Lucas Bair
Lucas Bair is an economist with the Southwest Biological Science Center.
Science and Products
Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows
Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...
Economics of Outdoor Recreation
Economic research at Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center is used to determine economic benefits of outdoor recreation in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area below Glen Canyon Dam and in Grand Canyon National Park, as affected by operation of Glen Canyon Dam. This research identifies recreationists’ preferences for attributes associated with their trips, spending that occurs regionally...
Evaluations of FSim burn probability maps for pyromes of the conterminous United States based on observed wildfire perimeters
The FSim wildfire simulation model is widely used to generate estimates of burn probability (BP). However, few studies have compared BP models to subsequent wildfires to assess their suitability for estimating near-future wildfire risk. Here, we compared the U.S.D.A. Forest Service’s publicly available BP map for the conterminous U.S. (Short et al., 2020; Dillon et al., 2023) to observed...
Predicted recreation economics under different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases
These data were compiled to predict economic impacts to angling in Glen Canyon and whitewater rafting in Grand Canyon. The objective of our study was to estimate recreation impacts, or changes in consumer surplus, under different future Interim Guidelines sEIS and LTEMP sEIS alternatives. These data include monthly impacts in nominal 2022 dollars. These data were created for operations...
Predicted hydropower impacts of different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases
These data were compiled to predict hourly Glen Canyon Dam operations and hydropower impacts. The objective of our study was to estimate hydropower impacts under different future LTEMP sEIS alternatives. These data represent hourly outflow in cubic feet per second, generation in megawatt hours, and economic value of hydropower in nominal dollars. These data were created for operations at...
The Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Inventory (ver. 2.0, September 2024)
The Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Wildland Fire and USGS created the The Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Inventory to meet the Monitoring, Maintenance, and Treatment Plan requirements under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). It provides an inventory of key national, regional, and state wildfire risk and fire hazard assessments useful for understanding different...
Human Factors of Water Availability in the Delaware River Basin
Human factors that influence water availability in the Basin were discovered by reviewing hundreds of published literature items and articles from the literature following an extensive keyword search. The different factors were drawn from reviewing the literature, and datasets to support the factor were researched across open data catalogs and the world wide web. Data related to the...
Human Factors of Water Availability in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Human factors that influence water availability in the Basin were discovered by reviewing hundreds of published literature items and articles from the literature following an extensive keyword search. The different factors were drawn from reviewing the literature, and datasets to support the factor were researched across open data catalogs and the world wide web. Data related to the...
Bioeconomic model population data, Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA
These data were estimated for use in the bioecomomic model simulation of the rainbow trout population in the Colorado River in Marble Canyon. The initial rainbow trout abundance is a vector (RBT_intN) representing the population of rainbow trout within each river segment (151 mile long sergments) along the mainstem of the Colorado River from Lees Ferry to 151 river miles downstream. The...
Grand Canyon Whitewater Boater Data, Convergent Validity between Willingness to Pay Elicitation Methods
These data were complied for the primary analysis underlying the results presented in the manuscript associated with these data (see Larger Work Citation). The data was collected from a 2015 survey of private party Grand Canyon boaters. The open document file contains 3 data sheets: 1) variables used in the Table 2 comparison of samples, 2) the core dichotomous choice contingent...
Grand Canyon Whitewater Boater Data, Temporal Stability of Willingness to Pay Values
These data were complied for the primary analysis underlying the resuts presented in Neher et al., Testing the Limits of Temporal Stability: Willingness to Pay Values Among Grand Canyon Whitewater Boaters across Decades. The data is a combination of data collected for a 1985 survey of private party Grand Canyon boaters, and a 2015 replication survey for that same recreational user group...
Filter Total Items: 24
Evaluating a simulation-based wildfire burn probability map for the conterminous US
BackgroundWildfire simulation models are used to derive maps of burn probability (BP) based on fuels, weather, topography and ignition locations, and BP maps are key components of wildfire risk assessments.AimsFew studies have compared BP maps with real-world fires to evaluate their suitability for near-future risk assessment. Here, we evaluated a BP map for the conterminous US based on...
Authors
Amanda Renee Carlson, Todd Hawbaker, Lucas Bair, Chad Michael Hoffman, James Meldrum, L. Scott Baggett, Paul F. Steblein
eZ flow metrics: Using z-scores to estimate deviations from natural flow in the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam
River flow patterns are primary drivers of lotic ecosystems, and hundreds of metrics have been developed to quantify flow attributes. Although existing metrics have been a powerful tool in designing environmental flows, they are often developed with specific resources in mind and are rarely directly comparable with each other (i.e., units are often different). Here, we focus on natural...
