Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption? When will Yellowstone erupt?
Yellowstone is not overdue for an eruption. Volcanoes do not work in predictable ways and their eruptions do not follow predictable schedules. Even so, the math doesn’t work out for the volcano to be “overdue” for an eruption. In terms of large explosions, Yellowstone has experienced three at 2.08, 1.3, and 0.631 million years ago. This comes out to an average of about 725,000 years between eruptions. That being the case, there is still about 100,000 years to go, but this is based on the average of just two numbers, which is meaningless.
Most volcanic systems that have a supereruption do not have them multiple times. When supereruptions do occur more than once in a volcanic system, they are not evenly spaced in time.
Although another catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone is possible, scientists are not convinced that one will ever happen. The rhyolite magma chamber beneath Yellowstone is only 5-15% molten (the rest is solidified but still hot), so it is unclear if there is even enough magma beneath the caldera to feed an eruption.
If Yellowstone does erupt again, it need not be a large eruption. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone was a lava flow that occurred 70,000 years ago.
Learn more: Yellowstone Volcano Observatory
Related Content
When will the next large earthquake occur in Yellowstone?
What is a supervolcano? What is a supereruption?
Why are there so many earthquakes at Yellowstone?
When was the last time Yellowstone erupted?
How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption?
How big is the magma chamber under Yellowstone?
What is the difference between "magma" and "lava"?
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 2020 annual report
The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) monitors volcanic and hydrothermal activity associated with the Yellowstone magmatic system, conducts research into magmatic processes occurring beneath Yellowstone Caldera, and issues timely warnings and guidance related to potential future geologic hazards. This report summarizes the activities and...
2018 update to the U.S. Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment
When erupting, all volcanoes pose a degree of risk to people and infrastructure, however, the risks are not equivalent from one volcano to another because of differences in eruptive style and geographic location. Assessing the relative threats posed by U.S. volcanoes identifies which volcanoes warrant the greatest risk-mitigation efforts by the U....
Ewert, John W.; Diefenbach, Angela K.; Ramsey, David W.
Geologic field-trip guide to the volcanic and hydrothermal landscape of the Yellowstone Plateau
Yellowstone National Park, a nearly 9,000 km2 (~3,468 mi2) area, was preserved in 1872 as the world’s first national park for its unique, extraordinary, and magnificent natural features. Rimmed by a crescent of older mountainous terrain, Yellowstone National Park has at its core the Quaternary Yellowstone Plateau, an undulating landscape...
Morgan Morzel, Lisa Ann; Shanks, W. C. Pat; Lowenstern, Jacob B.; Farrell, Jamie M.; Robinson, Joel E.
U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program—Assess, forecast, prepare, engage
At least 170 volcanoes in 12 States and 2 territories have erupted in the past 12,000 years and have the potential to erupt again. Consequences of eruptions from U.S. volcanoes can extend far beyond the volcano’s immediate area. Many aspects of our daily life are vulnerable to volcano hazards, ...
Stovall, Wendy K.; Wilkins, Aleeza M.; Mandeville, Charles W.; Driedger, Carolyn L.
Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory
The Yellowstone Plateau hosts an active volcanic system, with subterranean magma (molten rock), boiling, pressurized waters, and a variety of active faults with significant earthquake hazards. Within the next few decades, light-to-moderate earthquakes and steam explosions are certain to occur. Volcanic eruptions are less likely, but are ultimately...
Steam explosions, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions -- what's in Yellowstone's future?
Yellowstone, one of the world’s largest active volcanic systems, has produced several giant volcanic eruptions in the past few million years, as well as many smaller eruptions and steam explosions. Although no eruptions of lava or volcanic ash have occurred for many thousands of years, future eruptions are likely. In the next few hundred years,...
Lowenstern, Jacob B.; Christiansen, Robert L.; Smith, Robert B.; Morgan, Lisa A.; Heasler, Henry
Tracking changes in Yellowstone's restless volcanic system
No abstract available.
Stauffer, Peter H.
Study to Uncover Yellowstone’s Subsurface Mysteries
New study investigates groundwater from the air
Old Faithful Geyser, Yellowstone
Old Faithful Geyser erupts on a clear winter day in Yellowstone National Park
Forecasting Ashfall Impacts from a Yellowstone Supereruption
- Yellowstone is one of a few dozen volcanoes on earth capable of "supereruptions" that expel more than 1,000 cubic km of ash and debris.
- The plumes from such eruptions can rise 30 to 50 km into the atmosphere, three to five times as high as most jets fly.
- Yellowstone has produced three supereruptions in the past 2.1 million years. The most recent was
The Yellowstone Volcano: Past, Present and Future
Public Lecture on Yellowstone Volcano by Jake Lowenstern at Menlo Park, CA on January 23, 2014. The Q&A at the end of the talk can be found on the original source video (Source URL).
Eruption of Old Faithful Geyser
Visitors watching an eruption of Old Faithful Geyser from the Old Faithful Inn's balcony.
Yellowstone Eruptions (Part 3 of 3)
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers
the following questions to explain volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone: When was the last supereruption at
Yellowstone?", "Have any eruptions occurred since the last supereruption?", "Is Yellowstone overdue for
an eruption?", "What does the magma below indicate about a
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (Part 2 of 3)
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers
the following questions to provide a tour of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory: "What is YVO?", "How
do you monitor volcanic activity at Yellowstone?", "How are satellites used to study deformation?", "Do
you monitor geysers or any other aspect of the Park?", "Are
Yes! Yellowstone is a Volcano (Part 1 of 3)
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers
the following questions to explain volcanic features at Yellowstone: "How do we know Yellowstone is a
volcano?", "What is a Supervolcano?", "What is a Caldera?","Why are there geysers at Yellowstone?",
and "What are the other geologic hazards in Yellowstone?"
View
Upper Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park
Aerial view of Upper Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park