise from the valley floor at various locations.
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Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 2020 annual report

The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) monitors volcanic and hydrothermal activity associated with the Yellowstone magmatic system, conducts research into magmatic processes occurring beneath Yellowstone Caldera, and issues timely warnings and guidance related to potential future geologic hazards. This report summarizes the activities and findings of YVO during the year 2020, focusing on the Ye
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2018 update to the U.S. Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment

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Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

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Steam explosions, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions -- what's in Yellowstone's future?

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    Earthquake damage from the 1959 Hebgen Lake event in the Yellowston...

    When will the next large earthquake occur in Yellowstone?

    Earthquakes cannot be predicted yet, but modern surveillance conducted with seismographs (instruments that measure earthquake locations and magnitudes) and Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments that measure slow ground movements help scientists understand the state of stress in the Earth's crust. Those stresses could trigger earthquakes as well as magma movement.Yellowstone lies within a...

    link

    When will the next large earthquake occur in Yellowstone?

    Earthquakes cannot be predicted yet, but modern surveillance conducted with seismographs (instruments that measure earthquake locations and magnitudes) and Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments that measure slow ground movements help scientists understand the state of stress in the Earth's crust. Those stresses could trigger earthquakes as well as magma movement.Yellowstone lies within a...

    Learn More
    link
    Aerial view of the caldera of Mt Tambora, island of Sumbawa, Indonesia.

    What is a supervolcano? What is a supereruption?

    The term "supervolcano" implies a volcanic center that has had an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI), meaning that at one point in time it erupted more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of material. In the early 2000s, the term “supereruption” began being used as a catchy way to describe VEI 8 eruptions. Explosive events of this size erupt so much magma that...

    link

    What is a supervolcano? What is a supereruption?

    The term "supervolcano" implies a volcanic center that has had an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI), meaning that at one point in time it erupted more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of material. In the early 2000s, the term “supereruption” began being used as a catchy way to describe VEI 8 eruptions. Explosive events of this size erupt so much magma that...

    Learn More
    link
    Buffalo at Yellowstone National Park

    Why are there so many earthquakes at Yellowstone?

    Almost all earthquakes at Yellowstone are brittle-failure events caused when rocks break due to crustal stresses. Though we've been looking at Yellowstone for years, no one has yet identified "long-period (LP) events" commonly attributed to magma movement. If LP events are observed, that will NOT mean Yellowstone is getting ready to erupt. LP earthquakes commonly occur at other volcanoes in the...

    link

    Why are there so many earthquakes at Yellowstone?

    Almost all earthquakes at Yellowstone are brittle-failure events caused when rocks break due to crustal stresses. Though we've been looking at Yellowstone for years, no one has yet identified "long-period (LP) events" commonly attributed to magma movement. If LP events are observed, that will NOT mean Yellowstone is getting ready to erupt. LP earthquakes commonly occur at other volcanoes in the...

    Learn More
    link
    Image: Active Lava Flow

    When was the last time Yellowstone erupted?

    The most recent volcanic activity at Yellowstone consisted of rhyolitic lava flows that erupted approximately 70,000 years ago. The largest of these flows formed the Pitchstone Plateau in southwestern Yellowstone National Park.Learn more:Yellowstone Eruption HistoryThe evolution of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcani Field: Past, present, and future!

    link

    When was the last time Yellowstone erupted?

    The most recent volcanic activity at Yellowstone consisted of rhyolitic lava flows that erupted approximately 70,000 years ago. The largest of these flows formed the Pitchstone Plateau in southwestern Yellowstone National Park.Learn more:Yellowstone Eruption HistoryThe evolution of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcani Field: Past, present, and future!

    Learn More
    link
    Image shows billowing clouds of steam and smoke emanating from the ground

    How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption?

    Since the most recent giant (caldera-forming) eruption 631,000 years ago, approximately 80 relatively nonexplosive eruptions have occurred. Of these eruptions, at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the caldera, 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the caldera, and 40 were basalt vents outside the caldera. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau...

    link

    How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption?

    Since the most recent giant (caldera-forming) eruption 631,000 years ago, approximately 80 relatively nonexplosive eruptions have occurred. Of these eruptions, at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the caldera, 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the caldera, and 40 were basalt vents outside the caldera. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau...

    Learn More
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    Old Faithful Geyser in eruption

    How big is the magma chamber under Yellowstone?