Authors
Emily C. Palmquist, Bridget Deemer, Anya Metcalfe, Theodore Kennedy, Lucas Bair, Helen C. Fairley, Paul Grams, Joel B. Sankey, Charles Yackulic
Resilient riverine social–ecological systems: A new paradigm to meet global conservation targets
The United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity set forth the 30 × 30 target, an agenda for countries to protect at least 30% of their terrestrial, inland water, and coastal and marine areas by 2030. With
Authors
Denielle M. Perry, Sarah J. Praskievicz, Ryan McManamay, Alark Saxena, K. C. Grimm, Nicholas Zegre, Lucas Bair, Benjamin L. Ruddell, Richard Rushforth
Modeling the impacts of Glen Canyon Dam operations on Colorado River resources
At the time of this report, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) is writing two supplemental Environmental Impact Statements (sEIS ) and a new Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that will analyze the effects of changing water flow out of Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) (U.S. Department of Interior, 2024). These actions have the potential to affect downstream resources, including threatened...
Authors
Charles Yackulic, Lucas Bair, Drew Elliot Eppehimer, Gerard Lewis Salter, Bridget Deemer, Bradley J. Butterfield, Alan Kasprak, Joshua J. Caster, Helen C. Fairley, Paul Grams, Bryce Anthony Mihalevich, Emily C. Palmquist, Joel B. Sankey
U.S. Geological Survey Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center: Proceedings of the fiscal year 2023 annual reporting meeting to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program
This proceedings is prepared for the USBR and Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) to account for work conducted and products delivered in FY 2023 by SBSC's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) and to inform the Technical Work Group of science conducted by GCMRC and its cooperators in support of the GCDAMP. It includes a summary of accomplishments...
Authors
Andrew Alan Schultz, Gregory Mark Anderson, David Topping, Ronald E. Griffiths, David Dean, Paul Grams, Keith Kohl, Gerard Lewis Salter, Matthew A. Kaplinski, Katherine Chapman, Erich R. Mueller, Emily C. Palmquist, Bradley J. Butterfield, Joel B. Sankey, Bridget Deemer, Charles Yackulic, Lindsay Erika Hansen, Drew Elliot Eppehimer, Theodore Kennedy, Anya Metcalfe, Jeffrey Muehlbauer, Morgan Ford, Michael Dodrill, Maria C. Dzul, Pilar Rinker, Michael J. Pillow, David Ward, Josh Korman, Molly A.H. Webb, James A. Crossman, Eric J Frye, David L. Rogowski, Kimberley Dibble, Lucas Bair, Joshua Abbott, Thomas Gushue, Erica Paige Byerley, Joseph E Thomas, Thomas A. Sabol, Bryce Anthony Mihalevich
Opportunities for improved consideration of cultural benefits in environmental decision-making
Many cultural benefits of ecosystem services (ES) are difficult to capture in standard ES assessments. Scholars and practitioners often respond to this gap by seeking to develop new scientific methods to capture and integrate the plural values associated with diverse cultural benefits categories. This increasing emphasis on value pluralism represents an essential step toward...
Authors
Kristin R. Hoelting, Joshua M Morse, Rachelle K. Gould, Doreen E. Martinez, Rina S. Hauptfeld, Amanda E. Cravens, Sara J. Breslow, Lucas Bair, Rudy Schuster, Michael C. Gavin
Opportunities for improved consideration of cultural benefits in environmental decision-making
Many cultural benefits of ecosystem services (ES) are difficult to capture in standard ES assessments. Scholars and practitioners often respond to this gap by seeking to develop new scientific methods to capture and integrate the plural values associated with diverse cultural benefits categories. This increasing emphasis on value pluralism represents an essential step toward...
Authors
Kristin R. Hoelting, Joshua W. Morse, Rachelle K. Gould, Doreen E. Martinez, Rina S. Hauptfeld, Amanda E. Cravens, Sara J. Breslow, Lucas Bair, Rudy Schuster, Michael C. Gavin
Recreation use values for water-based recreation
Outdoor recreation is an important and growing activity worldwide. Water-based outdoor recreation is a subset that includes various activities such as fishing, boating, and swimming. While a large portion of water-based recreation is either free or provided at administratively set minimal entrance fees, these activities still involve significant economic value in aggregate. Because many...
Authors
John B. Loomis, Lucas Bair
Human factors used to estimate and forecast water supply and demand in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Water availability is a result of complex interactions between regional water supply and demand and underlying environmental, institutional, and economic determinants. For this study, water availability is defined as “access to a specific quantity and quality of water at a point in time and space, for a specific use, recognizing the social and economic value of water across uses and...
Authors
Nicole M. Herman-Mercer, Lucas Bair, Megan Hines, Diana Restrepo-Osorio, Veronica Romero, Aidan Lyde
Proceedings of the Fiscal Year 2022 Annual Reporting Meeting to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program
(Hartwell) This report is prepared primarily to account for work conducted and products delivered in FY 2022 by GCMRC and to inform the Technical Work Group of science conducted by GCMRC and its cooperators in support of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP). It includes a summary of accomplishments, modifications to work plans, results, and recommendations related to...
Authors
David Topping, Paul Grams, Emily C. Palmquist, Joel B. Sankey, Helen C. Fairley, Bridget Deemer, Charles Yackulic, Theodore Kennedy, Anya Metcalfe, Maria C. Dzul, David Ward, Mariah Aurelia Giardina, Lucas Bair, Thomas Gushue, Caitlin M. Andrews, Ronald E. Griffiths, David Dean, Keith Kohl, Michael J Moran, Nicholas Voichick, Thomas A. Sabol, Laura A. Tennant, Kimberly Dibble, Michael C. Runge
Economic benefits supported by surface water in eastern Oregon’s Harney Basin
The Harney Basin is a closed river basin in southeastern Oregon. Surface water in the basin is used for a variety of social, economic, and ecological benefits. While some surface water uses compete with one another, others are complementary or jointly produce multiple beneficial outcomes. The objective of this study is to conduct a baseline economic assessment of surface water in the...
Authors
Christopher Huber, Matthew Flyr, Lucas Bair
Economic assessment of surface water in the Harney Basin, Oregon
Executive SummaryThe Harney Basin is a closed river basin in southeastern Oregon. Surface water in the basin is used for a variety of social, economic, and ecological benefits. While some surface water uses compete with one another, others are complementary or jointly produce multiple beneficial outcomes. The objective of this study is to conduct an economic assessment of surface water...
Authors
Lucas S. Bair, Matthew Flyr, Christopher Huber
USGS Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse
This online tool was designed to help identify which wildfire hazard and risk assessments are available across the United States. It provides information about available risk assessments and links to assessment data when publicly available.
Science and Products
Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows
Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...
Economics of Outdoor Recreation
Economic research at Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center is used to determine economic benefits of outdoor recreation in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area below Glen Canyon Dam and in Grand Canyon National Park, as affected by operation of Glen Canyon Dam. This research identifies recreationists’ preferences for attributes associated with their trips, spending that occurs regionally...
Evaluations of FSim burn probability maps for pyromes of the conterminous United States based on observed wildfire perimeters
The FSim wildfire simulation model is widely used to generate estimates of burn probability (BP). However, few studies have compared BP models to subsequent wildfires to assess their suitability for estimating near-future wildfire risk. Here, we compared the U.S.D.A. Forest Service’s publicly available BP map for the conterminous U.S. (Short et al., 2020; Dillon et al., 2023) to observed...
Predicted recreation economics under different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases
These data were compiled to predict economic impacts to angling in Glen Canyon and whitewater rafting in Grand Canyon. The objective of our study was to estimate recreation impacts, or changes in consumer surplus, under different future Interim Guidelines sEIS and LTEMP sEIS alternatives. These data include monthly impacts in nominal 2022 dollars. These data were created for operations...
Predicted hydropower impacts of different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases
These data were compiled to predict hourly Glen Canyon Dam operations and hydropower impacts. The objective of our study was to estimate hydropower impacts under different future LTEMP sEIS alternatives. These data represent hourly outflow in cubic feet per second, generation in megawatt hours, and economic value of hydropower in nominal dollars. These data were created for operations at...
The Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Inventory (ver. 2.0, September 2024)
The Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Wildland Fire and USGS created the The Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Inventory to meet the Monitoring, Maintenance, and Treatment Plan requirements under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). It provides an inventory of key national, regional, and state wildfire risk and fire hazard assessments useful for understanding different...
Human Factors of Water Availability in the Delaware River Basin
Human factors that influence water availability in the Basin were discovered by reviewing hundreds of published literature items and articles from the literature following an extensive keyword search. The different factors were drawn from reviewing the literature, and datasets to support the factor were researched across open data catalogs and the world wide web. Data related to the...