    Yellowstone is underlain by two magma bodies. The shallower one is composed of rhyolite (a high-silica rock type) and stretches from 5 km to about 17 km (3 to 10 mi) beneath the surface and is about 90 km (55 mi) long and about 40 km (25 mi) wide. The chamber is mostly solid, with only about 5-15% melt. The deeper reservoir is composed of basalt (a low-silica rock type) and extends from 20 to 50...

    link

    How big is the magma chamber under Yellowstone?

    Yellowstone is underlain by two magma bodies. The shallower one is composed of rhyolite (a high-silica rock type) and stretches from 5 km to about 17 km (3 to 10 mi) beneath the surface and is about 90 km (55 mi) long and about 40 km (25 mi) wide. The chamber is mostly solid, with only about 5-15% melt. The deeper reservoir is composed of basalt (a low-silica rock type) and extends from 20 to 50...

    Learn More
    link
    Lava splashes from a lava lake.

    What is the difference between "magma" and "lava"?

    Scientists use the term magma for molten rock that is underground and lava for molten rock that breaks through the Earth's surface.

    link

    What is the difference between "magma" and "lava"?

    Scientists use the term magma for molten rock that is underground and lava for molten rock that breaks through the Earth's surface.

    Learn More
  • Multimedia
    boiling water and white steam blasting up out of erupting geyser with snow on the ground
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    Image: Eruption of Old Faithful Geyser
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    video thumbnail: Yes! Yellowstone is a Volcano (Part 1 of 3)
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    video thumbnail: Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (Part 2 of 3)
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    video thumbnail: Yellowstone Eruptions (Part 3 of 3)
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    Scenery: Valley surrounded by forested mountains. Multiple wisps of steam rise from the valley floor at various locations.
    link
  • Publications

    Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 2020 annual report

    The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) monitors volcanic and hydrothermal activity associated with the Yellowstone magmatic system, conducts research into magmatic processes occurring beneath Yellowstone Caldera, and issues timely warnings and guidance related to potential future geologic hazards. This report summarizes the activities and findings of YVO during the year 2020, focusing on the Ye
    By
    Volcano Hazards, Volcano Science Center

    2018 update to the U.S. Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment

    When erupting, all volcanoes pose a degree of risk to people and infrastructure, however, the risks are not equivalent from one volcano to another because of differences in eruptive style and geographic location. Assessing the relative threats posed by U.S. volcanoes identifies which volcanoes warrant the greatest risk-mitigation efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey and its partners. This update
    By
    Volcano Hazards, Volcano Science Center

    Geologic field-trip guide to the volcanic and hydrothermal landscape of the Yellowstone Plateau

    Yellowstone National Park, a nearly 9,000 km2 (~3,468 mi2) area, was preserved in 1872 as the world’s first national park for its unique, extraordinary, and magnificent natural features. Rimmed by a crescent of older mountainous terrain, Yellowstone National Park has at its core the Quaternary Yellowstone Plateau, an undulating landscape shaped by forces of late Cenozoic explosive and effusive vol
    By
    Volcano Hazards, Volcano Science Center

    U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program—Assess, forecast, prepare, engage

    At least 170 volcanoes in 12 States and 2 territories have erupted in the past 12,000 years and have the potential to erupt again. Consequences of eruptions from U.S. volcanoes can extend far beyond the volcano’s immediate area. Many aspects of our daily life are vulnerable to volcano hazards, including air travel, regional power generation and transmission infrastructure, interstate transportatio
    By
    Natural Hazards, Volcano Hazards, Volcano Science Center

    Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

    The Yellowstone Plateau hosts an active volcanic system, with subterranean magma (molten rock), boiling, pressurized waters, and a variety of active faults with significant earthquake hazards. Within the next few decades, light-to-moderate earthquakes and steam explosions are certain to occur. Volcanic eruptions are less likely, but are ultimately inevitable in this active volcanic region. This do
    By
    Volcano Hazards, Volcano Science Center

    Steam explosions, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions -- what's in Yellowstone's future?

    Yellowstone, one of the world’s largest active volcanic systems, has produced several giant volcanic eruptions in the past few million years, as well as many smaller eruptions and steam explosions. Although no eruptions of lava or volcanic ash have occurred for many thousands of years, future eruptions are likely. In the next few hundred years, hazards will most probably be limited to ongoing geys
    By
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    No abstract available.
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  • News
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    EarthWord–Phreatic Eruption

    This EarthWord is straight up steampunk...

    Read Article
    link

    Study to Uncover Yellowstone’s Subsurface Mysteries

    New study investigates groundwater from the air

    Read Article