Human Factors of Water Availability in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Human factors that influence water availability in the Basin were discovered by reviewing hundreds of published literature items and articles from the literature following an extensive keyword search. The different factors were drawn from reviewing the literature, and datasets to support the factor were researched across open data catalogs and the world wide web. Data related to the...
Bioeconomic model population data, Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA
These data were estimated for use in the bioecomomic model simulation of the rainbow trout population in the Colorado River in Marble Canyon. The initial rainbow trout abundance is a vector (RBT_intN) representing the population of rainbow trout within each river segment (151 mile long sergments) along the mainstem of the Colorado River from Lees Ferry to 151 river miles downstream. The...
Grand Canyon Whitewater Boater Data, Convergent Validity between Willingness to Pay Elicitation Methods
These data were complied for the primary analysis underlying the results presented in the manuscript associated with these data (see Larger Work Citation). The data was collected from a 2015 survey of private party Grand Canyon boaters. The open document file contains 3 data sheets: 1) variables used in the Table 2 comparison of samples, 2) the core dichotomous choice contingent...
Grand Canyon Whitewater Boater Data, Temporal Stability of Willingness to Pay Values
These data were complied for the primary analysis underlying the resuts presented in Neher et al., Testing the Limits of Temporal Stability: Willingness to Pay Values Among Grand Canyon Whitewater Boaters across Decades. The data is a combination of data collected for a 1985 survey of private party Grand Canyon boaters, and a 2015 replication survey for that same recreational user group...
Filter Total Items: 24
Evaluating a simulation-based wildfire burn probability map for the conterminous US
BackgroundWildfire simulation models are used to derive maps of burn probability (BP) based on fuels, weather, topography and ignition locations, and BP maps are key components of wildfire risk assessments.AimsFew studies have compared BP maps with real-world fires to evaluate their suitability for near-future risk assessment. Here, we evaluated a BP map for the conterminous US based on...
Authors
Amanda Renee Carlson, Todd Hawbaker, Lucas Bair, Chad Michael Hoffman, James Meldrum, L. Scott Baggett, Paul F. Steblein
eZ flow metrics: Using z-scores to estimate deviations from natural flow in the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam
River flow patterns are primary drivers of lotic ecosystems, and hundreds of metrics have been developed to quantify flow attributes. Although existing metrics have been a powerful tool in designing environmental flows, they are often developed with specific resources in mind and are rarely directly comparable with each other (i.e., units are often different). Here, we focus on natural...
Authors
Emily C. Palmquist, Bridget Deemer, Anya Metcalfe, Theodore Kennedy, Lucas Bair, Helen C. Fairley, Paul Grams, Joel B. Sankey, Charles Yackulic
Resilient riverine social–ecological systems: A new paradigm to meet global conservation targets
The United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity set forth the 30 × 30 target, an agenda for countries to protect at least 30% of their terrestrial, inland water, and coastal and marine areas by 2030. With
Authors
Denielle M. Perry, Sarah J. Praskievicz, Ryan McManamay, Alark Saxena, K. C. Grimm, Nicholas Zegre, Lucas Bair, Benjamin L. Ruddell, Richard Rushforth
Modeling the impacts of Glen Canyon Dam operations on Colorado River resources
At the time of this report, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) is writing two supplemental Environmental Impact Statements (sEIS ) and a new Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that will analyze the effects of changing water flow out of Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) (U.S. Department of Interior, 2024). These actions have the potential to affect downstream resources, including threatened...
Authors
Charles Yackulic, Lucas Bair, Drew Elliot Eppehimer, Gerard Lewis Salter, Bridget Deemer, Bradley J. Butterfield, Alan Kasprak, Joshua J. Caster, Helen C. Fairley, Paul Grams, Bryce Anthony Mihalevich, Emily C. Palmquist, Joel B. Sankey
U.S. Geological Survey Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center: Proceedings of the fiscal year 2023 annual reporting meeting to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program
This proceedings is prepared for the USBR and Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) to account for work conducted and products delivered in FY 2023 by SBSC's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) and to inform the Technical Work Group of science conducted by GCMRC and its cooperators in support of the GCDAMP. It includes a summary of accomplishments...
Authors
Andrew Alan Schultz, Gregory Mark Anderson, David Topping, Ronald E. Griffiths, David Dean, Paul Grams, Keith Kohl, Gerard Lewis Salter, Matthew A. Kaplinski, Katherine Chapman, Erich R. Mueller, Emily C. Palmquist, Bradley J. Butterfield, Joel B. Sankey, Bridget Deemer, Charles Yackulic, Lindsay Erika Hansen, Drew Elliot Eppehimer, Theodore Kennedy, Anya Metcalfe, Jeffrey Muehlbauer, Morgan Ford, Michael Dodrill, Maria C. Dzul, Pilar Rinker, Michael J. Pillow, David Ward, Josh Korman, Molly A.H. Webb, James A. Crossman, Eric J Frye, David L. Rogowski, Kimberley Dibble, Lucas Bair, Joshua Abbott, Thomas Gushue, Erica Paige Byerley, Joseph E Thomas, Thomas A. Sabol, Bryce Anthony Mihalevich
Opportunities for improved consideration of cultural benefits in environmental decision-making
Many cultural benefits of ecosystem services (ES) are difficult to capture in standard ES assessments. Scholars and practitioners often respond to this gap by seeking to develop new scientific methods to capture and integrate the plural values associated with diverse cultural benefits categories. This increasing emphasis on value pluralism represents an essential step toward...
Authors
Kristin R. Hoelting, Joshua M Morse, Rachelle K. Gould, Doreen E. Martinez, Rina S. Hauptfeld, Amanda E. Cravens, Sara J. Breslow, Lucas Bair, Rudy Schuster, Michael C. Gavin
Opportunities for improved consideration of cultural benefits in environmental decision-making
Many cultural benefits of ecosystem services (ES) are difficult to capture in standard ES assessments. Scholars and practitioners often respond to this gap by seeking to develop new scientific methods to capture and integrate the plural values associated with diverse cultural benefits categories. This increasing emphasis on value pluralism represents an essential step toward...
Authors
Kristin R. Hoelting, Joshua W. Morse, Rachelle K. Gould, Doreen E. Martinez, Rina S. Hauptfeld, Amanda E. Cravens, Sara J. Breslow, Lucas Bair, Rudy Schuster, Michael C. Gavin
Recreation use values for water-based recreation
Outdoor recreation is an important and growing activity worldwide. Water-based outdoor recreation is a subset that includes various activities such as fishing, boating, and swimming. While a large portion of water-based recreation is either free or provided at administratively set minimal entrance fees, these activities still involve significant economic value in aggregate. Because many...
Authors
John B. Loomis, Lucas Bair
Human factors used to estimate and forecast water supply and demand in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Water availability is a result of complex interactions between regional water supply and demand and underlying environmental, institutional, and economic determinants. For this study, water availability is defined as “access to a specific quantity and quality of water at a point in time and space, for a specific use, recognizing the social and economic value of water across uses and...
Authors
Nicole M. Herman-Mercer, Lucas Bair, Megan Hines, Diana Restrepo-Osorio, Veronica Romero, Aidan Lyde
Proceedings of the Fiscal Year 2022 Annual Reporting Meeting to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program
(Hartwell) This report is prepared primarily to account for work conducted and products delivered in FY 2022 by GCMRC and to inform the Technical Work Group of science conducted by GCMRC and its cooperators in support of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP). It includes a summary of accomplishments, modifications to work plans, results, and recommendations related to...
Authors
David Topping, Paul Grams, Emily C. Palmquist, Joel B. Sankey, Helen C. Fairley, Bridget Deemer, Charles Yackulic, Theodore Kennedy, Anya Metcalfe, Maria C. Dzul, David Ward, Mariah Aurelia Giardina, Lucas Bair, Thomas Gushue, Caitlin M. Andrews, Ronald E. Griffiths, David Dean, Keith Kohl, Michael J Moran, Nicholas Voichick, Thomas A. Sabol, Laura A. Tennant, Kimberly Dibble, Michael C. Runge
Economic benefits supported by surface water in eastern Oregon’s Harney Basin
The Harney Basin is a closed river basin in southeastern Oregon. Surface water in the basin is used for a variety of social, economic, and ecological benefits. While some surface water uses compete with one another, others are complementary or jointly produce multiple beneficial outcomes. The objective of this study is to conduct a baseline economic assessment of surface water in the...
Authors
Christopher Huber, Matthew Flyr, Lucas Bair
Economic assessment of surface water in the Harney Basin, Oregon
Executive SummaryThe Harney Basin is a closed river basin in southeastern Oregon. Surface water in the basin is used for a variety of social, economic, and ecological benefits. While some surface water uses compete with one another, others are complementary or jointly produce multiple beneficial outcomes. The objective of this study is to conduct an economic assessment of surface water...
Authors
Lucas S. Bair, Matthew Flyr, Christopher Huber
USGS Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse
This online tool was designed to help identify which wildfire hazard and risk assessments are available across the United States. It provides information about available risk assessments and links to assessment data when publicly available.